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Activity may be reduced by Lunar New Year. Light calendar this week. G20 FinMins and Central Bankers meet Friday and Saturday
|Activity may be reduced by Lunar New Year. Light calendar this week. G20 FinMins and Central Bankers meet Friday and Saturday|
11 February 2013 00 :00 gmt
CALENDAR-. Far East: CN/JP- Holiday Europe: No Major Data. North America: No Major Data
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- Holiday JP- Holiday
- CURRENCY WARS: The "Currency Wars" continue to rage as. Tokyo continues to favor a weakening of the JPY vs. the USD, We hold to our view that the USDJPY ultimate target is 100. A "mistranslated" comment by FinMin Aso that the JPY has "weakened more than intended' was revised to say "faster than expected". The initial report saw the USDJPY rebound . Sometimes it is a "misstatement" to tell the truth! The forex market focuses on the EURUSD pair almost as much as the USDJPY.
- On Thursday ECB President Draghi indirectly threw the EUR into the "Currency Wars" when he noted that the ECB takes into account the value of the currency when making policy. In other words, a stronger currency lessens the need for a rate tightening. The EUR tumbled vs. the USD and on its key crosses after his statement. By making this comment Draghi has moved Forex back into more of a two-way market.
- This week sees an unusual calendar with Lunar New Year observances closing markets all week in China (Starting Saturday. Several other Asian markets will be closed off and on during the period.
- The G20 Finance Minister and Central Bankers meeting on Friday and Saturday in Moscow. We are expecting Japan to get an earful on its weak yen policy. I
- High-Impact releases this week are: U.K. CPI data on Tuesday, followed on Wednesday by U.S. Retail Sales data on Wednesday.
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3428. the 10-yr bund is 1.61%, +1bp. European bourses were up. U.S. shares ended up. The U.S. 10-yr is 1.94%, 0bp.
- Key Far East bourses mixed. The 10-yr JGB is 0.77%, 0bp. The USDJPY 20-day average is 90.87. EURJPY 20-day average is 122.06.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
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