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Thursday February 7, 2013 - 16:50:24 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Slide In EUR/USD Weighs on Risk Assets US Market Update: Slide In EUR/USD Weighs on Risk Assets
Thu, 07 Feb 2013 11:33 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IS) Israel Jan Foreign Currency Balance: $78.4M v $75.9B prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Feb 1st: $533.5B v $530.7B prior
- (RU) Russia Jan Official Reserve Assets: $532.2B v $533.6Be
- (DE) Germany Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -0.5%e
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: -2.2% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.6%e
- (BR) Brazil Jan IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.1%e
- (CL) Chile Jan Trade Balance: +$244.0M v -$120Me; Total Exports: $6.9B v $7.7B prior; Total Imports: $6.7B v $6.2B prior
- (CL) Chile Jan Copper Exports: $3.8B v $4.7B prior
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) lefts both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively (as expected)
- (EU) ECB left Main Refi Rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected
- (PL) Poland Jan Total Official Reserves: $108.0B v $108.9B prior
- (US) Q4 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: -2.0% v -1.4%e; Unit Labor Costs: 4.5%% v 3.0%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 366K v 360Ke; Continuing Claims: 3.224M v 3.197Me
- (CA) Canada Dec Building Permits M/M: -11.2% v +5.0%e
- (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.2%e
- (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2%e (15-month low); CPI Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e
- (UK) Jan NIESR GDP Estimate: 0.0% v -0.3% prior
- (HU) Hungary Jan YTD) Budget Balance (HUF): -2.5B v -607.5B prior
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -118 Bcf v -130 to -135 bcf expected range

- In the premarket it was shaping up to be a flattish trading day, with European markets making modest gains and the US futures more or less unchanged. Weekly initial jobless claims fell slightly, with the four-week MA dropping to its lowest level since March 2008. Trouble started in the EUR/USD cross, which dropped like a rock from the beginning of the ECB conference call through 1100ET - European indices followed the EUR/USD lower, and in the first hour of trade the DJIA, S&P500 and the Nasdaq were all off more than 1%

- The ECB held rate steady as expected. ECB President Draghi began his press conference by reiterating nearly all of his statements from January and stating that the bank would maintain a full allotment of MROs. FX traders fixed on Draghi's remark that markets will have to wait and see whether euro appreciation can be sustained. In addition, he implicitly refuted France President Holland's call for EU to adopt an exchange rate policy, strenuously laying out the reasons that the ECB has no FX target by highlighting that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. EUR/USD fell from around 1.3570 before the press conference to about 1.3370 at its morning lows.

- The BOE issued a rare statement following its rate decision that warned inflation would likely to exceed 2% for the next two years. The statement also said the MPC was ready to provide further stimulus if warranted, including by reinvesting 6.6B in Gilt cash from QE.

- January retail comps were generally better than expected, although it's worth pointing out that the numbers were also heavily skewed by calendar issues and holiday returns. Target, Limited, Costco and Kohls saw big beats, although seasonal adjusts suggest the numbers are less good than they look and shares are in the red across the board. Shares of ANN are down nearly 8% after the firm trimmed its forecasts across the board. Many names are down sharply on analyst skepticism despite seemingly better numbers.

- DeVry is up more than 20% as traders buy the name on the big earnings beat, despite the sixth straight quarter of revenue declines and falling enrollment levels.

- Sprint's Q4 headline numbers were a bit above expectations, however the firm saw a big y/y decline in its net additions and higher post-paid churn. Shares of Sprint are down 1.3%.

- Shares of Visa are down 2% despite solid Q1 results and a guidance reaffirmation. Multiple bearish analyst notes are pressuring the stock, cutting PTs and warning that Visa faces slower growth.

***Looking Ahead***
- (EU) EU Leaders hold Summit in Brussels
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 14:00 (UK) BOE Jenkins
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Total Current Account: No est v -222.4B prior; Adjusted Current Account: No est v +225.9B prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Trade Balance: No est v -847.5B prior



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