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Tuesday February 5, 2013 - 16:31:36 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Deal Hunters Send Equities Back To Five-Year Highs, Italy and Spain Yields Remain Elevated

Tuesday, February 05, 2013 11:13:24 AM US Market Update: Deal Hunters Send Equities Back To Five-Year Highs, Italy and Spain Yields Remain Elevated

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Dec Industrial Production M/M: 8.5 v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: +1.6 v -5.0% prior
- (CL) Chile Dec Economic Activity Index M/M: 1.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.73.7%e
- (RU) Russia Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 1.0% v 0.8%e, Y/Y: 7.1% v 6.9%e; CPY YTD 1.0%v 0.8%e
- (RU) Russia Jan - CPI Core M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Core CPI YTD: 0.5% v 5.7% prior Dec
- (BR) Brazil Jan PMI Services: 54.5 v 53.5 prior
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Feb 2nd w/w: 2.4%; y/y: 2.6%
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Feb 3rd: 1.5% y/y prior; Jan MTD: -0.6% m/m prior, Jan MTD: 1.8% y/y prior
- (EU) ECB weekly Forex Reserves w/e Feb 2nd: 216.7B v 218.7B prior
- (US) Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 55.2 v 55.0e
- (US) Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.3 v 47.3e

- All three leading US indices are up 1% or so a piece this morning as buyers step in following yesterday's big slide. The
US declines on Monday were the steepest since November, although nearly all of the declines have been made up for in today's session. Spot gold has also retraced its spike from yesterday and is trading around $1,668 today. Note however that yields on Spanish and Italian 10-year government debt are stuck around yesterday's highs, at 5.34% and 4.45%, respectively.

France President Hollande engaged in some verbal intervention this morning, warning that Europe was leaving the euro too vulnerable to volatility and asserting that the EU needs an exchange rate policy. EUR/USD was testing 1.3568 before his comments but drifted to the the lower end of the 1.35 handle after the remarks. Dealers pointed out that verbal intervention needs to come from a German source or the ECB's Draghi to have any real impact.

- The DoJ formally announced its intention to file civil charges against S&P after settlement discussions with the company fell apart. This is the first federal enforcement action against a ratings agency resulting from the 2008 crisis. Reports suggest the DOJ sought a $1B+ settlement and admission of guilt, but S&P declined the deal. Shares of MHP are down 18% since the news broke yesterday afternoon, while MCO is down 12% or so.

- Dell Computer formally outlined its $24B going-private deal this morning, at $13.65/shr. Founder and CEO Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners are taking the firm private, with financing from banks plus a $2B loan from Microsoft.

- Shares of Arch Coal are down more than 6% after the firm's Q4 loss was much bigger than expected and revenue fell short of expectations. Note that executives claimed they are seeing signs a coal market rebound is possible in the second half of 2013.

- Yum Brands' Q4 numbers were solid, but the firm warned its outlook has turned very sour on adverse publicity from contaminated poultry supplies in its
China business. In the current Q1, Yum expects China KFC sales comps -25% y/y. Shares of YUM are down more than 4%.

- Big ag giant ADM's Q2 net profits saw a stunning gain on a y/y basis, as demand for soybeans greatly outweighed the damaging impact of the drought. Shares of ADM are up 5% or so.

- Anadarko reported solid gains in earnings and revenue, both of which solidly beat expectations. Shares of APC are up 2%.

- Estee Lauder blew out profit targets in its Q2 report and tweaked its outlook a bit higher. The firm continues to see solid growth in all categories and said that high-end market demand is robust. Shares of EL rose as much as 8% before tempering gains, while REV is up more than 8%.

- Shares of the
Hartford jumped 2% in the premarket but dropped right back to unchanged in the first few minutes of cash trading after a much better-than-expected set of Q4 numbers.

- Computer Sciences Corp beat expectations and hiked its FY13 forecast, thanks to a big recovery in its margins. Shares of CSC are up more than 9%.

- Regal
Beloit beat top- and bottom-line expectations, sending its shares up 8% or so this morning.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (UK) Clegg questioned by U.K. Commons Liaison Committee
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $25B in 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel to speak at CDU Event in Bremen
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar in Lisbon
- 13:00 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) budget and economic outlook
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IMEF Manufacturing Index: 53.2e v 52.8 prior; Non Manufacturing Index: No est v 55.3 prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories




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