Thursday July 14, 2005 - 01:22:33 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Swiss Franc vs U.S. Dollar 14th July 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2931 ... 1.2964 ... 1.2986 ... 1.3005
Support....: 1.2875 ... 1.2842 ... 1.2808 ... 1.2782
Cautiously we feel the 1.2931-64 area should cap for further losses to develop
The 1.2699 low did indeed form a good low although the rally has exceeded the 1.2843-55 area and leaves us a little mixed. We do see resistance around 1.2931 and 1.2964 and we should observe any test. Only above would raise the chance of gains extending through to 1.3000-05 at least with a retest of 1.3043-75 then not out of the question.
The pullback higher has been deeper than expected though at this point we are a little reluctant to get bullish. However, we shall ideally need to see the 1.2931-64 area cap and for losses to begin and break below 1.2842-70 which, if seen, would assist the bearish preference for losses to 1.2800-10 at least which could cause a pullback. Below extends losses to 1.2750-55.
Elliott Wave Comments:
14th July 2005
Back to the drawing board with the recovery much deeper than expected. The thing that concerns us here is that the 1.3075 high appears to be a daily Wave (iii) with Wave (ii) being at 1.1476. A 23.6% retracement implies support at 1.2698 from where we saw a recovery yesterday. In the Swissie this ratio does occur from time to time but we feel the pullback just isn't long enough on a time basis and thus we feel a more complex correction is likely.
Is the current pullback merely a Wave x? Or is it part of a triangle sideways pattern that will extend the time line of the retracement a bit longer? Well, we often see a pullback of 76.4% in the Swissie in a triangle and this lies at 1.2986. Thus only above here suggests a move to 1.3075 once again (in a possible flat?) However, as is quite clear, we need see a little more price development to try and judge the structure better.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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