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Monday February 4, 2013 - 11:30:51 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral yields rise in session; Growing political scandal undermining renewed confidence in Spanish debt while the Italian political race continues to tighten

Monday, February 04, 2013 5:44:10 AM
 TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral yields rise in session; Growing political scandal undermining renewed confidence in Spanish debt while the Italian political race continues to tighten
***Notes/Observations***
- China services PMI hits 5-month high (11th straight month of expansion)
- JGB yields move higher on reports that Japan Govt Pension Fund (size $1.1T and world largest) mulling lower allocation to domestic bonds
- European Peripheral bond yield moved to 1-month with Spain Rajoy facing corruption allegations while Italian elections becoming a real horse race
- Spain PM Rajoy and Germany Chancellor Merkel to meet in Berlin today, ahead of the EU Leader summit at the end of the week.

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Q4 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 1.11 v 1.02 prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FIPE CPI Monthly: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (ES) Spain Jan Net Unemployment M/M: +132.1K v +150.0Ke
- (TR) Turkey Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 1.7% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 7.3% v 6.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.7%e
- (TR) Turkey Jan Producer Prices M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.5% prior
- (EU) ECB: 7M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 335.0M prior; 180.95B parked in deposit facility vs. 185.4B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 14.1% v 1.8% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Sentix Investor Confidence: -3.9 v -1.7e (18th straight negative reading) >- (UK) Jan PMI Construction: 48.7 v 49.2e (4th straight contraction)
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
- (DE) German Jan new car registrations 192K, -8.5% y/y - VDIK

Fixed Income:
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3B vs. NOK3.0B in 10-month Bills; Yield 1.77%
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 3.71B vs. 5.0B indicated in 3-month and 6-month bills
- Sells 2.76B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: 0.000% v -0.011% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.64x v 2.1x prior
- Sells 1.03B vs. 2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.021% v -0.007% prior; Bid-to-cover:3.17x v 3.6x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities*** >Indices: FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,326, DAX -0.10% at 7,824, CAC-40 -0.20% at 3,766, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8,191, FTSE MIB -1.5% at 17,059, SMI +0.24% at 7,438, S&P 500 Futures flat 1,507

- European equity markets are mostly lower, as political concerns have weighed on the FTSE MIB in Italy. European banks are mostly lower, led by declines in Italian banks. Resource related firms are broadly lower, in line with the declines being seen for commodity prices. Looking ahead this week will be heavy, in terms of major European corporate earnings. Additionally, traders are expected to focus on central bank meetings (ECB and BoE to meet on Thursday) and data out of China (including monthly CPI and trade balance).

- UK movers [Vodafone -1.5% (broker commentary), Stagecoach -1.2% (broker commentary); Salamader Energy +11% (oil find), Randgold +2% (Q4 results)]
- Germany movers [SDF -2% (broker commentary), Linde -1% (broker commentary); Symrise +3% (broker commentary), E.ON +2% (union suspended planned strikes)]
- France movers [Renault -1.5% (broker commentary), Thales -0.50% (probe related to 787 battery fires)]
Italy movers [Monte Paschi -5% (ongoing concerns related to derivatives transactions),Unicredit -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Swatch +2% (FY12 earnings, dividend) ; Meyer Burger -5% (capital raise concerns), Julius Baer -2% (FY results)]
- The Netherlands movers [Imtech -35% (impairment charge and probe related to Polish unit)]

Speakers: >- ECB Draghi noted that the promissory note used to bailout Anglo Irish was not marketable in a letter to Irish opposition Fin Min and would continue to discuss what was achievable within the context of existing treaties
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany) stated that he did not see Spain's economy growing until 2014
- German Chancellor Merkel's Cabinet expected to pass bank-separation plan this week
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov commented that considering a lower rate on its loan to Cyprus and said to be leaning to rolling over existing loan to Cyprus. He also noted that Russia Inflation could slow to 3-4% by 2018 and that Russia had no timeframe on Eurobond sale; will look to 2012 issuance for yield guidance
- Spain Bank Rescue fund (FROB) lent 953M to Deposit Guarantee Fund. FGD borrowed funds for nine months to cover costs of injecting funds into Unnim before its sale to BBVA
- Shadow MPC said to have voted 6 to 3 for surprise interest rate hike at this week's BOE rate decision citing fiscal policy being off course. The recent lull in the EMU crisis was also provided an opportunity to raise rates while the markets were calm (**Note: BOE interest rate decision on Thursday, Fen 7th with all analysts expecting the BOE to keep both interest rates and asset purchase target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- IEA Chief Economist Birol: High oil prices are a hurdle for the global economic recovery

