Monday February 11, 2013 - 03:37:42 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 11-Feb-2013 -0335 GMT
Dow Jones (13992.97, +0.35%) was higher on Friday as it continues to trade in the 13850-14050 range. It will be tough to say on which side it breaks out. US Trade Balance stood at $ Bln -38.54 against expected of $ Bln -45.80 which was encouraging.
A-Pac is mostly in the Green with Australia (4993.80, +0.09%), Hang Seng (23215.16, +0.16%) and Taiwan (7906.65, +0.25%).
Shanghai (2432.40) is closed for the whole week on account of the Chinese New Year holidays.
Nikkei (11153.16, -1.80%) is also closed for the day on account of National Foundation Day.
Nifty (5903.50, -0.59%) is at its 5900 support, which if broken can push it lower towards 5750 on the other hand a bounce from current levels will be bullish for a rise towards 6300.
Nymex and Brent both are trading flat. Gold and Silver remains mixed and ranged while Copper is bullish.
Nymex Crude (95.70, -0.02%) is trading flat today and can develop a 95-98 range as mentioned earlier. A break on either side will take it to 103.00 or 93.00 in the coming days, higher levels look more likely.
Brent (118.71, -0.16%) has risen sharply and is now targeting 123.00 in the coming days. Dip if seen is likely to take support near 118-16 levels.
Gold (1668) and Silver (31.46) remains mixed within their 1625-1700 and 31.00-32.30 sideways range. The immediate outlook is not very clear.
Copper (3.76) has risen back from Friday's low near 3.73 and remains bullish for a rise to 3.90-95. Important Support is there at 3.70.
Euro remains lower, but has important Support coming up. Yen could consolidate before weakening further. Siwss is mixed and ranged. The Pound looks strong and the Aussie has the danger to fall if it fails to sustain higher. The Dollar-Index (80.19) holds above 80 and can rise to 80.50 while it remains above 80.
The Euro (1.3372) has important Support in 1.3300-280 region and then in 1.3250-200 region which the limit the downside for the week. A strong break/close above 1.3400 can take it back up to 1.3600-700. Dollar-Yen (92.47) can consolidate between 92 and 94 for some time before a rise to 95.00-30. The chances of seeing 91 on the downside cannot be ruled out. The BOJ Meeting is on Thursday (14-Feb-13). The Euro-Yen Cross (123.66) has Support near 123 which can limit the downside and keep the outlook bullish for a rise to 128.75 and 130-131. A break below 123 if seen can take it down to 121-120.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9180) looks mixed and will need strong break above 0.9200 for further rise to 0.9280-300. Immediate Support is in 0.9140-30 region. The Pound (1.5803) has risen back well from just above 1.5600 last week and looks good for a rise to 1.5900 and even higher levels. Aussie (1.0311) has very crucial Resistance at 1.0350 and there is a danger for a fall to 1.0200-100 while below this Resistance.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2377) remains ranged between 1.2300 and 1.2400 and the bias is bullish for a rise to 1.2500 while above 1.2300. Dollar-Rupee (53.50) has Resistance in 53.70-80 region which needs to hold to prevent further rise to 54.00-20.
Venezuela has devalued its currency on Friday from 4.30 bolivars to 6.30 bolivars.
After the ECB Meeting last week, BOJ is the next central bank meeting this week, on Thursday. The Yen has strengthened from 94.06 to 92.17 on Japan's inadvertent admission that the Yen had weakened too fast over the last couple of months. The current BOJ governor Shirakawa is expected to leave BOJ three weeks earlier than his 5-yr term. Further balance sheet expansion by the BOJ would be needed to weaken the Yen further. But, with the G20 meeting this weekend, Japan could be a little circumspect. If so, the Yen (92.47) could strengthen towards 91 also in the near term.
Yields are largely steady in the USA and Europe. Expect sideways consolidation this week.
4:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN Trade bal
...Expected -17.67 $ Bln
CA Labour Force
...Actual 21.9K ... Previous 39.8 K
US Trade Balance
...Actual -38.54 $ Bln ...Previous -48.61 $ Bln
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