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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Spain sells more than expected despite political concerns in bond auction although at a higher cost; UK production data beats expectations; Incoming BOE Gov Carney p

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Spain sells more than expected despite political concerns in bond auction although at a higher cost; UK production data beats expectations; Incoming BOE Gov Carney presents a more hawkish tone
Thu, 07 Feb 2013 5:38 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia Jan Employment data comes in better-than-expected

- India GDP suffers a big miss at 5.0% vs. 5.5%e
- -OECD's Gurria: BoE should buy more debt if UK growth is still weak
- Chancellor Osborne calls for looser BOE monetary policy to increase economic growth
- Irish Govt plans to liquidate Anglo Irish as part of Bank solution
- ECB's Draghi not expected to surprise markets to press conference; Dealers FX topic more appropriate at upcoming G20 meeting
- UK Dec Industrial and Manufacturing Production data comes in better than expected
- Spain sells more than expected despite political concerns in bond auction although at a higher cost
- BOE Governor-Designate Carney comments to Parliament turn more hawkish than is Davos views from a few week ago


***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Gross Reserves: $51.2 v $51.0Be; Net Reserves: $48.1 v $48.0Be
- (CH) Swiss Jan SECO Consumer Confidence: -6 v -12e
- (FI) Finland Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: -735M v +180M prior
- (FR) France Dec Trade Balance: -5.4B v -4.2Be
- (TW) Taiwan Jan Total Trade Balance: $0.5B v $3.5Be

- (HU) Hungary Dec Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -2.5% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -3.4% v -4.0%e
- (DK) Denmark Dec Industrial Production M/M: -3.8% v 0.0%e; Industrial Orders M/M: -14.4% v +5.9% prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 427.0B v 428.3Be
- (ES) Spain Dec Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -6.9% v -6.9%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -8.5% v -7.0% prior
- (EU) ECB: 2M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 105M prior; 162.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 178.0B prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Average House Prices (SEK): 2.160 v 2.091M prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Budget Balance (SEK): -96.3B v -79.3B prior
- (SG) Singapore Jan Foreign Reserves: $258.9B v $259.3B prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan International Reserves: $45.8B v $44.9B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Jan Foreign Currency Reserves: $321.0B v $317.3B prior
- (DE) Germany Q4 Wages Y/Y: +3.2% v 3.0% prior
- (UK) Dec Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -2.0%e
- (UK) Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -2.4%e
- (UK) Dec Visible Trade Balance: -8.9B v -8.9Be; Total Trade Balance: -3.2B v -3.2Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -4.2B v -4.2Be

- (ZA) South Africa Jan SACCI Business Confidence: 94.0 v 93.0 prior
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO): Jan Food Price Index: 210.0 v 209.0 prior

Fixed Income
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency
(Tesoro) sold total 4.61B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2015, 2018 and 2029 Bonds
- Sold 1.948B in March 2.75% 2015 Bono bond; Avg Yield 2.823% v 2.476% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.21x v 2.07x prior; Maximum Yield 2.889% v 2.58% prior; Tail 6.6bps v 11.1bps prior
- Sold 2.07B in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 4.123% v 3.770% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.24x v 2.32x prior; Maximum Yield 4.169% v 3.808% prior; Tail 4.6bps v 3.8bps prior
- Sold 593M in 6% Jan 2029 bonds; Avg Yield: 5.787% v 4.86% prior, bid-to-cover 2.02x v 2.22x prior; Maximum Yield 5.822%; Tail 3.5bps
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.98B vs. 7.0-8.0B indicated range in Oats
- Sold 1.77B in 2.5% 2020 Oats; Avg Yield 1.83% v 2.91% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.64x v 3.99x prior
- Sold 3.02B in 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT; Avg Yield 2.30% v 2.07% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.09x v 1.72x prior
- Sold 3.19B in 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT ; Avg Yield 2.85% v 2.56% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.79x v 3.53x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF50B in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,299,
DAX +0.25% at 7,600, CAC-40 +0.40% at 3,655, IBEX-35 +0.90% at 8,130, FTSE MIB +0.70% at 16,725, SMI -0.40% at 7,407, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,509

- European equity markets are mostly higher, as traders digest the plethora of earnings results released during the session and bond auction results out of Spain. Markets are also focusing on upcoming interest rate decisions from the BoE and ECB. In terms of sectors, banks are mixed. French, Italian and Spanish banks have outperformed while German and UK financials have underperformed. Resource-related companies are mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices.

