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CURRENCY WARS: ECB's Draghi undermines the EUR broadly. Future BOE Governor Carney supports the GBP
|CURRENCY WARS: ECB's Draghi undermines the EUR broadly. Future BOE Governor Carney supports the GBP|
8 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR-. Far East: JP- Trade, CN- CPI, Trade. Europe: CH- Unemployment, Retail Sales. DE- Trade. North America: CA- Employment. US- Trade, Wholesale Inventories, COT Report.
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Trade, CN- CPI, Trade, CH- Retail Sales. DE- Trade, CA- Employment. US- Trade, COT
- CURRENCY WARS: As we guessed early on Thursday, the focus of trade was on the central banks today. ECB President Draghi undermined confidence in the EURUSD when an oblique comment was taken by some as an indication that the central bank is not in favor of pushing the EUR higher.
- In the U.K., prospective (July) BOE Governor Carney testified in London before a Parliamentary Committee and took a more hawkish posture than many expected. The EURGBP tumbled today on these developments.
- The EURUSD also fell due to the aforementioned Draghi comments. The EURJPY was down sharply as well.
- Key January employment data from Australia were mixed with the headline data strong, but the underlying figures were mixed. There was nothing to lessen. increasing pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates in the near future. The AUDUSD is ending in the U.S. weak.
- Markets are looking ahead to possible fireworks at the G20 conference of FinMIns and Central Bankers in Moscow on February 15-16 . Many expect Japanese forex manipulation to be a major topic for discussion.
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3427. the 10-yr bund is 1.60%, -3bp. European bourses are mixed. U.S. shares are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 1.94%, -3bp.
- Key Far East bourses fell. The 10-yr JGB is 0.77%, -1bp. The USDJPY 20-day average is 90.69. EURJPY 20-day average is 121.80.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com has been a forex trader and a FX analyst for a top N.Y. Fed watching service. Previously he was an FX consultant to major institutions. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
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