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Wednesday February 6, 2013 - 11:43:42 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: German 5-year BOBL auction result was solid EU Market Update: German 5-year BOBL auction result was solid
Wed, 06 Feb 2013 5:42 AM EST

- Nikkei225 Index ends session up 3.8% at 11,463; highest level since Sept 2008 as it tracks a weaker yen.
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.2% V +0.3%E (biggest decline in 5 months)
- ECB's Liikanen: ECB has no exchange rate target
- Markets are starting to look ahead to possible fireworks at the G20 conference
- Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce their latest policy decisions on Thursday. No rate changes are seen. .
- German 5-year BOBL auction results seen as storng

***Economic Data***
- (IK) Jan Halifax House Prices M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; 3M/Y: 1.3% v 1.6%e

- (CZ) Czech Dec Industrial Output Y/Y: -12.5% v -11.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -17.3 v -2.7% prior
- (CZ) Czech Dec Trade Balance (CZK): 6.4B v 17.0Be
- (EU) ECB: 105.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 116.0M prior; 178.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 176.2B prior
- (AT) Austria Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: +0.3% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.7% prior
- (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) left its 7-day Lending Rate unchanged at 6.00%
- (UK) Jan New Car Registrations Y/Y: 11.5% v 3.7% prior
- (IC) Iceland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 11.6B v 3.5B prior

Fixed Income
- (RU) Russia sold RUB10B in 2028 OFZ bond; Yield 7.10%
- (EU) ECB allotted $1.0B in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.63% vs. 1.0B prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B vs. SEK3.5B indicated in 4.5% 2015 Bonds; Yield 1.0242% v 1.5172% prior
- (DE) Germany sold 3.269 in 0.5% Feb 2018 BOBL; Avg Yield 0.68% v 0.53% (3-montn high); Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 1.8x prior


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.50% at 6,311
, DAX flat at 7,665, CAC-40 -0.30% at 3,683, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 8,082, FTSE MIB -0.60% at 16,601, SMI +0.60% at 7,451, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,508

- European equity markets are trading mixed. Italy's FTSE MIB has underperformed ahead of the expected update from Banca Monte Paschi about its derivatives related losses. Markets are currently focusing on tomorrow's ECB rate decision and Spanish bond auction. Banks are mixed, with Italian and French banks underperforming. Metals-related firms are mostly higher following quarterly reports from ENRC and ArcelorMittal.

- UK movers [Hargreaves +7.2% (H1 results),Lamprell +7% (contract award),ENRC +4.5% (Q4 production),Homeserve +4% (FY guidance), Daily Mail +3.5% (Q4 sales),Schroders +2.5% (broker commentary), Smurfit Kappa +2.5% (Q4 results),WS Atkins +2% (trading update), RBS +1% (confirmed settlement talks related to Libor); Wolfson Microelectronics -4% (Q4 margins)]
- Germany movers [Metro +3.5% (Haniel completed stake reduction plan), ThyssenKrupp +1.5% (sector strength); GEA Group -4% (FY12 results), Kuka -3.5% (convertible bond offering)]
- France movers [Bourbon +1% (Q4 sales) ; Vinci -2% (FY results, outlook)]
- Italy movers [Autogril +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Vontobel +2% (FY12 results), Givaudan +1.5% (broker commentary); Syngenta -1.6% (FY12 results)]
- Dutch movers [ArcelorMittal +2.5% (Q4 results)]
- Denmark movers [Vestas Wind +6.5% (Q4 results); H Lundbeck -1% (Q4 results)]