- Germany movers [Lanxess +4% (takeover speculation),HeidelbergCement +4% (Q4 results),Daimler +2.8% (Q4 results, reaffirmed dividend),Air Berlin +2.5% (Jan traffic data),Hochtief +1.7% (ACS mulling sale of solutions unit);Wacker Chemie -1.4% (Q4 results)]
- UK movers [Punch Taverns +25% (reviewing capital structure),Thomas Cook +10.5% (Q1 results), SuperGroup +8% (Q3 sales) Ocado +6.5% (FY results), Bellway +4% (trading update), Vodafone +2% (Q3 sales), Smith & Nephew +0.60% (Q4 results);Burberry -4% (planned CFO change), ICAP -1.4% (Q3 update)]
- France movers [Alcatel-Lucent +6.5% (Q4 results, CEO change),Scor +4% (Jan premiums data),Dassault Systems +1% (Q4 sales); Sanofi -2.3% (Q4 results)]
- Italy movers [Saipem +5.5% (expected to issue statement on FY13 guidance), Banca Monte Paschi +4% (derivatives update), Telecom Italia +1.6% (ahead of prelim results)]
- Switzerland movers [Credit Suisse +2% (Q4 results, cost cuts)]

Speakers:
- BOE Governor-Designate Carney commented to lawmakers that BoE must exit unconventional policy
and improve monetary and macro prudential coordination. Needed to maintain GBP currency integrity. Absence of currency target did not mean BoE should be indifferent to FX price movements and the BoE could intervene on currencies as needed. Up to G20 to ensure that all important FX adjustments were appropriate
- Luxembourg PM Juncker commented that he saw an agreement on the EU's 2014-2020 budgets today as countries posiions have neared. He noted that EU President Van Rompuy would need to reduce the budget again but there are lower limits
- Chancellor Osborne called for looser monetary policy to increase economic growth noting that decisive moves by govt on deficit meant that BOE monetary action should continue to support the economy
- France Fin Min Moscovici: There must be reform of global monetary system; Must not put pressure on the ECB but added that the Euro at current levels could cost France GDP 0.3%
- France Trade Min Bricq: Hopes for an European foreign exchange policy; If Euro rises through 2013 if would have a clear export impact (**Note: in line with French President Hollande comment
- Norway Fin Min Johnsen: Reiterates that the European situation remains serious and has edged closer to the Nordic region
- PM Monti might be appointed to Senate Speaker after Italian elections (country's second higest political post). This would make him potentially making him to succeed President Napolitano when his term expired later in 2013
- Japan Vice Fin Min Nakao stated that deflation meant that Japan was suffering from high real interest rates and the govt central goal was to get out of deflation
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao had no comment on interest rates (following weaker GDP data) but did noted it would take into account advanced GDP numbers when making policy decisions. He also added that he was taking note of Govt fiscal consolidation efforts
- India Fin Min Chidabaram: Will continue to take measures to revive economic growth
- Iran Supreme Leader said to reject US offer of talks

