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Tuesday February 12, 2013 - 11:26:26 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: G7 statement on currencies supports Japan action to deflate deflation; European bond market results were mixed in session EU Market Update: G7 statement on currencies supports Japan action to deflate deflation; European bond market results were mixed in session
Tue, 12 Feb 2013 5:51 AM EST

- North Korea conducts its third nuclear test since 2006 and first since Kim Jong Un took power; more tests could come
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) left its key rates unchanged (as expected)
- US Undersecretary for International Affairs Brainard: US supported Japan efforts to reinvigorate growth and end deflation. JPY hit fresh 33-month lows against the greenback; Nikkei end up almost 2%
- G7 issues standard statement on FX re-emphasizing commitment to market determined currency rates; seemed supportive of Japan's move to combat deflation
- GBP hits 6-month lows against the USD, trade below 1.55.75 ahead of Wed quarterly inflation report
- European debt auctions mixed at best
- Spain sold upper end of range at lower bid-to-cover ratios
- Italy 12-month yield at 2-month highs with lower bid-to-cover
- Greece 13-week auction was solid

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank left its Reference Rate unchanged at 5.75%; as expected

- (FR) France Dec Current Account: -3.6B v -3.5Be
- (EU) ECB: 42M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 159.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 157.2B prio
- (CH) Swiss Jan CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left its key rates unchanged (as expected) with Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25%; Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Overnight Auction-Based Repo unchanged at 5.50%
- (CZ) Czech Dec Current Account (CZK): -24.3B v -13.0Be
- (UK) Jan PPI Input M/M: 1.3% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.0%e
- (UK) Jan PPI Output M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (UK) Jan PPI Output Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (UK) Dec ONS House Price Y/Y: 3.3% v 2.0%e
- (UK) Jan CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7%e; CPI Core: 2.3% v 2.4%e
- (UK) Jan RPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2%e; RPI- Ex`Mortgage Interest Payments (RPIX): 3.3% v 3.2%e; Retail Price Index: 245.8 v 245.6e

Fixed Income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.685B 3.0B in 1.25% 2018 DSL bond; Avg Yield 0.884% v 0.861% prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs. ZAR2.1B indicated in 2036, 2041 and 2048 Bonds
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.55B vs. 4.5-5.5B in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold 2.55B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.859% v 0.888% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.88x v 3.85x prior; Max Yield: 0.880% v 0.920% prior; Tail: bps v 3.2bps
- Sold 3.02B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.548% v 1.472% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.97x v 2.21x prior; Max Yield 1.580% v 1.520% prior; Tail: bps v 4.8bps prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 8.5B vs. 8.5B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.094% v 0.864% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.38x v 1.79x prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B vs. 1.0B indicated in 13-week bills; Avg Yield 4.05% v 4.07% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.76x v 1.75x
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF1.239B in 3-Month Bills: Yield: -0.091% v -0.090% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 128.7B vs. 129Be in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.75%
- (EU) ECB allotted 7.7B vs. 10Bein 1-month MRO at fixed 0.75%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF 50B vs. HUF50B indicated 3-Months Bills; Avg Yield 5.28% v 5.30% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.94x v 1.75x prior
- (DE) Germany sold 953M in 0.75% I/L April 2018 Bobl; Avg Yield -0.780% v -0.860% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.9 x v 1.5x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 3.01B vs. 2.8-3.3B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 1.52B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.39% v +0.038% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.5x v 2.42x prior
- Sold 1.49B in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0.1654% v 0.110% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.06x prior
- (UK) BOE allotted 270M vs. 2.5B target in 6-month Extended Collateral Term Repo (ECTR) Lending Program


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6283,
DAX -0.30% at 7,608, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,648, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,087, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 16,454, SMI -0.10% at 7,403, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,511

- Equity markets are currently mixed. Italy's FTSE MIB and Germany's DAX have underperformed, while slight gains have been seen in the UK and Spain. In terms of the banking sector, UK banks are leading the gains, following results out of Barclays. Banks in Germany, Italy and Spain have underperformed. Resource related firms are mostly lower, in line with the declines in commodity prices. Big movers on today's session include Barclays (+4%), Finmeccanica (-8%), L'Oreal (+4%), Rexel (+5%) and TomTom (-7%).

- UK movers [Barclays +3% (FY results, cost cutting measures)]
- Germany movers [ThyssenKrupp -1.5% (Q1 results),Continental -1% (Michelin earnings)]
- France movers [L'Oreal +4.5% (FY12 results, buyback),Rexel +4% (FY12 results); Michelin -3.5% (FY12 results),Danone -1.5% (broker commentary), Faurecia -0.50% (FY13 outlook), Hermes flat (FY12 sales)]
- Italy movers [Finmeccanica -10% (CEO arrested as part of corruption probe), RCS Media -2.5% (capital raise speculation),Ansaldo -2% (Finmeccanica probe), Telecom Italia -0.50% (ratings downgrade)]
- Spain movers [Colonial +4% (debt refinancing talks)]
- The Netherlands movers [TomTom -8% (FY13 sales outlook)]
- Norway movers [Norsk Hydro +1.5% (Q4 results), Yara International +0.20% (Q4 results)]

