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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European PMI Services data see improvement and help quell some political concerns in the periphery; BOJ Gov to step down 3 weeks earlier than planned

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European PMI Services data see improvement and help quell some political concerns in the periphery; BOJ Gov to step down 3 weeks earlier than planned
Tue, 05 Feb 2013 5:38 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- RBA leaves interest rates unchanged (as expected) with bias towards easing

- Australia Dec Trade Balance registers its 12th straight deficit but smallest in 6 months
- China Jan HSBC PMI Services hits 4-month high
- (CN) China PBoC to offer CNY450B in 14-day reverse repos (largest one-day injection on record)
- (EU) Netherlands, Finland and Germany said to have sought to bring forward measures to impose losses on senior bank bondholders
- European PMI Services come in better than expected across the board
- BOJ Gov Shirakawa to down a few weeks early to coincide with departure of two Deputy members


***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Dec Trade Balance (CHF): 1.0B v 2.0Be; Real Exports M/M: -1.5% v 5.5% prior; Real Imports M/M: 5.5% v 4.5% prior

- (IE) Ireland Jan NCB Services PMI: 56.8 v 55.8 prior; (highest since Aug 2007)
- (FI) Finland Nov GDP Indicator WD: -1.2% v -0.7% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan PMI Services: 52.4 v 51.2e
- (CZ) Czech Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.1% v -5.7%e
- (EU) ECB: 116M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 7.0M prior; 176.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 181.0B prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Services PMI: 47.0 v 44.2e
- (TW) Taiwan Jan Foreign Exchange Reserves: $406.6B v $403.2B prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Service Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v -0.1%e
- (IT) Italy Jan PMI Services: 43.9 v 45.8e (20th straight contraction); Employment Index: 41.9 v 43.7 prior (lowest reading in 15 years since series began)
- (FR) France Jan Final PMI Services: 43.6 v 43.6e; lowest since March 2009 and 6th straight monthly contraction
- (DE) Germany Jan Final PMI Services: 55.7 v 55.3e; second month of growth
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Final PMI Services: 48.6 v 48.3e (highest seen March 2012); PMI Composite: 48.6 v 48.2e

- (DE) Germany Dec machinery orders +4.0% y/y (Domestic +1% y/y, Foreign +5% y/y) - VDMA
- (UK) Jan PMI Services: 51.5 v 49.5e, highest reading since Sept 2012
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 Unemployment Rate: 24.9% v 25.7%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Retail Sales M/M: -0.8% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -3.4% v -1.4%e
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI Harmonized M/M: -2.0% v -1.9%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.6%e
- (RO) Romania Central left Interest Rate unchanged at 5.25%

Fixed Income
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs. ZAR2.1B indicated in 2026, 2031 and 2041 bonds
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.6B in 2023 and 2029 Bonds
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total 1.1B vs. 1.1B indicated in 2019 and 2022 RAGB bonds
- Sold 550M in 3.40% Nov 2022 RAGB; Avg Yield 1.934% v 1.838% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.48x v 3.47x prior
- Sold 550M in 1.95% Jun 2019 RAGB; Avg Yield 1.294% v 1.021% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.60x v 2.56x prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 812.5M vs. 625M indicated in 26-week Bills; Avg Yield 4.27% v 4.30% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.68x v 1.62x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF938.8M in 3-Month Bills: Yield: -0.090% v -0.087% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 229.3B vs. 122Be in 7-day Main Refi Tender (MRO) at fixed 0.75%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF50B indicated 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield 5.30% v 5.42% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.87x v 2.02x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 1.1B in 0.125% I/L 2024 Gilts; Real Yield -0.844% v -0.583% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.97x v 2.37x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 3.041B vs. 2.8-3.3B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold 1.504B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield +0.038% v 0.012% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.42x v 2.34x prior
- Sold 1.541B in 6-month Bills; Avg yield +0.075% v +0.011% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.23x v 2.23x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
- FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,265,
DAX -0.10% at 7,630, CAC-40 +0.30% at 3,670, IBEX-35 +0.80% at 7,984, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 16,593, SMI +0.40% at 7,394, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,498

- European equity markets are broadly higher, as Spanish and Italian equities rebounded from the sharp losses seen during the prior session. Germany's DAX has underperformed amid weakness in Bayer and the auto sector. Banks in Spain and Italy have led today's gains in the financial sector, while shares of Commerzbank have lagged. UBS' shares have moved between gains and losses, following the firm's Q4 earnings report.