Currencies:
- The Euro encountered some headwinds to have it pause from its recent strength. Peripheral bond yield moved to 1-month highs on the European open with Spain Rajoy facing corruption allegations while the election in Italy had contender Berlusconi narrowing the front-runners lead. Citigroup commented on the ECB rate decision this week and saw Draghi as opening the door for a future rate cut during the post rate decision press conference, Analyst cited tighter financing conditions following the run-up in money market rates and recent Euro currency appreciation. Over the weekend France Fin Min Moscovici reiterated his view that that the Euro might be "possibly becoming too strong".
- JPY currency weakened to test the 93 handle against the USD for fresh 33-month lows for the yen. The USD/JPY has weakened around 7.5% in 2013 thus far. EUR/JPY cross was making its way towards the 127 neighborhood. Dealers noted Japan's finance minister commented that ending the yen's long-running uptrend remained a top priority for the government, suggesting the currency's recent weakening did not yet satisfy the nation's leadership.
- The GBP/USD was firmer in the session. Dealers were unsure just exactly how persuasive the Shadow MPC was in which reports that it voted 6 to 3 for surprise interest rate hike at this week's BOE rate decision citing fiscal policy being off course (**Note: Symbolic vote)
- The AUD/USD was steady at 1.0420 area ahead of the RBA decision on Tuesday with most forecasts having the central bank holding rates steady at 3.00%

Political/ In the Papers:
- Japan Fin Min Aso said the Japanese government is modeling policy after measures adopted during 1930s Depression by Fin Min Takahashi, who told BOJ to underwrite govt debt to fund spending reported the Japanese press.
- Spain PM Rajoy denied allegations of graft that were raised in Spanish press this week during a televised address to party leaders gathered at an emergency meeting today to address the allegations that for years he and other People's Party members received kickbacks from a slush fund controlled by the party treasurer.
- (ES) Spain's opposition Socialist Party calling for resignation of PM Rajoy amid corruption allegations - financial press; Latest polls showing support for Rajoy's People's Party at 23.9%, record low and down from 29.9% in prior month.
- France Fin Min Moscovic was reported as saying "The euro is stable, the euro is strong, perhaps too strong in some regards. in the French press
- US Port strikers reach deal. Federal mediators say a tentative deal has been reached between companies and longshoremen at east coast and gulf coast ports. An agreement was reached late Friday night covering 14,650 port workers from Boston to Houston who handle container cargo, averting strike actions threatened by the longshoremen's union
- (EU) China Sovereign Wealth Fund CIC Chairman Jin: CIC believes its a good time to invest in Europe
- (CY) Cyprus central bank: Study into the extent of exposure to Greek banking system has been submitted as part of EU bailout request
- (IT) Italy former PM Berlusconi: Promises to abolish a tax on primary residences and refund property taxes forced by the Monti govt - financial press
- (UK) Chancellor Osborne in last-minute discussions for power to split up banks - British press
-(CN) China PBoC Chief Zhou said to be stepping down in March - Chinese press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italian Court holds Final Berlusconi Hearing
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell Bills and Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell NOK3.0B in 10-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Jan Purchasing Managers Index: 48.8e v 48.6 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 47.1e v 46.6 prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 6.2-7.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB call for bids in main 7-day Refi Tender
- 09:45 (US) Jan ISM New York: No est v 54.3 prior
- 10:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel meets Spain PM Rajoy in Berlin
- 10:00 (US) Dec Factory Orders: 2.3%e v 0.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Durable Goods revisions
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Jan Foreign Currency Reserves (DKK): No est v 504.0B prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $2.75-3.50B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $60B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.0% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Average Hourly Earnings Q/Q: 0.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Private Wages Excluding Overtime Q/Q: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior; Including Overtime Q/Q: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 22:20 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Target unchanged at 3.00%