- G7 issued its standard statement on currencies which stated that currency rates should be determined by the market and be in an orderly manner.
It warned against excess FX volatility in terms of disorderly movements. G7 stated that it would not target exchange rates and would cooperate as appropriate on foreign exchange markets. It noted that monetary policies would remain focused on domestic objectives (**Note support for Japan)
- Japan Fin Min Aso stated after the G7 statement that it too supported market-determined exchange rates and that G7 understood that Japan was taking steps to fight deflation and not targeting its exchange rate
- Japan Vice Fin Min Nakao: No comments on specific FX level; markets should determine currency rates
- ECB's Constancio commented that banking union was essential to strengthen the EU and needed an orderly resolution of cross border banks. European deposit guarantee scheme was not essential in the short-term but could be useful for depositor confidence. He noted that he did not see any current currency war at the moment, but it needed to be avoided. He reiterated that ECB saw downside risks regarding growth with no "major" changes to ECB staff forecasts in March.
- ECB's Liikanen: Banking reforms had not gone far enough and needed to take more steps for excessive risk taking. He later noted that slow economic growth period won't be over anytime soon
- SNB President Jordan commented that rebound in global confidence had been seen in markets and that currency markets showed risk perception has improved. Improvement in China economy was seen boosting world economy. He noted that Swiss Q4 economic growth was slower but still positive
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Too soon to be arguing that Euro is too strong; Currencies would be an issue at the upcoming G20 meeting this week in Moscow
- France Fin Min Moscovici: Need coordinated approach to Euro exchange rate; Opposed erratic movements in exchange rates; not pressuring ECB to intervene in FX markets, will have currency discussion at G20
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos: Euro strength is not hurting Spanish exports but the currency should avoid excessive volatility
- Spain PM Rajoy commented that its focus for Spain was on economic growth at this time as doubts over public financing had been removed. Spain deficit cuts in 2012 were unprecedented and he reiterated that it saw an economic recovery at the end of 2013/early 2014 period
- Italy PM Monti commented that Italy did not need new austerity measures
- France State auditor commented that France's 2012 deficit might be above 4.5% and would unlikely to meet 3.0% deficit target in 2013 due to economic headwinds. It believed that its believed 2013 tax receipt forecast was too favorable'
- German DIHK Survey reaffirmed German 2013 GDP growth of +0.7% and noted that business sentiment was seen stable in winter
- IMF commented on Hungary and expressed concern over its low growth outlook. It noted that the country needed to speed up structural reforms (with or without any IMF loan)
- S&P: Hungary policy mix made its debt reduction difficult and high level of private debt was a constraint on its sovereign rating
- Iran govt official: Iran is converting about 20% of enriched uranium to fuel for Tehran research reactor

- The JPY currency did hit fresh 33-month lows during Asia aided by comments from U.S. Treasury's Brainard which supported Japan's efforts to reinvigorate economic growth and end deflation. The G7 statement had a note that was supportive of Japan's attempt to combat deflation. The USD/JPY stayed above the 94 handle throughout the bulk of the European session.
- The EUR/USD remained contained within tight range after eurogroup noted that it did discuss the Euro currency on Monday but as expected it deferred the issue to the upcoming G20 meeting as the appropriate platform for further discussion. The Euro was aided by cross-related flows against the GBP and AUD pairs.
- The GBP maintained a soft tone ahead of tomorrow's BOE inflation report that would likely cut its GDP growth forecast. The GBP/USD hit a 6-month low below 1.5575 in the session.
- The CHF was a touch softer after SNB chief Jordan reiterated that it was prepared to issure further measures to combat deflation

Political/ In the Papers:
- (JP) Treasury's Brainard: Supportive of Japan's attempts to end deflation and boost growth; FX intervention should only be used in rare circumstances and focused on excess volatility or movements
- (EU) France Fin Min: Should act if see excessive FX volatility; markets should set the rates; EMU will have a common currency policy at the G20 meeting
- (EU) Italy Econ Min: Other countries need to follow market exchange rates; euro is built to be a strong currency; Exchange rate market distortions are a cause for concern.
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann: Data does not indicate Euro is overvalued; Concerned about the politicization of monetary policy
- (IE) S&P revises Ireland outlook to Stable from Negative; affirms BBB+ rating
- (ES) A dozen high ranking Popular Party (PP) officials who are being implicated in the Barcenas scandal in Spain will publish their personal financial documents in the coming days- El Pais
-(US) Fed's Yellen (voter, dovish): Notes the gradual depreciation of the USD has helped reduce our trade deficit; It is appropriate for the Fed to continue to push for maximum employment

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Zero 2014 Bonds
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (EU) EFSF to sell up to 1.0B in 2.25% Sept 2022 bond; Avg Yield % v % prior; Bid-to-cover: x v x prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 07:00 (EU) ECB drains vs. 205.5B target in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases`(SMP)
- 07:00 (FI) Finland PM Katainen
- 07:30 (US) Jan NFIB Small Business Optimism: 89.5e v 88.0e prior
- 07:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Current Account: -885Me v -1.5B prior; Trade Balance: -624Me v -394M prior; Exports: 11.0Be v 13.0B prior; Imports: 11.6Be v 13.4B prior
- 08:45 (CA) Bank of Canada Gov Carney in Ottawa
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) ECB weekly Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (ES) ECB Chief Draghi in Spanish Parliament
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Dec JOLTs Job Openings: No est v 3.676M prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Vehicle Production: No est v 180.6K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 110.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 154.7K prior
- 10:30 (US) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) budget and economic outlook hearing
- 10:30 (UK) DMO to announce size of 1.75% 2022 Gilt for Feb 22nd auction
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $2.75-3.50B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Fed's George
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $45B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 12:30 (DE) German Bundesbank member Dombret
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 3-year notes
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart in Madrid
- 14:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU Ash Wednesday event
- 14:00 (US) Jan Monthly Budget Statement: -$2.0Be v -$260M prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Export Price Index M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -6.2% prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Import Price Index M/M: No est v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -8.8% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 18:00 (US) Fed's Plosser
- 20:00 (US) President Obama gives State of the Union Address




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