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Monday February 11, 2013 - 11:12:45 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Euro Area Finance Ministers to meet with Cyprus as a focal point

Monday, February 11, 2013 5:37:27 AM EU Market Update: Euro Area Finance Ministers to meet with Cyprus as a focal point

- Week of meetings and speeches. - EU Finance Ministers meet today in Brussels. US State of the Union on Tuesday and G20 meets in Moscow on Friday. </
>- Chinese markets closed for the week for Lunar New Year holiday
- France industrial data mixed with better headline numbers coupled with back month downward revisions
- Venezuela devalues currency by 32%
- Germany 6-month BuBill yield turns positive for first time since June

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Jan Local Car Sales Jan: 173.4K v 141.1K prior
- (FR) France Dec Industrial Production M/M: +0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.1% v -2.1%e </
>- (FR) France Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.1% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -3.9% v -1.4%e
- (CZ) Czech Jan CPI M/M: 1.3% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.1%e
- (DK) Denmark Jan CPI M/M: % v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 2.1%e
- (DK) Denmark Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.5%e
- (ES) Spain Dec House transactions Y/Y: % v -6.1% prior
- (EU) ECB: 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 16M prior; 157.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 152.3B prior
- (NO) Norway Jan CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.1%e
- (NO) Norway Jan CPI Underlying M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.0%e
- (NO) Norway Jan Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.2% prior

Fixed Income:
- (DE) Germany sold 3.385B in 6-Month BuBills; Avg Yield +0.0203% v -0.0091% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.9 x v 2.1x prior


***Equities*** </
>Indices: FTSE 100 +0.60% at 6,282, DAX +0.20% at 7,664, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,668, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 8,143, FTSE MIB -0.20% at 16,604, SMI +0.30% at 7,420, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,515

- European equity markets are mostly higher, amid the gains being seen in the euro against the Japanese yen, ahead of today's Eurogroup meeting. Spain's IBEX-35 has declined, as the country's banks and bonds are trading lower. Overall, European financials are mixed, ahead of the earnings reports from UK and French banks due later this week. Big movers on today's session include shares of Novo Nordisk (NOVOB.DK,-12%) and Ahold (AH.NL,+4%) and Gategroup (GATE.CH,-8%).

- UK movers [Essar Energy +3.5% (Q3 trading update),Thomas Cook +1.5% (broker commentary), Monitise +1% (H1 results); Smurfit Kappa -1.5% (asset write down in Venezuela)]
- Germany movers [Bilfinger +2% (FY12 results); Kontron -5% (FY12 results)]
- Switzerland movers [GateGroup -8% (FY results)]
- Denmark movers [Novo Nordisk -12% (FDA mandated additional data for TRESIBA/RYZODEG)]
- The Netherlands movers [ Ahold +4% (asset sale)]

Speakers: </
>- Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem commented that the situation in Greece had stabilized but Cyprus and Greece did have a risk of contagion. Responsible and priority to leave Cyprus to pay the bill, If Euro zone was not capable of putting Cyprus situation in perspective what did it say about stability in the region. Lastly he added that Russia to play major role in Cyprus issue of privatization and gas reserves
- German Economic Ministry Monthly Report: Economic prospects were gradually brightening as indicators were showing that an end was in sight for current weakness. GDP likely to have decreased in Q4 2012 (**Note: data due on on Thursday, Fen14th)
- ECB must not be pressed by Euro strength
- G7 said to be discussing statement on currencies ahead of G20 meeting (**Note: Standard view is that fundamentals should dictate fx values and determined by market forces)
- German Bundesbank's Dombret stated that he welcomed studies on Basel III liquidity reforms and stressed that quality and not quantity was important for financial regulation
- Italy former PM Berlusconi pledged to cut spending to finance tax cuts and reduce spending by 2pts a year and to lower tax burden by 1pt
- Head of Italy's Northern League Maroni: Would support an alternate currency alongside the euro in Lombardy. Creating an alternative circuit, not a substitute but an alternative, is useful and can be used in moments of difficulty and economic crisis to give real help to companies
- Poland Central Bank member Chonja-Duch (dove) commented that she could wait until new staff forecasts before deciding on the next interest rate move. She added that CPI to decelerate further towards 2.0% soon
- Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Gov Simor noted that it could help economic growth with low and stable CPI. He cautioned that reducing fx reserves was a large risk and that FX reserves declined by about HUF4B in 2012.Current level of FX reserves were appropriate and could lower fx reserves as debt declined. Base Rate should fall to 3.25% but further cuts should now be more cautious (**Note Base Rate currently stands at 3.75%). She noted that conditions had changed with Euro Area as an economic recovery was coming
- Greece Dep Fin Min Staikouras: Jan Central Govt Budget (Primary balance): +398M vs. +159M target (compares to -490M y/y). Jan net revenues were below target and that Greece had no room to let up on budget targets
- Russia Econ Ministry: Feb inflation to slow to 0.6-0.7% m/m while y/y reading to accelerate to 7.3-7.4% y/y
- EU's Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn: Looking for closer coordination on currencies to avoid potentially damaging disruptions to world trade