- Source TradeTheNews.com
Monday, February 04, 2013 5:44:10 AM
 TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral yields rise in session; Growing political scandal undermining renewed confidence in Spanish debt while the Italian political race continues to tighten
***Notes/Observations***
- China services PMI hits 5-month high (11th straight month of expansion)
- JGB yields move higher on reports that Japan Govt Pension Fund (size $1.1T and world largest) mulling lower allocation to domestic bonds
- European Peripheral bond yield moved to 1-month with Spain Rajoy facing corruption allegations while Italian elections becoming a real horse race
- Spain PM Rajoy and Germany Chancellor Merkel to meet in Berlin today, ahead of the EU Leader summit at the end of the week.

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Q4 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 1.11 v 1.02 prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FIPE CPI Monthly: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (ES) Spain Jan Net Unemployment M/M: +132.1K v +150.0Ke
- (TR) Turkey Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 1.7% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 7.3% v 6.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.7%e
- (TR) Turkey Jan Producer Prices M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.5% prior
- (EU) ECB: 7M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 335.0M prior; 180.95B parked in deposit facility vs. 185.4B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 14.1% v 1.8% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Sentix Investor Confidence: -3.9 v -1.7e (18th straight negative reading) >- (UK) Jan PMI Construction: 48.7 v 49.2e (4th straight contraction)
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
- (DE) German Jan new car registrations 192K, -8.5% y/y - VDIK

Fixed Income:
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3B vs. NOK3.0B in 10-month Bills; Yield 1.77%
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 3.71B vs. 5.0B indicated in 3-month and 6-month bills
- Sells 2.76B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: 0.000% v -0.011% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.64x v 2.1x prior
- Sells 1.03B vs. 2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.021% v -0.007% prior; Bid-to-cover:3.17x v 3.6x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities*** >Indices: FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,326, DAX -0.10% at 7,824, CAC-40 -0.20% at 3,766, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8,191, FTSE MIB -1.5% at 17,059, SMI +0.24% at 7,438, S&P 500 Futures flat 1,507

- European equity markets are mostly lower, as political concerns have weighed on the FTSE MIB in Italy. European banks are mostly lower, led by declines in Italian banks. Resource related firms are broadly lower, in line with the declines being seen for commodity prices. Looking ahead this week will be heavy, in terms of major European corporate earnings. Additionally, traders are expected to focus on central bank meetings (ECB and BoE to meet on Thursday) and data out of China (including monthly CPI and trade balance).

- UK movers [Vodafone -1.5% (broker commentary), Stagecoach -1.2% (broker commentary); Salamader Energy +11% (oil find), Randgold +2% (Q4 results)]
- Germany movers [SDF -2% (broker commentary), Linde -1% (broker commentary); Symrise +3% (broker commentary), E.ON +2% (union suspended planned strikes)]
- France movers [Renault -1.5% (broker commentary), Thales -0.50% (probe related to 787 battery fires)]
Italy movers [Monte Paschi -5% (ongoing concerns related to derivatives transactions),Unicredit -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Swatch +2% (FY12 earnings, dividend) ; Meyer Burger -5% (capital raise concerns), Julius Baer -2% (FY results)]
- The Netherlands movers [Imtech -35% (impairment charge and probe related to Polish unit)]

Speakers: >- ECB Draghi noted that the promissory note used to bailout Anglo Irish was not marketable in a letter to Irish opposition Fin Min and would continue to discuss what was achievable within the context of existing treaties
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany) stated that he did not see Spain's economy growing until 2014
- German Chancellor Merkel's Cabinet expected to pass bank-separation plan this week
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov commented that considering a lower rate on its loan to Cyprus and said to be leaning to rolling over existing loan to Cyprus. He also noted that Russia Inflation could slow to 3-4% by 2018 and that Russia had no timeframe on Eurobond sale; will look to 2012 issuance for yield guidance
- Spain Bank Rescue fund (FROB) lent 953M to Deposit Guarantee Fund. FGD borrowed funds for nine months to cover costs of injecting funds into Unnim before its sale to BBVA
- Shadow MPC said to have voted 6 to 3 for surprise interest rate hike at this week's BOE rate decision citing fiscal policy being off course. The recent lull in the EMU crisis was also provided an opportunity to raise rates while the markets were calm (**Note: BOE interest rate decision on Thursday, Fen 7th with all analysts expecting the BOE to keep both interest rates and asset purchase target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- IEA Chief Economist Birol: High oil prices are a hurdle for the global economic recovery

