Tuesday February 12, 2013 - 03:36:44 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 12-Feb-2013 -0333 GMT
Dow Jones (13971.24, -0.16%) continues to trade in the 13850-14050 tight range. Tough to say which side the market will break. We need to wait and watch.
A-Pac is in the green with Australia (4985, +0.09%), Hang Seng (23215.16, +0.16%) and Taiwan (7906.65, +0.25%).
Shanghai (2432.40) is closed for the whole week on account of the Chinese New Year holidays.
Nikkei (11407, +2.28%) seems to be discounting the rise in Dollar-Yen that happened yesterday. While above 11000 it seems to be targeting 12000 in the coming sessions.
Nifty (5897.85, -0.10%) traded flat yesterday near its 5900 support. It needs to see a strong bounce from this support level or else the threat of it breaking will increase.
Oil has risen well and can move up further, Gold is ranged while Silver needs to hold its immediate support to avoid a fall and Copper needs to break its immediate resistances to rise further.
Nymex Crude (96.86, -0.18%) saw a sharp rise which was a more of a catch up with a run in the Brent. Nymex needs to rise above 98.00 firmly to see a further rise towards 103.00 in the coming days.
Brent (118.22, +0.08%) has dipped which is understandable after a strong rise that it has seen from 110.00 levels. Immediate support is seen near 118.00 levels.
Gold (1643.70, -0.33%) continues to trade in its 1625-1700 range. We will have to wait for a weekly close to get a better picture.
Silver (30.78, -0.40%) has support near current levels (30.75) which if broken then a dip to 29.50-00 can be seen.
Copper (3.72, -0.05%) has Support near 3.70. A strong break above its 3.72-73 resistance region will be very bullish for a further rise towards 3.90-95 in the coming days.
The Euro stays above its important Support but is not gaining momentum to bounce back sharply. Weakenss in other currencies like the Yen (which has weakened further following the comments from the US Treasury official that US supports Japans move to end delfation), Pound, Aussie and Swiss has taken the Dollar-Index (80.38) higher. The Dollar-Index can rise further to 80.70-80 now while it remains above its Support at 80.20.
The Euro (1.3398) sustains above 1.3300 but is not gaining strength to rise past 1.3400 which is very much required to ease the downside pressure and take it further up to 1.3500-600. Dollar-Yen (94.28) remains strong and can now target 95.00-30 as it has broken its important Fibonacci Resistance at 94.13. The Euro-Yen Cross (126.30) has found Support near 123.50 and is bullish for a rise to 128.00-50.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9206) has risen above 0.9200 and can move further up towards 0.9280-300. The Pound (1.5650) has come off sharply and is now just above its crucial 1.5630-10 Support region which if broken can drag it towards 1.5500 and even lower levels. Aussie (1.0257) has failed to bounce back above 1.0300 and looks weak for a fall to 1.0200-100.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2437) has risen above 1.2400 and is keeping our bullish view intact for a rise to 1.2500. Dollar-Rupee (53.85) has risen above its 53.70-80 Resistance region and has good chances now to move further up towards 54.00-20.
Peripheral European yields are rising. The Spanish 10-Yr (5.43%, +6bp) targets 5.55%. The Greek 10-Yr (11.2%) has climbed above 11%. The Italian 10-Yr (4.62%) could be headed up to 4.85%. The German 2-Yr (0.18%) remains above Zero, thankfully. So the market does not seem to be going into a blue funk, and that's good. The Spain-Germany 10-Yr Spread (3.82%) is headed up to 3.95%, but should come back down from there.
The US 10-Yr (1.97%) is not being able to rise past 2.0% in the near term. Tomorrow's Retail Sales might hopefully be good. We are expecting a +0.9% M/m increase. If so, yields could move up again. We look for an eventual rise to 2.25%.
Governor Subba Rao yesterday said inflation still remains high and is a worry. The 10-Yr GOI moved up 2bp to 7.86%. The overall trend remains downwards, though, and we may hope for an eventual decline while the yield remains below 8.0%.
9:30 GMT or 16:00 IST UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 2.70 % ...Previous 2.70 %
4:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN IIP
... Previous -0.1 %
No major data release yesterday.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."