Wednesday February 13, 2013 - 12:26:52 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 13-Feb-2013 -1224 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 0.9175/78...anged, but likely to break on the upside
R: 0.9200-20 / 0.9285
S: 0.9150-20 / 0.9070
Dollar-Swiss continues to trade in the 0.9150-0.9220 range but is looking strong to rise towards 0.9220 in the immediate term. Going forward the bias would be for this tight range to break on the upside so that a further up move towards 0.9280-300. We need to wait and watch though and caution is advised as it has been vulnerable near 0.9200 levels. 0.9200 also has its 200 EMA on the short term charts which has to be crossed firmly to see a further rise. On the down side though the pair is expected to take support near the lower end of the range that is near 0.9150-40 where it is expected to be find buyers. It also has good support near 0.9070 which is its support on the monthly charts.
USD 10K Long at 0.9162, SL 0.9135 (0.9110), TP 0.9269
As Soon as the market trades 0.9200 move the stop to 0.9148, as soon as the market trades 0.9216 move the TSL to 0.9165.
Buy USD 10K at 0.9145, SL 0.9105. TP Open
GBP-USD @ 1.5565/68...Likely to fall further while below 1.5600
R: 1.5600-25 / 1.5680-700 /
S: 1.5550 / 1.5500 / 1.5420
Cable has taken resistance near 1.5680-700 levels from where it has dropped sharply lower breaking below its 1.5650 and 1.5600 supports. We were expecting a bounce which would have taken the pair further up but the pair could not break its 1.5680-700 resistances which was a signal that the pair is weaken than it appears. Also the bigger trend remains bearish. While below 1.5600 it can see further lower levels of 1.5500 and even 1.5400. On the upside 1.5600-25 is expected to be a good resistance now which should be able to cap the pairís upside if seen.
AUD-USD @ 1.0328/31...Short covering can take it further
R: 1.0345 / 1.0390-400 /
S: 1.0310-300 /
Aussie has come off through the day but it does have support near 1.0310-00 levels from which it can bounce again. Looking at the daily charts a further upside looks possible but the weekly is slightly indecisive. We would prefer giving more importance to the daily charts and would be looking for a further rise in the pair towards 1.0385-400 levels while it continues to hold support of 1.0300. Post 1.0385-400 the pair can turn down but we will have to see how it trades there to take a call. The bigger trend can still be considered bearish and are likely in a short covering mode.
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