Currencies:
- The Euro encountered some headwinds to have it pause from its recent strength. Peripheral bond yield moved to 1-month highs on the European open with Spain Rajoy facing corruption allegations while the election in Italy had contender Berlusconi narrowing the front-runners lead. Citigroup commented on the ECB rate decision this week and saw Draghi as opening the door for a future rate cut during the post rate decision press conference, Analyst cited tighter financing conditions following the run-up in money market rates and recent Euro currency appreciation. Over the weekend France Fin Min Moscovici reiterated his view that that the Euro might be "possibly becoming too strong".
- JPY currency weakened to test the 93 handle against the USD for fresh 33-month lows for the yen. The USD/JPY has weakened around 7.5% in 2013 thus far. EUR/JPY cross was making its way towards the 127 neighborhood. Dealers noted Japan's finance minister commented that ending the yen's long-running uptrend remained a top priority for the government, suggesting the currency's recent weakening did not yet satisfy the nation's leadership.
- The GBP/USD was firmer in the session. Dealers were unsure just exactly how persuasive the Shadow MPC was in which reports that it voted 6 to 3 for surprise interest rate hike at this week's BOE rate decision citing fiscal policy being off course (**Note: Symbolic vote)
- The AUD/USD was steady at 1.0420 area ahead of the RBA decision on Tuesday with most forecasts having the central bank holding rates steady at 3.00%

Political/ In the Papers:
- Japan Fin Min Aso said the Japanese government is modeling policy after measures adopted during 1930s Depression by Fin Min Takahashi, who told BOJ to underwrite govt debt to fund spending reported the Japanese press.
- Spain PM Rajoy denied allegations of graft that were raised in Spanish press this week during a televised address to party leaders gathered at an emergency meeting today to address the allegations that for years he and other People's Party members received kickbacks from a slush fund controlled by the party treasurer.
- (ES) Spain's opposition Socialist Party calling for resignation of PM Rajoy amid corruption allegations - financial press; Latest polls showing support for Rajoy's People's Party at 23.9%, record low and down from 29.9% in prior month.
- France Fin Min Moscovic was reported as saying "The euro is stable, the euro is strong, perhaps too strong in some regards. in the French press
- US Port strikers reach deal. Federal mediators say a tentative deal has been reached between companies and longshoremen at east coast and gulf coast ports. An agreement was reached late Friday night covering 14,650 port workers from Boston to Houston who handle container cargo, averting strike actions threatened by the longshoremen's union
- (EU) China Sovereign Wealth Fund CIC Chairman Jin: CIC believes its a good time to invest in Europe
- (CY) Cyprus central bank: Study into the extent of exposure to Greek banking system has been submitted as part of EU bailout request
- (IT) Italy former PM Berlusconi: Promises to abolish a tax on primary residences and refund property taxes forced by the Monti govt - financial press
- (UK) Chancellor Osborne in last-minute discussions for power to split up banks - British press
-(CN) China PBoC Chief Zhou said to be stepping down in March - Chinese press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italian Court holds Final Berlusconi Hearing
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell Bills and Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell NOK3.0B in 10-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Jan Purchasing Managers Index: 48.8e v 48.6 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 47.1e v 46.6 prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 6.2-7.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB call for bids in main 7-day Refi Tender
- 09:45 (US) Jan ISM New York: No est v 54.3 prior
- 10:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel meets Spain PM Rajoy in Berlin
- 10:00 (US) Dec Factory Orders: 2.3%e v 0.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Durable Goods revisions
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Jan Foreign Currency Reserves (DKK): No est v 504.0B prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $2.75-3.50B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $60B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.0% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Average Hourly Earnings Q/Q: 0.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Private Wages Excluding Overtime Q/Q: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior; Including Overtime Q/Q: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 22:20 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Target unchanged at 3.00%

