Tuesday February 12, 2013 - 20:28:51 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Wednesday 13 February 2013
The G7 confused currency markets. It released a statement during the London morning saying exchange rates should be set by market forces, which was interpreted as a green light to continue selling the yen given Japan’s stated desire to boost inflation. A few hours later an unnamed G7 official said the statement was misinterpreted, causing a sharp fall in USD/JPY. Once the smoke had cleared, the USD was lower and most risky currencies were higher. The S&P500, meanwhile, ground to a fresh five-year high and is currently up 0.2% on the day. Copper is up 0.6%. US 10yr treasury yields rose from 1.95% to 1.98%. A 3yr auction went well albeit with lower offshore participation.
The US dollar index (DXY) fell by around 0.7% following the G7 statement. EUR firmed from 1.3376 to 1.3475. Also boosting EUR were comments from SNB’s Jordan that the CHF remained overvalued, causing EUR/CHF buying. USD/JPY firmed from 94.00 to 94.41 following the G7 statement but plunged to 92.95 after the “clarification”. AUD initially weakened to 1.0227 – a four-month low – but bounced to 1.0322 following the G7 statement. Outperformer NZD similarly bounced from 0.8334 to 0.8438. AUD/NZD fell from 1.2280 to 1.2230.
US small business confidence edged up from 88.0 to 88.9 according to the NFIB’s Jan survey, following Dec’s slight rise. Even so, those combined gains represent just a 25% recovery of Nov’s 5.6 pt drop from 93.1 to 87.5. It seems clear that the election, fiscal cliff and now the approaching March 1 deadline to avoid the spending sequester have been weighing heavily on business sentiment (perhaps more in this sector than for larger businesses such as those surveyed by the ISM). The Jan detail included a 2pt rise to 3 in intention to hire, although that is still the second lowest reading since the middle of 2012.
UK CPI steady at 2.7% yr for the fourth month running in Jan. Accelerating prices for food, alcohol & tobacco, transport and communication were offset by slower apparel, housing and health price gains. Recall that last week the Bank of England unusually pre-empted tomorrow’s inflation report by suggesting inflation would remain above the 2% target for the next two years, largely due to one offs and policy decisions rather than underlying pressures. Hence it was appropriate to “look through the temporary albeit protracted” inflation target overshoot when setting monetary policy. Separately, producer prices accelerated at the input stage from 0.5% yr to 1.8% yr, but output prices slowed from 2.2% yr to 2.0% yr in Jan (core output down 0.1 ppt to 1.4% yr). The RICS reported a net balance of –4% of surveyors reporting higher prices in Jan, down from –1% in Dec but still the second least negative reading since the middle of 2010.
G7 on exchange rates. Three days ahead of the G20 meeting in Moscow, the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors issued a joint statement on currencies. “We reaffirm that our fiscal and monetary policies have been and will remain oriented towards meeting our respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments, and that we will not target exchange rates.” This implicitly condones the new Japanese government’s policies aimed at Japan’s deflationary economic environment, which have prompted a sharp yen depreciation since late last year, and renewed “currency war” mutterings in some corners of the globe.
AUD and NZD Outlooks: The ambiguous G7 statement means the G20 meeting this weekend will be watched even more closely for its stance on currency issues, particularly regarding the yen. Locally today there’s nothing of note in NZ but Australia has the Westpac consumer confidence survey. Tonight there’s the BOE inflation report, and US retail sales.
NZD/USD 1 day: Support is at 0.8380 for a push above 0.8440.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The positive trend since May remains intact as long as 0.8250 holds, targeting 0.8493 and beyond (0.8570 next, 0.8840+ sometime this year).
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening today up 1bp at 2.93%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 month: With the 2.94% medium term target attained, our next major target level is 3.18%, supported by improving NZ data and higher US yields.
AUD/USD 1 day: Yesterday’s corrective bounce could extend to 1.0350 today, nearby support at 1.0260.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle, which could see it reach 1.0150 or even parity before an eventual break higher.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: We expect 1.0225 to give way, the next major downside target 1.2100. The technical picture is consistent with relative data flow and central bank biases
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 13 February 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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