Monday February 4, 2013 - 11:16:43 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 04-Feb-2013 -1113 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 0.9086/89...Mixed
R: 0.9165 / 0.9300 / 0.9390
S: 0.9070 / 0.900 / 0.8930 / 0.8850
Dollar-Swiss had a very weak week as it lost a lot of ground from 0.9259 to 0.9080. It also gave a break below 0.9070 which made us think that the 0.9070-9400 range has been broken but then a strong bounce seen in the later part of Friday which made the pair close above 0.9070. It is not clear if 0.9070-0.9400 range is broken or not. Also the earlier support of 0.9080 on the monthly charts has now moved to 0.9070. Hence if we see the pair holding 0.9070 support and bouncing from here then a rally towards 0.9160 and 0.9300 can easily be seen. On the other hand if 0.9070 is broken strongly then a further fall towards 0.9000, 0.8930 and 8850 can then become possible. Going forwards it is though to say which one of these will happen, we will have to wait and watch before we take any positions. The short term charts are looking oversold and a short covering rally to 0.9160-80 cannot be ruled out after which the chances of a fall back to 0.9070 and a break of it can then be seen. Wait and watch.
Take Shorts if it turns down from 0.9160.
GBP-USD @ 1.5700/03...Further weakness is likely
R: 1.5770 / 1.5850 / 1.6000 /
S: 1.5680 / 1.5620 / 1.5500
Cable also had a bad week as it ended up losing 82 pips through the week. After it fell in the first half of the week it took support near 1.5680 which is its support on the weekly candle charts. As it held the support and moved up it looked as if the down move was over and we can see the pair rising further up. But then on the rise it faced resistance near 1.5900 and turned down again. Going forward we expect it to break its 1.5690 support on the weekly Candle charts and to move lower towards 1.5620-00 which is a support on monthly charts and further lower levels of 1.5270-50 cannot be ruled out on the break of 1.5620-00. The fact that cable could not break 1.5900 and has turned down shows that the down side is not over yet and we are likely to see further lower levels in the coming days.
AUD-USD @ 1.0440/43...Ranged
R: 1.0430 / 1.0500 / 1.0580-600
S: 1.0385 / 1.0355 / 1.0280 / 1.0150
Aussie ended the week very flat. It dipped in the first half of the week to take support near 1.0385 levels which is also its 200 EMA on the daily charts from where it bounced back. It looked like it will trade in the 1.0600-400 range, but then the bounce from 1.0385 was not sustainable and it dipped again this time breaking below 1.0385. Going forward it seems that Aussie will trade in the 1.0600-350 range or there are also chances of it breaking the range on the down side for a dip towards 1.0150. As of now the chances of both of these happening is quite equal. Dips to 1.0350 can be used to take long positions with tight stop and failure to rise beyond 1.0430 should be a prior signal that the support of 1.0350 can break. RBA meeting is scheduled on 05-Feb-13, the expectation for the same are for the interest rates to be kept at the current levels. If the rates are cut then a break of 1.0350 can be seen.
Limit Buy Order
Buy AUD 10K at 1.0360, SL 1.0325, TP 1.0480
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