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Monday, February 04, 2013 5:44:10 AM

 TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral yields rise in session; Growing political scandal undermining renewed confidence in Spanish debt while the Italian political race continues to tighten

***Notes/Observations***
- China services PMI hits 5-month high (11th straight month of expansion)
- JGB yields move higher on reports that Japan Govt Pension Fund (size $1.1T and world largest) mulling lower allocation to domestic bonds
- European Peripheral bond yield moved to 1-month with Spain Rajoy facing corruption allegations while Italian elections becoming a real horse race
- Spain PM Rajoy and Germany Chancellor Merkel to meet in Berlin today, ahead of the EU Leader summit at the end of the week.

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Q4 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 1.11 v 1.02 prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FIPE CPI Monthly: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (ES) Spain Jan Net Unemployment M/M: +132.1K v +150.0Ke
- (TR) Turkey Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 1.7% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 7.3% v 6.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.7%e
- (TR) Turkey Jan Producer Prices M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.5% prior
- (EU) ECB: 7M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 335.0M prior; 180.95B parked in deposit facility vs. 185.4B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 14.1% v 1.8% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Sentix Investor Confidence: -3.9 v -1.7e (18th straight negative reading) </
>- (UK) Jan PMI Construction: 48.7 v 49.2e (4th straight contraction)
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
- (DE) German Jan new car registrations 192K, -8.5% y/y - VDIK

Fixed Income:
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3B vs.
NOK3.0B in 10-month Bills; Yield 1.77%
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 3.71B vs. 5.0B indicated in 3-month and 6-month bills
- Sells 2.76B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: 0.000% v -0.011% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.64x v 2.1x prior
- Sells 1.03B vs. 2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.021% v -0.007% prior; Bid-to-cover:3.17x v 3.6x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities*** </
>Indices: FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,326, DAX -0.10% at 7,824, CAC-40 -0.20% at 3,766, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8,191, FTSE MIB -1.5% at 17,059, SMI +0.24% at 7,438, S&P 500 Futures flat 1,507

- European equity markets are mostly lower, as political concerns have weighed on the FTSE MIB in Italy. European banks are mostly lower, led by declines in Italian banks. Resource related firms are broadly lower, in line with the declines being seen for commodity prices. Looking ahead this week will be heavy, in terms of major European corporate earnings. Additionally, traders are expected to focus on central bank meetings (ECB and BoE to meet on Thursday) and data out of
China (including monthly CPI and trade balance).

- UK movers [Vodafone -1.5% (broker commentary), Stagecoach -1.2% (broker commentary); Salamader Energy +11% (oil find), Randgold +2% (Q4 results)]
- Germany movers [SDF -2% (broker commentary), Linde -1% (broker commentary); Symrise +3% (broker commentary), E.ON +2% (union suspended planned strikes)]
- France movers [Renault -1.5% (broker commentary), Thales -0.50% (probe related to 787 battery fires)]
Italy movers [Monte Paschi -5% (ongoing concerns related to derivatives transactions),Unicredit -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Swatch +2% (FY12 earnings, dividend) ; Meyer Burger -5% (capital raise concerns), Julius Baer -2% (FY results)]
- The Netherlands movers [Imtech -35% (impairment charge and probe related to Polish unit)]

Speakers: </
>- ECB Draghi noted that the promissory note used to bailout Anglo Irish was not marketable in a letter to Irish opposition Fin Min and would continue to discuss what was achievable within the context of existing treaties
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany) stated that he did not see Spain's economy growing until 2014
- German Chancellor Merkel's Cabinet expected to pass bank-separation plan this week
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov commented that considering a lower rate on its loan to Cyprus and said to be leaning to rolling over existing loan to Cyprus. He also noted that Russia Inflation could slow to 3-4% by 2018 and that
Russia had no timeframe on Eurobond sale; will look to 2012 issuance for yield guidance
- Spain Bank Rescue fund (FROB) lent 953M to Deposit Guarantee Fund. FGD borrowed funds for nine months to cover costs of injecting funds into Unnim before its sale to BBVA
- Shadow MPC said to have voted 6 to 3 for surprise interest rate hike at this week's BOE rate decision citing fiscal policy being off course. The recent lull in the EMU crisis was also provided an opportunity to raise rates while the markets were calm (**Note: BOE interest rate decision on Thursday, Fen 7th with all analysts expecting the BOE to keep both interest rates and asset purchase target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- IEA Chief Economist Birol: High oil prices are a hurdle for the global economic recovery

