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Wednesday February 6, 2013 - 16:48:02 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Europe Once Again Undermines Confidence US Market Update: Europe Once Again Undermines Confidence
Wed, 06 Feb 2013 11:36 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Dec Factory Orders M/M: 0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.2%e
- (PT) Portugal Dec Industrial Sales M/M: -8.2% v -5.6% prior; Y/Y: -7.2% v -5.8% prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) cuts Base Rate by 25bps to 3.75%
- (CZ) Czech Central Bank leaves Repo Rate unchanged at 0.05%; as expected
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 1st: +3.4% v -8.1% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan Vehicle Production: 279.3K v 259.4K prior; Vehicle Sales: 311.5K v 359.4K prior; Vehicle Exports: 36.2 v 41.2K prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec CNI Capacity Utilization: 80.9% v 81.5%e
- (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Confidence: 100.0 v 99.3e
- (CA) Canada Jan Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Seasonally Adj: 58.9 v 53.9e; PMI unadj: 54.8 v 43.1 prior

- Europe is undermining confidence again this morning. European indices were under pressure from their open, however news that Berlusconi had narrowed his lead with the Bersani coalition out before 0600ET really shoved European indices steeply into the red. US futures followed European indices lower and both the S&P500 and DJIA opened in the red. As of writing the Nasdaq was back in the black, up +0.06%, while the S&P500 and DJIA were unchanged on the day.

- There were also concerns that the peripheral rally won't last and doubts surfacing that the EU budget talks this week could again fail to reach an agreement. EUR/USD bounded on the 1.3500 level this morning after coming within pips of taking out 1.36 earlier. Note that traders say the euro was also impacted by some unwinding of JPY crosses.

- Germany refuted France's call yesterday for a European exchange rate policy. Comments from a German government official toed the standard ECB line that the euro was not overvalued when you look at the long-term trend and called the recent appreciation due more confidence in Europe.

- Disney remains in positive territory this morning on solid results. Good gains were seen in three out of four of its operating units, but the film operation remains a trouble spot. Time Warner is up a solid 3% on similarly solid gains, although the firm also hiked its dividend.

- Shares of Ralph Lauren are up 8% on much better than expected Q3 results, mirroring Estee Lauder's good Q4 results yesterday. Note that shares of EL are down nearly 2% this morning.

- Most of the big US steel names are gaining this morning, in the wake of Metals, USA deal. MUSA agreed to be acquired by Reliance Steel for $20.65/shr, for a total deal valued at $1.2B. RS is up more than 8%, X and AKS are up 4%. Note that there were thin rumors that Dan Loeb was taking a stake in US Steel.

- Both LLL and MMM are up more than 1% on dividend hikes and better buybacks.

- Goodrich Petroleum is up 21% and heading higher after disclosing excellent results from an exploratory shale well.

- Office supply name HNI Corp is down nearly 8% after the firm's Q4 earnings missed expectations and its Q1 outlook was much softer than expected.

- Cult fast food name Chipotle is up 5% despite a slight earnings miss and lower margins. Executives promised that margins would improve in the latter half of 2013. Panera Bread has been highly volatile, bouncing between flat and up 2-3% in the early going.

- Shares of Gamestop are down nearly 10% on another press report that suggests that the forthcoming new Xbox system will prevent game resales.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (US) Fed to by $3.0-3.75B in notes
- 11:45 (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty on govt plans
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate: 7.1%e v 7.3% prior; Employment Change Q/Q: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Jan Employment Change M/M: +6.0Ke v -5.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.5%e v 5.4% prior


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