Currencies:
- Dealers expected FX price action to be Range bound ahead of the key rate decisions from the BOE and ECB but European currencies drifted higher. Optimism over an EU budget agreement helped to put an initial bid in the Euro and was further aided by a decent Spanish bond auction. Spain managed to sell more than expected despite political concerns in bond auction although at a higher cost. Spain debt auction was seen as an important test of sentiment against the backdrop of financial scandal surround PM Rajoy. EUR/USD tested 1.3570 ahead of the NY morning.
- EUR/JPY received a lift after Taiwan's Trade Balance showed a healthy improvement in its exports to China. The pair stalled after Taiwan noted that its exports rose largely because factories were closed for about a week due to the Lunar New Year holiday in this same period last year.
- On the topic of currencies dealers felt that the topic would not be addressed by Draghi at today's press conference and issue would be more appropriate at upcoming G20 meeting. In the past the ECB has noted iot did not have an Euro FX target.
- UK markets became volatile as BOE Governor-Designate Carney began his comments to Parliament. The incoming Gov tone was more hawkish compared to Davos views from a few week ago. The GBP/USD surged 100pips after he noted that BoE must exit unconventional policy. UK Gilt yield moved higher by 5bps to test 2.14%. The price action did moderate a bit as he clarified his views

Political/ In the Papers:
- (EU) Finland PM Katainen: Not supportive of the France President Hollande's call for an FX rate policy; reform is necessary to increase competitiveness
- (EU) ECB's Coeure (France): Bank regulation can improve quality of monetary policy - Op-Ed German press
- (DE) Germany Deputy Fin Min Kampeter: We may use its healthcare fund surplus for up to 4.0B to help balance the 2014 budget - Rheinische Post; State bank KfW could contribute to the effort to consolidate the budget.
- (GR) Greece Fin MIn: 2013 to be a difficult year; Economic recovery can start at end of 2013 as investors and savers regain confidence; Not easy to change bank recap terms
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: the high level of the euro is concerning - TV interview
- (IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan: There is still no ECB deal on Anglo Irish promissory Notes - financial press; There will not be a fire sale of Anglo Irish assets; There will not be a fire sale of Anglo Irish assets.
- (IE) Ireland Lower House approves Bill to liquidate former Anglo Irish Bank - financial press
- (IT) Bank of Italy lent almost 2B to Monte dei Paschi in 2011 - financial press
-Monte Paschi [BMPS.IT]: Reports final derivatives loss 730.3M v prelim estimate 720M - update
- (UK) London Telegraph's previews today's parliamentary testimony from incoming BoE Gov Carney; Suggests Gilts could sell off and the pound could rally if Carney raises concerns about inflation; Says Carney could be more neutral than the market currently expects, and suggest that policy will be data dependent.
- (UK) OECD: Inflation risks are low in the UK, BOE should purchase more bonds and fiscal policy flexibility should be increased; Forecasts 2013 GDP at 0.9%

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Leaders hold Summit in Brussels
- (RU) Russia Jan Official Reserve Assets: No est v $537.6B prior
- (IS) Israel Jan Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $75.9B prior
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Feb 1st: No est v $530.7B prior
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.5%e v -2.9% prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.8%e v +2.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 3.4% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Jan IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 6.1%e v 5.8% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Jan Trade Balance: -$120Me v $1.5B prior; Total Exports: No est v $7.7B prior; Total Imports: No est v $6.2B prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Jan Copper Exports: No est v $4.7B prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Main Refi Rate unchanged at 0.75%; Expected to also leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jan Total Official Reserves: No est v $108.9B prior
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: -1.0%e v +2.9% prior; Unit Labor Costs: +2.5%e v -1.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 360Ke v 368K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.197Me v 3.197M prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Building Permits M/M: +5.0%e v -17.9% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.2% prior
- 08:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi post rate decision press conference
- 08:30 (US) Net Export Sales data
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.2%e v 3.6% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 09:30 (US90) Fed's Stein Speaks on Household Balance Sheets in St. Louis
- 09:30 (US) Weekly Commercial Paper stats
- 10:00 (UK) Jan NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v -0.3% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Vehicle Production: No est v 180.6K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 110.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 154.7K prior
- 10:30 (US) IMF ECB symposium
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 14:00 (UK) BOE Jenkins
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Total Current Account: No est v -222.4B prior; Adjusted Current Account: No est v +225.9B prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Trade Balance: No est v -847.5B prior

 

 

 

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