Wednesday February 13, 2013 - 03:36:39 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 13-Feb-2013 -0335 GMT
Dow Jones (14018.70, +0.34%) continues to trade in the tight 13850-14050 range. Failure to dip towards 13850 will mean that it is stronger inside the range. In focus will be the US Retail Sales which we expect to grow at 0.90% MoM.
A-Pac is mostly trading in the green with Australia (5028.10, +0.94%), Hang Seng (23215, +0.16%) and Taiwan (7906, +0.25%). No major cues from the US.
Shanghai (2432.40) is closed for the whole week on account of the Chinese New Year holidays.
Nikkei (11351, -0.16%) seems to be trading more or less in tune with Dollar-Yen. Index has been running up since a long time now and is targeting 12000. But some consolidation with base at 11000 cannot be ruled out.
Nifty (5922.50, +0.42%) has bounced a bit yesterday and should see follow up buying today for it to remain positive else 5900 can be at a risk (not immediately but in the coming sessions).
Oil has risen a bit, Gold can dip if breaks its support while Silver is also near its support which if broken can push it lower and Copper needs to break 3.73-75 for further rise.
Nymex Crude (97.61, +0.10%) has risen well but needs to see a firm break above 98.00 for a further rise towards 103. In case 98 holds then it can trade in the tight 98-95 range.
Brent (118.68, +0.02%) is looking strong above 118.00 for a further rise towards 123.00. But if Nymex holds 98.00 then Brent can also trade in the tight 117.50-119.50 range.
Gold (1653.20, +0.22%) has started looking weak on the weekly charts. In case a break of 1640 is seen then there will be a threat of the 1625-1700 range breaking on the down side and further fall towards 1575 and may be even lower.
Silver (31.20, +0.60%) recovered well from its support near 30.75 but is not completely out of the woods yet. The threat of 30.75 breaking remains and a further fall towards 29.50 is not completely ruled out.
Copper (3.75, +0.12%) has not moved much and strong rise above 3.73-75 is required for it to see further higher levels of 3.90-95.
Euro is strong and the Yen and Aussie has strengthened after a mixed concern from the G7 officials on the current weakness in the Yen. Dollar-Swiss is mixed and the Pound is bouncing well from just below its important Support. The Dollar-Index (80.05) tested 80.50 and has come off sharply from there. Support is there in 79.85-70 region which can be tested now and whether this Support region breaks or holds will decide the further direction of move.
The Euro (1.3451) has broken above 1.3400 strongly and looks good now for a further rise to 1.3500-3600. Dollar-Yen (93.21) is able to sustain above 94 and can come down to 92.50-92.00 on profit taking ahead of the BOJ Meeting tomorrow. The Euro-Yen Cross (125.37) is looking mixed. Failure to see a strong close above 127 keeps the bias bearish for a fall to 124-123.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9174) is not gaining strength to break above 0.9200 and is trading mixed between 0.9150 and 0.9200. The outlook is not clear. The Pound (1.5673) dipped below its crucial Support at 1.5600 yesterday but has risen back very well from the low of 1.5572. It could remain broadly ranged between 1.5600-5900 for some time. Aussie (1.0342) has bounced back sharply from just above 1.0200 and is now trading well above its 200-DMA (currently at 1.0311). A rise to 1.0400-50 is possible while above 1.0300.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2378) has dipped below 1.2400 but has good Support near 1.2350 which can hold and keep the upside open for a rise to 1.2500. Dollar-Rupee (53.85) has come off well from the high of 54.06 yesterday and has good chances for a fall to 53.60-50 now while it remains below 54.
The Spainish 10Yr yield (5.32%) has come down well by 11bps and has pulled down the Spain-German yield differntial (3.69%) by 13bps. Technically both the Spain 10Yr yield and the Spain-German yield differential has a triple top on the charts and can come down to 5.25%-5.20% and 3.60%-3.50% respectively.
The US 10-Yr yield is bouncing back again and has good chances for a rise to 2.20%-2.25%.
10:00 GMT or 16:30 IST EU IND Prodn (MoM)
..Expected 0.20 % ...Previous -0.30 %
10:00 GMT or 16:30 IST EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected -2.30 % ...Previous -3.51 %
12:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Retail Sales
...Expected 0.9 % ...Previous 0.4 %
UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 2.70 % ...Previous 2.70 %
...Actual -0.6 % ... Previous -0.1 %
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