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Wednesday February 13, 2013 - 11:38:14 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE signals it will not tighten policy in response to higher inflation; Swiss govt imposed capital buffet to offset mortgage risk

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE signals it will not tighten policy in response to higher inflation; Swiss govt imposed capital buffet to offset mortgage risk
Wed, 13 Feb 2013 5:52 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia Feb Consumer Confidence at 17-month high
-U.S. President Obama reiterates plan to lower deficit through taxes,
spending cuts
-S&P Says French banks still vulnerable to market swings
- G7 Currency message seen as mixed
- BOE signals it will not tighten policy in response to higher inflation
- Swiss govt imposed capital buffet to offset mortgage risk

- German 2-year Schatz yield was highest since last spring
- Italy auction not as impressive as earlier ones this year but sell upper end of range

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Jan Trade Balance: -$20.0B v -$ prior; Imports Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.3% prior; Exports Y/Y: +0.8% v -1.9% prior

- (DE) Germany Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Dec Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.2% prelim
- (NL) Netherlands Jan CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.7%e
- (NL) Netherlands Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1%e
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.1% v -1.5% prior
- (TR) Turkey Dec Current Account: -$4.7B v -$5.4Be
- (EU) ECB: 27.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 42.0M prior; 156.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 159.2B prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) left Repo Rate unchanged at 1.00%
- (NO) Norway Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4%e; GDP Mainland Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.3%e


Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK10B in 3-month Bills, yield 0.9880%
- (EU) ECB allotted $1.0B in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.65% vs. $1.0B prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold total CHF472M in 2024 and 2037 Bonds
- (PL) Poland sold total PLN4.582B vs. PLN3.0-5.0B indicated range in 2015 and 2024 bonds
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 6.63B vs. 6.75B indicetd in 2015, 2026, 2040 BTP
- Sold 3.449B in 2.75% Dec 2015 BTP; Avg Yield 2.30% v 1.85% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.37x v 1.45x prior
- Sold 863M in 4.50% Mar 2026 BTP; Avg Yield 4.55% v 4.75% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.59x v 1.98x prior
- Sold 888M in 5.00% Sept 2040 BTP; Avg Yield 5.07% v 5.43% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.97x v 1.29x prior
- Sold 1.43B in June 2017 floating rate note
- (DE) Germany sold 4.31B in new 0.25% March 2015 Schatz; Avg Yield +0.21% v +0.01% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.5x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
-Indices: FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,313, DAX +0.10% at 7,665, CAC-40 -0.25% at 3,677, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,245, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 16,622, SMI 0.30% at 7,452, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,517

- European equity markets are mixed as traders focus on the movements in EUR/JPY and earnings reports. The FTSE 100 has underperformed on ex-dividends, while the Swiss SMI index has outperformed, amid gains in shares of ABB, Holcim and Roche. The peripheral indices are mixed despite the declines being seen in Spanish and Italian government bond yields. European banks are mostly lower led by shares of SocGen. Resource-related companies are mostly higher, in line with the gains being seen in copper prices. Big movers on the session include African Barrick Gold [ABG.UK, -8.5%], Bic [BB.FR, -8%], Crest Nicholson [CRST.UK, +12.5%], Heineken [HEIA.NL, +4%], Gamesa [GAM.ES, +6%], Pagesjaunes [PAJ.FR, -10%] SMA Solar [S92.DE, +9%], SocGen [GLE.FR, -3.5%] and Tullow Oil [TLW.UK, +5%].

- Germany movers [SMA Solar +9% (CEO comments on profitability), Wirecard +3.5% (broker commentary); TUI -1.5% (Q1 results)]
- UK movers [Crest Nicholson +13% (IPO debut), Tullow Oil +4.5% (FY results), Telecity +4% (FY results),Reckitt Benckiser +1% (Q4, FY results) ; African Barrick Gold -8% (FY12 results), Phoenix IT -4% (profit warning), Astrazeneca -3% (ex-dividend),BP -1.5% (ex-dividend), Shell -1% (ex-dividend)]
- France movers [Total flat (Q4 results), Peugeot +2.5% (FY12 results), Lafarge +2.5% (broker commentary), Edenred +2% (FY results) ; Pagesjaunes -11% (FY12 results), Bic -7.5% (Q4 results), SocGen -3% (Q4 results), Saint Gobain -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Lottomatica +2% (FY12 results); Finmeccanica -3% (concerns related to corruption probe)]
- Spain movers [Gamesa +6.5% (FY results)]
- Switzerland movers [Holcim +2.3% (broker commentary)]
- Dutch movers [Heineken +3.5% (FY results); ING -1% (Q4 results)]
Belgium movers [Ablynx +13% (Phase II data presentation)]

