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CURRENCY WARS: EURUSD falls suddenly on political and banking worries in Europe. Japan FinMin Aso favors more JPY weakness
|CURRENCY WARS: EURUSD falls suddenly on political and banking worries in Europe. Japan FinMin Aso favors more JPY weakness|
5 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: AU- Trade, RBA. Europe: CH- Trade, EZ- final SVC PMI, Retail Sales, GB- SVC PMI. North America: US- SVC PMI, API Energy
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Trade, RBA Decision, EZ/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales. US- Service PMI
- CURRENCY WARS: Whoa talk about a reversal of fortunes. The EUR has suddenly become the focus of trade after political and banking scandals came to the fore during N.Y. trading hours. The EURUSD was in a leadership role and dragged the highly correlated equity indices lower.
- Worth repeating, Japanese FinMIn Aso Monday said that the government continues to seek a further weakening of the currency,
- On the other hand, over the weekend. French FinMin about the strength of the currency.
- Markets are starting to look ahead to possible fireworks at the G20 conference of FinMIns and Central Bankers in Moscow on February 15-16 . Many expect currency value manipulation (JPY) to be a major discussion topic.
- Except for Canada (Wed), Tuesday sees the final wave of PMI releases.
- This is also the first full week of the month so there will be a number of central bank meetings starting with the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday. It has not met since early December. The tone of the RBA policy statement will be watched as closely as their rate posture. On Thursday, both the Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce their latest policy decisions. No rate changes are foreseen. a slew of U.K. data are due over the week while this is a relatively slow period for high-impact data items from the U.S. .
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3372. the 10-yr bund is 1.62%, -4 bp. European bourses are down. U.S. shares are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 1.97%, -4bp.
- Key Far East bourses were mixed. The 10-yr JGB is 0.81%, +4bp. The USDJPY 20-day average is 89.84. EURJPY 20-day average is 120.61.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com has been a forex trader and a FX analyst for a top N.Y. Fed watching service. Previously he was an FX consultant to major institutions. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
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