- Fitch Sovereign Director Parker reiterated that it would cut US sovereign rating if no credible consolidation program take place this year and warned that any repeat of debt ceiling standoff would trigger sovereign cut
. On European matters he noted that Fitch would review UK sovereign rating after its spring budget and that Spain was pivotal for the Euro Zone and could bring the whole region down. Lastly he expected Ireland to regain market access in 2013
- Japan BoJ member Sato commented that scrapping the 0.1% floor on interest rates was an option but would look at both pros and cons of such a measure. Seeking negative rates might destabilize markets but cutting rates on excess reserves was an option. BOJ can indirectly make the JPY currency less attractive as safe haven currency with monetary policy but was important to indirectly influence JPY currency for price growth. He stressed that the BOJ alone could not achieve inflation target; efforts by various institutions were needed. Wage growth needed to achieve inflation target
- French European Affairs Min Cazeneuve commented that President Hollande had no plans to bring up euro currency issue at upcoming EU leader Summit (**Note Hollande stated on Feb 5th that the euro zone needed an active foreign exchange policy to counter swings in the euro)
- Finland Center Party leader Sipilea (opposition) commented that the country might need elections in 2013 as he believed the six-party ruling coalition might collapse due to its inability to function
- Germany Chancellor Merkle's Cabinet said to back draft law on proprietary trading
- German BDB banking Assoc: Draft law on financial regulation weakens Germany's position and caused by the upcoming German elections in Sept
- EU President Van Rompuy stated that he saw an urgent need for EU Leaders to agree on 7-year budget at upcoming Summit and set the basis for an agreement in his budget proposal from last November
- EU's Barroso: Urges leaders to bridge differences over budget
- EU aide: Upcoming EU Leader Summit agreement on 7-year budget will be difficult and complex; but its is the best chance this year for an agreement
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) First Dep Chairman Ulyukayev commented that inflation to slow down and might hit target of 5-6% in Q2 as it was close to peak levels. It might widen inflation target range. He did not see a risk of currency war but no clear trend yet. Lastly he added that the possibility of US debt default did not look real
- UK business Secretary Cable: Small firms finding it harder to get credit; not predicting a triple-dip recession. FLS scheme is helping mortgage lending, not small companies
- India Central Bank commented that it might consider gold import restrictions in extreme conditions and that fiscal measures to reduce gold imports might be revisited

- The JPY currency continued to hit new trend lows just ahead of the European morning. Dealers noted that the BOJ gov early retirement announced on Tuesday would possibly bring forward an anticipated shift to more aggressive monetary easing
. Later Japan BoJ member Sato noted that scrapping the 0.1% floor on interest rates was an option. The USD/JPY tested above the 94 handle for its highest level since early May 2010 while EUR/JPY traded at 127.70 (it highest level since April 2010). One dealer noted that JPY buyers seemed to appear from everywhere once the 94 level was tested. In terms of historical perspective the USD/JPY level at 95 was the catalyst for coordinated G7 intervention back in 1995 (hence a key FX level). The JPY was approaching that level ahead of a key G20 Summit schedule later this month (Feb 25th). Currently the G20 meeting was not expected to deal with the issue of a potential currency war but was unlikely that Japan would be singled out regarding Govt actions to weaken the yen
- The EUR/USD was softer during the session but contained within recent ranges as markets were turning towards Thursday's ECB rate decision and press conference. Reaction to Fitch's downgraded the sovereign outlook to the Netherland's AAA rating to negative was cited as a factor of some Euro weakness after the government took control of the country's fourth largest lender. Dealer did note that France President Hollande's call for more control of the exchange rate would unlikely to get backing from the ECB.
- The GBP was mixed in the session ahead of Thursday BoE meeting and testimony from incoming BoE Gov Carney.

Political/ In the Papers:
- (CN) China Commerce Min (MOFCOM): 2013 economic situation remains very severe, global demand is not sufficient
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: China radar incident is extremely regrettable; incident is a one-sided provocation - addressing parliament
- (JP) Japan PM Abe to select new BoJ gov after US visit on Feb 21-22 - financial press
-(EU) Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden: Euro strength is not yet of concern; EUR level reflects European economic data - Swiss press interview; Currency war issue is an exaggeration.
-(DE) German Economy Min Roesler: Countries must increase competitiveness and not weaken the Euro
- (EU) ECB said to be unlikely to address FX rate with monetary policy given little impact or risk expected on the economy - financial press
- (EU) EU's Van Rompuy intends to announce a youth employment program for troubled regions on Feb 7th
- (ES) Former Popular party




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