Speakers:
- (UK) Bank of England releases Quarterly Inflation Report which signaled it would not tighten policy in response to higher inflation.
It concluded that its inflation forecast was higher than in Nov for much of forecast and showed CPI at around 2.3% in 2 years time. Inflation to fall below 2% target in Q1 of 2016 (prior view Q3 2014). GDP seen at 1.9% y/y in 2 years time, around 2.1% in 3 years.
- Swiss govt imposed capital buffet to offset mortgage risk as part of measures to address its overheating property market. SNB requested banks to hold 1% extra capital against mortgage risk-weighted assets. It noted that a strong franc had limited space for rate hike to slow growth in housing prices.
- France Fin Min Moscovici joined a growing chorus of French officials in noting that meeting 2013 targets would be difficult; Growth targets to be reassessed on March 15th in a report to Parliament. He added that he was against adding austerity to austerity
- France Budget Min also noted that it would be very difficult to reach 3% deficit target in 2013. He also noted that it might include the 75% tax in 2014 budget huzac
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) First Dep Chairman Ulyukayev stated that Feb inflation was seen between 0.6-0.7% range and that Jan capital outflows was seen below $8-10B. he express support of the recent G7 statement on currencies. He noted that he saw short-term effect from one-sided currency steps. Russia move to floating rates might happen after this year
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Leaves Repo Rate Path unchanged through 2015. And noted that today's decision to hold rates steady was was not unanimous (again). Dep Gov Ekholm sought 25bps cut in Repo Rate to 0.75% while Dep Gov Svensson sought a 50bps cut in Repo Rate to 0.50% and lower Rate Path. Sweden majority saw some positive signs pointing towards stabilization and strengthening of economic activity. It saw rates remaining at this low level for remainder of year as developments in line with December views
- Cyprus Presidential candidate Anastasiades: Hopes to see EU aid soon, perhaps within weeks (**Note: Cyprus to hold Presidential elections on Sunday, Feb 17th)
- Japan Fin Min official Nakao reiterated that that exchanged rates should be determined by markets and he had no comment on specific FX levels. G7 Statement on currencies was a sign that the group shared its view on FX and policies. Japan needed credible medium-term fiscal plan and would adhere to pledges made to G7. Advanced economies needed to address their problems. Global economic outlook was more sanguine but cannot become complacent
- S&P: French banking sector withstood a difficult 2012 but remained vulnerable to market swings as the sector remained weak on capital. Core earnings to decline 'moderately' in 2013
- Germany Steel Industry Group: 2012 capacity utilization at 84% (lowest level since the mid 1990s); sees 2013 rolled steel production at 39M tons v 38.4M y/y
- IEA: cut its 2013 global oil demand growth forecast by 90K bpd to 840K bpd citing weaker GDP forecasts . It lowered its 2013 global demand estimate by 85K bpd to 90.7M bpd coupled by a reduction in its global oil supply forecast by 300K bps to 90.8M bpd. Opec supply down 100K bpd to 30.34M bpd while non-Opec production dwas own 190K bpd to 54.2M bpd. It noted that spare capacity gains were not as comforting as they appear

Currencies:
- JPY drifted lower during the session after exhibiting some supportive footing during the prior US and Asian session. Volatility in the currency did spike as conflicting G7 statements circulated. Initially G7 appeared to back Japanese policy until one unnamed official claimed that JPY was a concern. A UK G7 official tried to clarify that the statement was not about an individual currency or country
- The Euro was on supportive footing with some risk appetite gained some traction. Peripheral yields moved lower in the session while core yields drifted higher cementing the sentiment. Political uncertainties in Italy and Spain have yet to cast another shadow over the future of the euro zone
- The CHF currency weaker ahead of planned Swiss press conference on the property market in which dealers noted that govt might call for larger capital buffer for banking sector. The cost would get transferred to buyers of mortgages
- The GBP was weaker at 6-month lows while Gilt yields shot higher following the release of the BOE inflation report. The BOE signaled it would not tighten policy in response to higher inflation. The GBP/USD slumped to test below 1.5585 and off over 70 pips from its Far East open.
- The SEK was firmer following the Swedish Central Bank rate decision. Analysts were almost evenly divided on today rate decision but a significant number of analysts (45%) looking for the central bank to again cut the Repo Rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Sweden also left its repo rate path unchanged. The steady hand fueled a drop in EUR/SEK from the 8.5600 region to just fewer than 8.5100, for 5-week lows in the pair

Political/ In the Papers:
-(EU) ECB's Draghi: Came to Madrid in order to recognize Spain's positive efforts, Spain is on the right track; the "currency war" talk is way overdone, supports G7 statement on currency levels - comments from Spanish Parliament
- (FR) France Foreign Min: We are in need of a FX policy, strong Euro is hurting the economic recovery; US exchange rate always moves in the interest on the US economy.
- (UK) Confederation of British Industry (CBI) releases quarterly economic forecasts: Cuts UK 2013 GDP forecast to 1.0% from 1.4% prior in Nov; Forecast 2013 inflation at 2.6%, 2014 at 2.2%; Sees Q1 UK GDP at 0.3%
- (US) US President Obama: To raise min wage to $9/hr from $7.25/hr by 2015 - State of the Union address
- (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Democrats will put forth the plan to avert sequester this week
- (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC non-voter): monetary policy is important to boost growth; faster growth would help jobs market; Housing sector is recovering, there are hopeful signs in the economy
- (JP) Japan Fin Min official Nakao: Will not comment on remarks by unnamed G7 official - financial press; **Note: During the US session on Tuesday, a G7 Official said that the earlier G7 statement has been misinterpreted; the G7 is concerned about JPY currency moves

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IR) The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets with Iran
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank 4Q Inflation Report
- (MX) Mexico Jan ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior
- (PT) Bank of Portugal releases Data on Banks
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Trade Balance (First Estimate: No est v 4.3B prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Retail Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 3.4% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q4 Unemployment Rate: No est v 15.8% prior
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 8th: No est v 3.4% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Minutes
- 08:30 (US) Jan Import Price Index M/M: +0.8%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.0%e v -1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Advance Retail Sales: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Ex Auto & Gas: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior **Note: first reading since consumers were hit with higher payroll taxes)

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 10:00 (US) CBO director Elmendorf
- 10:00 (US) Dec Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:50 (EU) ECB member Praet (Belgium)
- 11:00 (IC) Iceland Jan International Reserves (ISK): No est v 540B prior
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU Ash Wednesday event in Mecklenburg
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:10 (US) Fed's Bullard to speak on Economy at Arkansas State University
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: +0.1%e v -0.9% prior; GDP Annualized: +0.4%e v -3.5% prior
- (JP) BOJ interest rate decision

 

 

 

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