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CURRENCY WARS: Volatile session as EUR rebounds. The JPY weakened earlier. AUDUSD fell after RBA hints at future rate cut
|CURRENCY WARS: Volatile session as EUR rebounds. The JPY weakened earlier. AUDUSD fell after RBA hints at future rate cut|
6 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: AU- Retail Sales. Europe: DE- Industrial Orders. North America: US- Mortgage Stats, Weekly Crude. CA- Ivey PMI
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Retail Sales, DE- Industrial Orders. CA- Ivey PMI
- CURRENCY WARS: Tuesday saw another choppy day for trade in the EUR. After testing recent lows, the EURUSD recovered into range of the 1.3600 line. The JPY was more directionless during the U.S. session but the USDJPY had advanced earlier in the day. As a result the EURJPY cross rebounded. Equity markets in the U.S. and Europe rallied and should set the stage for overnight bounces Wednedsday in the Far East.
- The U.S. ISM Services PMI was a touch lower but was well in the economic expansion area. Earlier, EZ final Services PMI data were revised up modestly while U.S. data advanced strongly into the expansion zone.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia kept policy steady as expected but left the door open to policy ease in coming months. AUDUSD is weaker and the 10-yr is 3.49%, -11bp.
- Markets are starting to look ahead to possible fireworks at the G20 conference of FinMIns and Central Bankers in Moscow on February 15-16 . Many expect currency value manipulation (JPY) to be a major discussion topic.
- On Thursday, the Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce their latest policy decisions. No rate changes are foreseen. .
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3397. the 10-yr bund is 1.66%, +4bp. European bourses are higher. U.S. shares are stronger. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.02%, 0bp.
- Key Far East bourses were mixed. The 10-yr JGB is 0.79%, -2bp. The USDJPY 20-day average is 90.15. EURJPY 20-day average is 120.80.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com has been a forex trader and a FX analyst for a top N.Y. Fed watching service. Previously he was an FX consultant to major institutions. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
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