- UK movers [Virgin Media +14% (confirms talks with Liberty Global), ARM Holdings +3.5% (Q4 results), BP +1.5% (Q4 results) ; Shanks -3% (trading update), BG -1.5% (production outlook)]
- Germany movers [MunichRe +2% (Q4 results),HeidelbergCement +1% (broker commentary);HannoverRe -0.50% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Bonduelle +1.5% (H1 sales)]
- Switzerland movers [Givaudan +3.5% (FY results), UBS has moved between gains and losses (Q4 results)]
- The Netherlands movers [KPN -20% (rights offering)]

Speakers:
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gov Shirakawa announced he would to step down on March 19th

along with two Deputy governors. (**Note: BOJ gov term was to end in April 8th 2013)
- France President Hollande commented that Europe was leaving Euro currency too vulnerable to variations and needed an exchange rate policy. He noted that the worst of the EMU crisis had passed but not all lessons learned as national interests precede that of Europe. He stressed that surplus countries needed to increase their economies
- Spain PM Rajoy admits some of the things reported about him in the press were true during meeting with German Chancellor Merkel- El Pais
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) commented that the economic activity weakened in winter period particularly in export sector and saw few concrete signs of an upturn in economy. It noted that the retail sector was more stable. The strong SEK currency level was squeezing profitability of exporters while new orders for sector were low. Company survey stated plans to continue cutting workforce in Q1
- Japan Econ Panel member Ito: Inflation target means bold easing in place until 2% target achieved. Must be mindful of weak yen and JGB when fighting deflation. He noted that the recent price action of strong KRW (won) and Euro currencies suggested a rise in risk appetite

Currencies:
- The European session began on a cautious note as peripheral yields initially moved higher by over 6bps for both Italy and Spain. Dealers noted that press reports that Spain PM Rajoy admitted to some of the things reported about him in the press as be possibly were true during meeting with German Chancellor Merkel weighed upon sentiment. The EUR/USD tested 1.3460 before steadying and moving back abovbe the 1.35 handle. The better Services PMI throughout Europe might have been a factor in turning around the sentiment. Dealers also noted that Middle Eastern names came in to buy the EUR/JPY cross. Nonetheless dealers continued to believe Euro zone politics would temper the EUR upside. But the auctions later this week will be key in gauging the extent of the political risk. Some analysts think Spanish banks repayment of three-year LTRO funds might weigh on upcoming bond sales
- The JPY turned weaker during the session ahead of the announcement that BOJ Gov Shirakawa would step down three weeks earlier than expected to coincide with departure of two Deputy members. The JPY also saw good sellers out of the Middle East
- The ECB allotment in the 7-day MRO continued to be in line with past weekly amounts. Some dealers were noting that US subsidiaries of the European banks might be taking cash from the Fed and using it to repay theECB. That is also said to be one reason for EUR/USD's recent sharp rise following the 3-year LTRO repayment

Political/ In the Papers:
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: BoJ will decide policy; govt accord will not undermine BoJ independence
- (SG) Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Managing Director Menon: Need to avoid competitive devaluation and protectionist measures - financial press
- (CN) Analysts see China Jan CPI falling to 1.8% from 7-month high 2.5% in Dec as tighter food supply issues that exacerbated prior inflation data normalize - Shanghai Daily
- G20 meeting on Feb 25th not expected to deal with currency wars, Japan unlikely to be singled out regarding its currency - financial press
- (EU) Netherlands, Finland and Germany said to have sought to bring forward measures to impose losses on senior bank bondholders - financial press; Proposals would bring forward the timeframe on the 'bail in' to 2015
- (ES) IMF: Spain is making major progress on reforming the banking sector, Spain bad bank (Sareb) needs a long-term business plan
- (IT) Trani investigators said to probe 5 banks outside Italy related to Euribor - financial press; Banks include Barclays, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, RBS, and Societe Generale
- (US) Goldman Chief Economist Hatzius: Fed will continue asset purchases in 2013, repeat of U.S. debt ceiling crisis looks likely, politics could boost European risk premium
- (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk; non voter): Impact on employment from the QE program is 'questionable'; Believe that 3% GDP growth in 2013 is possible
-(US) US Pres Obama signs law temporarily suspending debt ceiling until May - financial press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Industrial Production M/M: No est v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -6.2% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.5%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 5.5% prior
- 06:30 EU) ESM to sell 2.0B in 3-month bills; Avg Yield % v -0.0324% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.2x prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain 205.5B
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jan PMI Services: No est v 53.5 prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Federal Debt data
- 07:30 (CH) SNB's Fritz Zurbruegg speaks at Conference in Zurich
- 07:45 (ET) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 (UK) PM Cameron with US VP Biden in London
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Duke in GA
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 55.0e v 55.7 prior (revised from 56.1)
- 10:00 (US) Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.3e v 46.5 prior
- 10:30 (UK) BOE Haldane
- 11:00 (UK) Clegg questioned by U.K. Commons Liaison Committee
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $25B in 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel to speak at CDU Event in Bremen
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar in Lisbon
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IMEF Manufacturing Index: 53.2e v 52.8 prior; Non Manufacturing Index: No est v 55.3 prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- (US) Mississippi holds Elections for New Senator

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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