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Friday February 8, 2013 - 11:29:23 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: JPY firms as Japanese officials comments on pace of recent weakness EU Market Update: JPY firms as Japanese officials comments on pace of recent weakness
Fri, 08 Feb 2013 5:33 AM EST

- Nikkei225 ends longest weekly winning since 1959 with first loss in 13 weeks

- Japan 2012 Trade Deficit is largest since 1985; Current Account registers its first back-to-back monthly deficit since 1985
- RBA minutes cuts growth outlook
- China Trade Data better than expected but comparisons distorted from year-ago Lunar New Year holiday
- China CPI in line at 2.0%, in line with expectations
- Japanese officials play headline roulette on pace of recent yen weakness
- EU Leaders continue to try to hammer out a 7-year budget deal
- North Eastern part of US braces for massive winter storm.

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply Narrow w/e Feb 4th (RUB): 7.33T v 7.43T prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.4%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.1% v 3.1%e
- (DE) Germany Dec Current Account: 17.3B v 17.5Be; Trade Balance: 12.0B v 15.0Be; Imports M/M: -1.3% v +1.6; Exports M/M: 0.3% v 1.4%e

- (FI) Finland Dec Industrial Production M/M: 1.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -3.5%e
- (SE) Sweden Jan PES Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.9%e
- (FR) Bank of France Jan Business Sentiment: 95 v 93e
- (FR) France Dec Central Govt. Balance: -87.2B v -103.4B prior
- (HU) Hungary Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: 192.3M v 350.0Me
- (DK) Denmark Dec Current Account (DKK): 5.1B v 9.5Be; Trade Balance Ex-Shipping: 3.5B v 7.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Jan Share of Unemployed between ages15-64: 8.0% v 7.9%e
- (TR) Turkey Dec Industrial Production WDA M/M: -1.5% v +1.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v 3.0% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: -3.8% v -0.4%e
- (CN) China Jan New Yuan Loans (CNY): 1.07T v 1.0Te
- (CN) China Jan M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 15.9% v 14.0%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 15.3% v 11.5%e; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.47.2%e

- (CH) Swiss Dec Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.1% v 3.0% prior
- (EU) ECB: 16M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 2M prior; 152.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 162.1B prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Industrial Production M/M: 1.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.2 v -3.8%e
- (SE) Sweden Dec Industrial Orders M/M: +7.7 v -4.8% prior; Y/Y: -2.8% v -3.2% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Industrial Production M/M: 2.9% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.1 v 0.1% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -4.2 v -0.5% prior
- (IT) Italy Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -9.3% v -7.3%e; Industrial Production wda Y/Y: -6.6% v -6.9%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Industrial Production M/M: +1.1 v -3.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v -3.5% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.4% prior
- (GR) Greece Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.5 v -3.2% prior
- (GR) Greece Jan Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 0.2 v 0.8% prior

Fixed Income
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 2017, 2022 and 2030 bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050, Bonds


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.40% at 6,251,
DAX +0.10% at 7,599, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,617, IBEX-35 +0.30% at 8,036, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 16,464, SMI +0.40% at 7,366, SP 500 Futures flat at 1,505

- European equity markets are mostly higher amid the declines being seen in peripheral bond yields, as traders assess Jan data points out of China (CPI, trade balance, bank lending), declines on the Nikkei and yesterday's commentary out of ECB head Draghi. Mixed trading has been seen in the banking sector, as German financials have lagged. Big movers on today's session include Peugeot [UG.FR, capital raise speculation], Renewable Energy [REC.NO, earnings] and Telecom Italia [TIT.IT, earnings)

- UK movers [Aquarius Platinum +2% (H1 results),Experian +2% (broker commentary),Debenhams+1.8% (broker commentary),Land Securities +1.5% (broker commentary); Lonmin -1.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Germany movers [Software AG +3% (share buyback),GEA Group +1.5% (broker commentary);HeidelbergCement -0.50% (broker commentary), Man SE flat (Q4 results)]
- France movers [Peugeot has moved between gains and losses (capital raise speculation)]
- Spain movers [Enagas -0.50% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia -4.5% (FY12 results)]
- Switzerland movers [EMS-Chemie +1.5% (FY results)]
- Norway movers [Renewable Energy -10% (Q4 results)]