- The European session was subdued leading up to the eurogroup meeting later today with holidays in Asia. Finance ministers were expected to discuss the Euro currency, along with the issues surrounding Cyprus and Greece. FX markets will be looking ahead to the G20 meeting later this week to see whether G7 leaders mighty make individual comments on currency before agreeing on whether to issue a joint communique.
- The EUR/USD re-approached the 1.34 handle but still well contained within the Jan trading range. The currency was aided after German officials reiterated that ECB must not be pressed by Euro strength.
- The JPY initially began the session on a firmer noted with some expectations that Japanese rhetoric would be aimed at avoiding criticism at the upcoming G20. However, the JPY currency weakened as the European morning wore on. USD/JPY tested above 93.20 ahead of the NY morning.
- The GBP was softer after weekend press reports circulated that the BoE would cut its growth outlook this week. GBP/USD probed the 1.5700 level before consolidating

Political/ In the Papers:
- Spain PM Rajoy published 10 years of income and tax payments, seeking to quell the political fallout from reports of PP politicians received secret cash payments
- (CY) A memo prepared ahead of euro zone Fin Min summit on Monday calling for financial rescue of Cyprus to include losses on uninsured depositors in Cypriot banks and holders of Cyprus sovereign bonds - FT; Proposal said to look for a more sustainable debt solution for Cyprus, reducing its bailout from 16.7B to only 5.5B by involving more foreign depositors and bond holders; Would reduce Cyprus's outstanding debt to 77% of GDP vs 140% in the current full bailout plan.
- (EU) France President Hollande: ECB Draghi's comments on FX have been effective in weakening the euro; The stronger euro has not impacted French growth
- (IE) Ireland central bank Gov Honohan: Encouraged by moves to allow ESM to directly recapitalize a member nation's banks, but they are slow - financial press
-(UK) BOE to warn inflation may remain above 2% target until early 2015, cut growth forecast in quarterly inflation report - UK Press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia Dec Trade Balance: $18.0Be v $15.4B prior; Exports: $49.8Be v $45.4B prior; Imports: 31.4Be v 30.1% prior
- (IS) Israel Central Bank Minutes of Rate Meeting
- (PE) Peru Dec Trade Balance: No est v $222.6M prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Trade Balance: No est v -650M prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Construction Works Index: No est v 53.6 prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Dec Leading Indicator: No est v 100.2 prior
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell Bills and Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to Sell T-Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Consumer Confidence: No est v 49.8 prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 7.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Final Trade Balance: $961.7B v $961.7M prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.1%e v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.8% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bid in 7-day Refi Tender and 1-month MRO at fixed 0.75%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP bond buying plan
- 11:00 (EU) Euro Area Finance Ministers meet in Brussels
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $52B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Yellon on economy in Washington DC
- 16:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Dep Gov Lane speaks at Harvard



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