Currencies:
- The Euro encountered some headwinds to have it pause from its recent strength. Peripheral bond yield moved to 1-month highs on the European open with Spain Rajoy facing corruption allegations while the election in
Italy had contender Berlusconi narrowing the front-runners lead. Citigroup commented on the ECB rate decision this week and saw Draghi as opening the door for a future rate cut during the post rate decision press conference, Analyst cited tighter financing conditions following the run-up in money market rates and recent Euro currency appreciation. Over the weekend France Fin Min Moscovici reiterated his view that that the Euro might be "possibly becoming too strong".
- JPY currency weakened to test the 93 handle against the USD for fresh 33-month lows for the yen. The USD/JPY has weakened around 7.5% in 2013 thus far. EUR/JPY cross was making its way towards the 127 neighborhood. Dealers noted
Japan's finance minister commented that ending the yen's long-running uptrend remained a top priority for the government, suggesting the currency's recent weakening did not yet satisfy the nation's leadership.
- The GBP/USD was firmer in the session. Dealers were unsure just exactly how persuasive the Shadow MPC was in which reports that it voted 6 to 3 for surprise interest rate hike at this week's BOE rate decision citing fiscal policy being off course (**Note: Symbolic vote)
- The AUD/USD was steady at 1.0420 area ahead of the RBA decision on Tuesday with most forecasts having the central bank holding rates steady at 3.00%

Political/ In the Papers:
- Japan Fin Min Aso said the Japanese government is modeling policy after measures adopted during 1930s Depression by Fin Min Takahashi, who told BOJ to underwrite govt debt to fund spending reported the Japanese press.
- Spain PM Rajoy denied allegations of graft that were raised in Spanish press this week during a televised address to party leaders gathered at an emergency meeting today to address the allegations that for years he and other People's Party members received kickbacks from a slush fund controlled by the party treasurer.
- (ES) Spain's opposition Socialist Party calling for resignation of PM Rajoy amid corruption allegations - financial press; Latest polls showing support for Rajoy's People's Party at 23.9%, record low and down from 29.9% in prior month.
- France Fin Min Moscovic was reported as saying "The euro is stable, the euro is strong, perhaps too strong in some regards. in the French press
- US Port strikers reach deal. Federal mediators say a tentative deal has been reached between companies and longshoremen at east coast and gulf coast ports. An agreement was reached late Friday night covering 14,650 port workers from Boston to Houston who handle container cargo, averting strike actions threatened by the longshoremen's union
- (EU) China Sovereign Wealth Fund CIC Chairman Jin: CIC believes its a good time to invest in Europe
- (CY) Cyprus central bank: Study into the extent of exposure to Greek banking system has been submitted as part of EU bailout request
- (IT) Italy former PM Berlusconi: Promises to abolish a tax on primary residences and refund property taxes forced by the Monti govt - financial press
- (UK) Chancellor Osborne in last-minute discussions for power to split up banks - British press
-(CN) China PBoC Chief Zhou said to be stepping down in March - Chinese press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italian Court holds Final Berlusconi Hearing
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell Bills and Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell NOK3.0B in 10-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Jan Purchasing Managers Index: 48.8e v 48.6 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 47.1e v 46.6 prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 6.2-7.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB call for bids in main 7-day Refi Tender
- 09:45 (US) Jan ISM New York: No est v 54.3 prior
- 10:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel meets Spain PM Rajoy in Berlin
- 10:00 (US) Dec Factory Orders: 2.3%e v 0.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Durable Goods revisions
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Jan Foreign Currency Reserves (DKK): No est v 504.0B prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $2.75-3.50B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $60B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.0% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Average Hourly Earnings Q/Q: 0.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Private Wages Excluding Overtime Q/Q: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior; Including Overtime Q/Q: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 22:20 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Target unchanged at 3.00%

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Trading Ideas for 15 December 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

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Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

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Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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