- Spain Attorney General Torres-Dulce to open full investigation into alleged extra payments and illegal contributions inside the ruling Popular Party (PP).
Investigation comes after two day preliminary investigation by anti-corruption officials into the so called 'Bracenas secret papers'. The Attorney General felt there was been enough evidence uncovered by the anti-corruption prosecutors to open a 'thorough and exhaustive' investigation into the matter
- Greece revised its 2013-16 medium term fiscal plan which forecasted 2013 budget deficit of 4.3% of GDP from 5.5% prior. Targeted 2013 Primary Budget Surplus of 0.3% vs. 0.0% prior and forecasted 2016 Primary Budget Surplus at 3.2% vs. 4.5% target. Greece noted that it would bridge the gap
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan commented that could never say never when asked about a possible second sovereign bailout
- Poland Labor Min:
Jan Unemployment Rate seen at 14.2% vs. 13.4% prior month
- Sweden Fin Min Borg: Sweden economy to be very sluggish in 2013, 2014
- EU's Barnier: EU will propose draft rules on bank rates in Q2
- ECB welcome intent to legislate on reference rates; 'strongly encourages' banks to remain in or join Euribor panel. It welcomed EU Commission's intention to compel mandatory submissions for systemically important reference rates. It noted that reference rate such as Euribor were of particular importance to the implementation of monetary policy in the euro area and essential to have the appropriate level of bank participation in the respective panels
- Philippines Central Bank Assistant Gov Amador: Inflation outlook manageable with growth momentum continuing to be robust. Monetary policy continued to remain appropriate with inflation outlook subdued
- India chief Fin Min Economic Advisor Rajan commented that the country had to manage its large current account deficit and needed to stabilize and accelerate economic growth. GDP growth of 5.0% was way below the country's potential. Govt had every intent to stick with deficit targets
- BoJ Gov Shirakawa commented that recent fx moves expected to support the economy and country should return to moderate growth toward middle 2013. He noted that prices were expected to rise by 1% in FY14 (**Note BOJ inflation target is 2%)
- Japan Fin Min Aso commented that JPY weakened more than intended in move from 78 to 90 in pair and he did not anticipate such a rapid move
- Japan MOF official: Clarified Fin Min Aso's statement noting that he meant to say Yen's fall was 'fast-paced' and not 'unexpected'

- The JPY currency was firmer during the initial part of the European session and seemed to be aided by position squaring ahead of some Far East holiday nest week with several Asian centers out for most of the week for the Chinese New Year.
Dealers noted that earlier in the week the USD/JPY at 94 found Japanese exports buying yen. Reports noted that Japan Fin Min Aso stated that the JPY weakened more than intended in move from 78 to 90 in pair but was later translated as the sudden move from 78 to 90 was not anticipate such a rapid move.
- The EUR/USD moved off its worst levels for the session to regain a foothold above the 1.34 handle but dealers noted that fallout from Draghi Thursday's press conference should cap the pair around 1.3450 area

Political/ In the Papers:
- (DE) German Bundesbank's Dombret: Situation is still vulnerable in crisis countries - financial press
-(DE) German CDU Dep Chief Meisters: Fx issues should be discussed at G8, G20 - financial press; Euro situation has really improved over the last 5-months
- (IE) Ireland Central Bank plans sale of 2B in bonds assuming financial stability is ensured; Selling 500M in bonds at end of 2014; 500M for 2015-2018, and 1B from 2019-2023
- (IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Forecasts 2014 deficit to decline to 4.5%/GDP; 2015 deficit to 2.4%/GDP; Debt to GDP forecast at 122.1% in 2013; 116.4% in 2015
-(UK) According to Ernst & Young ITEM Club, manufacturing could add to Q1 GDP, further reducing the likelihood of a "triple-dip" recession - London Telegraph
- (US) (US) Fed's Evans (FOMC voter in 2013, dovish): May be possible to turn off QE before unemployment falls to 7%; Optimistic economy will pick up; personally looking for 2.5% growth in US this year; Sees the unemployment rate falling towards 7% in end-2014, 6.5% in mid-2015

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Leaders hold Summit in Brussels
- 06:00 (CL) Chile Jan CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell OLO Bonds
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announced repayments in 3-year LTRO operation vs. 3.0Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Feb 2nd: No est v $295.7B prior
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Jan Housing Starts: 195.0Ke v 198.0K prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$1.5Be v -C$2.0B prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Trade Balance: -$46.0Be v -$48.7B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Net Change in Employment: +5.0Ke v +39.8K -prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.2%e v 7.1% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +41.2K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -1.4K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.8% prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.00-1.50B in bonds
- 11:30 (UK) BOE member Haldane
- 12:00 (US) WASDE Feb Crop Report




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