Monday February 11, 2013 - 08:00:22 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 11-Feb-2013 -0754 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 0.9183/86...Likely to rise further
R: 0.9270-300 / 0.9390 /
S: 0.9160-40 / 0.9120 / 0.9070
After trading flat for few sessions., the Dollar-Swiss has risen strongly from its 0.9070 support. It is looking good for a further rise towards 0.9270 (which is its resistance on the weekly charts). But intermediate Resistance at 0.9200 needs to be broken first for that. Now whether we go to 0.9400 or not it is tough to say. On the down side it does look to have good support near 0.9160-40 level where we expect the dips to take support. Looking at Dollar-Index (80.21) it has risen strongly and is likely to rise further towards 80.60 (trend line resistance on the weekly) after it crosses its 80.35 trend line resistance on the daily charts. It has seen a strong rise from its 79.00 supports level and this current up leg looks strong to see a further rise towards 80.60 thus break of its 80.35 is expected. Hence we would expect the current 0.9400-9070 range on the Dollar-Swiss to hold for some more time, now it has to be seen if this rise is going to take the pair above 0.9270 or not.
USD 10K Long at 0.9157, SL 0.9120 (up from 0.9105), TP 0.9265
As soon as the market trades 0.9194 move the TSL to 0.9159.
GBP-USD @ 1.5800/03...Positive
R: 1.5835 / 1.5850-80 / 1.5985-6000
S: 1.5765-50 / 1.5700 / 1.5630
Cable was looking vulnerable for a fall below 1.5630 (support on the Monthly charts), but then a consolidation in the 1.5630-80 region was seen which held its 1.5630 support. A strong rise from 1.5650 levels was seen which has taken it all the way up to 1.5800, the picture has turned bullish and a further rise towards 1.5985 is now looking likely. On the down side it has good support in the 1.5765-50 and 1.5700 which should be successful in giving support to any dip if seen. The momentum seems to be good and a strong rise is likely to continue. The outlook remains bullish for the week.
GBP 10K Long at 1.5729, TSL 1.5730, TP 1.5868 (Down from 1.5878)
As soon at the Market trades 1.5835 bring TSL to 1.5790, as soon as market trades 1.5860 bring TSL to 1.5830
Limit Buy Order
Buy GBP 10K at 1.5720, SL 1.5610, TP Open
AUD-USD @ 1.0298/301...Mixed
R: 1.0345 / 1.0390 / 1.0460 / 1.0500
S: 1.0260-50 / 1.0150
Aussie had a negative week as it slipped from 1.0440 levels breaking below its 1.0395 and then 1.0350 supports to dip lower to wards 1.0250. On the dip to 1.0250 it has found trend line support on the weekly near 1.0250 levels from where it has bounced hack. This current rally is likely to take the pair towards 1.0390-400 levels which is its 200 EMA resistance on the daily charts. We are not sure if this rally will halt at 1.0400 and dip lower again or will extend further up towards 1.0600. we will have to wait and watch. On the other hand if a dip from current levels or from 1.0355 is seen towards 1.0250 there will be a threat of this support breaking for a fall towards 1.0150. We will get the indication on how the pair trades through the week.
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