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CURRENCY WARS: Early rally in global equity markets runs out of steam. EURUSD to S&P correlation improving AUDUSD weakens
|CURRENCY WARS: Early rally in global equity markets runs out of steam. EURUSD to S&P correlation improving AUDUSD weakens|
7 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR-. Far East: AU- Employment. JP- Leading Indicators Europe: GB- Trade, Manufacturing/Industrial output, BOE. DE- Industrial Output. EZ- ECB. North America: US- Productivity, Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas.North America: US- Mortgage Stats, Weekly Crude.
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Jobs, GB- Trade. Mfg/Ind Output, BOE. DE- Ind Output, EZ- ECB. US- Productivity, Weekly Jobs
- CURRENCY WARS: An early rally in share markets which started Tuesday in the U.S. fizzled out before U.S. markets had opened. As this developed, the correlation trades between the S&P, EURUSD and oil, on an intra-day basis seemed to be clicking back in. We will see if the markets fall back int this pattern in the next several weeks after a recent hiatus.
- The Nikkei has surged overnight following word yesterday that BOJ Governor Shirakawa will be stepping down early. The expectation is that his early departure will hasten actions to stimulate the economy. Reports over the day suggested that the appointment of the new Bank of japan Governor has become highly politicized.
- Thursday will see key January employment data from Australia. Weaker than expected retail sales data Wednesday weighed on the AUD, as it is seen increasing pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates in the near future. The AUDUSD is weaker.
- The Bank of England and European Central Bank announce their latest policy decisions Thursday. No rate changes are foreseen. There has been chatter about a possible comment Thursday by ECB President Draghi about the strength about the EUR, but we have heard nothing so far. .
- Markets are looking ahead to possible fireworks at the G20 conference of FinMIns and Central Bankers in Moscow on February 15-16 . Many expect currency value manipulation (JPY) to be a major discussion topic.
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3420. the 10-yr bund is 1.63%, -3bp. European bourses are mixed. U.S. shares are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr is 1.97%, -5bp.
- Key Far East bourses were higher. The 10-yr JGB is 0.78%, -1bp. The USDJPY 20-day average is 90.44. EURJPY 20-day average is 121.40.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com has been a forex trader and a FX analyst for a top N.Y. Fed watching service. Previously he was an FX consultant to major institutions. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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