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Thursday February 14, 2013 - 11:18:15 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Negative GDP data across Europe puts into question whether the worst of the EMU crisis was behind at this time EU Market Update: Negative GDP data across Europe puts into question whether the worst of the EMU crisis was behind at this time
Thu, 14 Feb 2013 5:41 AM EST

- South Korea Central Bank (BOK) left interest rates unchanged at 2.75% (as expected) but decision was not unanimous
-BoJ: left its monetary policy unchanged (as expected)with target rate range unchanged between0.0-0.1%, asset purchases maintained at 101T; vote was unanimous on rates; 1 member proposed ZIRP until CPI target hit but outvoted 8-1
-BoJ: raise economic assessment (as expected) noting that the domestic economy was expected flat for time being
- Japan Q4 Prelim GDP missed expectations and registered its third straight contraction (-0.1% q/q vs. +0.1%e
-Ex-BoJ Iwata (and candidate to replace Shirakawa) JPY correction needed in order to reach BoJ 2% price target; USD/JPY at 90-100 would be a return to equilibrium
-France and German 4Q Prelim GDP missed by 0.1% across the board
- Italy Q4 GDP worse than expected for its 6th straight contraction
- Euro Zone Q4 GDP registers worst quarterly contraction since 2009
- Greek Nov Unemployment hits fresh record high at 27.0% (more than double the euro zone's average rate of 11.7%)
- France PM Ayrault: France will miss 2013 deficit goals because of weak growth
- ECB member Constancio (Portugal): Negative rates always possible but no decision has been made

***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q4 Preliminary Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.2%; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.2%e

- (IN) India Jan Monthly Wholesale Prices (WPI): 6.6% v 7.0%e
- (DE) Germany Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2%e; GDP wda Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (FI) Finland Dec GDP Indicator WD: -2.3% v -0.9% prior
- (FR) France Q4 Preliminary Wages Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e
- (HU) Hungary Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 0.8% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Final Industrial Production M/M: -2.5% v -2.5% prelim; Y/Y: -3.4% v -3.4% prelim
- (HU) Hungary Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.9% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.7% v -1.9%e
- (CZ) Czech Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.7%e
- (AT) Austria Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.6% prior
- (RO) Romania Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: +0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (ES) Spain Dec Industrial Orders Y/Y: -4.8% v -4.0% prior
- (EU) ECB: 23M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 27.0M prior; 125.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 156.9B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Trade Balance: 3.5B v 4.3B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.9%e
- (IT) Italy Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.9% v -0.6%e (6th straight contraction); Y/Y: -2.7% v -2.2%e
- (ES) Jan Spain banks net ECB borrowings 299B v 313B prior (5th straight monthly drop)
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Gold Production Y/Y: -21.2% v -32.2% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: -7.5% v -3.2%e
- (UK) Q4 Property repossessions at 7,700 v 8,200 q/q, lowest in 5 years - CML
- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Advanced GDP Q/Q: -0.6% v -0.4%e (worst quarterly reading since 2009); Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.7%e
- (PT) Portugal Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -1.8% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -3.8% v -3.0%e
- (GR) Greece Q4 Advanced GDP Y/Y: -6.0% v -6.7% prior

- (CY) Cyprus Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -1.0% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v -2.0% prior
- (GR) Greece Nov Unemployment Rate: 27.0% v 26.6% prior (fresh record high)

Fixed Income:
- (EU) EFSF to sell 1.0B in 3.375% 2037 bond in near future (subject to market conditions)
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK750M vs. SEK750M indicated in 0.5% I/L 2017 Bonds; Yield 0.060%
- (UK) DMO sold 4.0B in new 1.25% 2018 Gilt; Avg Yield 1.277% v 0.958% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.83 x v 2.11% prior; Tail: 0.2bps v 0.4bps prior (
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF75B vs. HUF50B indicated 12-Months Bills; Avg Yield 5.23% v 5.23% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.44x v 2.21x
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF10B in 2019 floating rate note; Avg Price 95.19 v 94.43 prior


-FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,325
, DAX -1.1% at 7,615, CAC-40 -0.60% at 3,674, IBEX-35 -1.4% at 8,181, FTSE MIB -1% at 16,537, SMI -0.50% at 7,447, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1,512

- European equity markets are broadly lower as weaker than expected GDP data from Italy and France and Germany, offset better than expected corporate earnings from firms including ABB, BNP and Iberdrola. Equity markets have also tracked the weakness in the euro. European banks are mostly lower, with the exception of BNP, which reported better than expected quarterly results. Resource-related firms are mostly lower, in line with the declines in commodity prices.

- UK movers [Avocet Mining -40% (lowered resource estimate) Rolls-Royce -1% (profit taking after earnings)]
- France movers [Renault +5.3% (FY13 outlook for auto unit),EDF +5% (raised FY dividend), BNP +2.5% (Q4 results above ests), Pernod Ricard +2.5% (H1 results above ests), Publicis +1.5% (Q4 organic growth above ests) : Suez Environmental -2% (FY12 profits below ests), Rexel -1% (share offering)]
- Germany movers [Rheinmetall +5% (FY12 profits above ests), Gerresheimer +2.5% (FY12 sales above ests); Prosieben -4.5% (share placement)]
- Switzerland [ABB +4% (Q4 profits above ests), Clariant +2% (FY profits above ests), Zurich Insurance +0.50% (Q4 Net profit above ests) ; Nestle -2% (FY12 organic growth below ests)]
- Spain movers [Iberdrola +1% (FY12 above ests)]
- Italy [Saipem +1% (reaffirmed FY13 outlook)]
- Dutch movers [Randstad +3.5% (Q4 op profits above ests),SBM Offshore +3% (narrowed FY loss)]
- Belgium movers [AB Inbev +5% (additional concessions related to Modelo transaction), KBC Bank +4.5% (Q4 results above ests)]

- German Econ Min Roesler reiterated that weakness is German economy was only temporary

- France Fin Min Moscovici commented that GDP figures were worrisome (**Reminder: France: 4Q prelim GDP missed expectations when it came in at -0.3% q/q vs -0.2%e)
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gov Shirakawa post rate decision press noted that monetary easing was not aimed at manipulating yen but steered towards stabilizing the domestic economy. Monetary policy did affect exchange rates but not targeting the JPY currency. The weak JPY currency (yen) could gradually start to help Japan's exports. He will explain BOJ's recent aggressive easing at upcoming G20 but that the recent G7 statement on FX spoke for itself. He had no comment on US Treasury Sec strong USD comment nor whether BOJ could start buying foreign bonds. He reiterated that there was no difference in view between BOJ and Japanese Govt on how to end deflation and that the Japanese economy would likely to pick up by mid-2013
- Japan Vice Fin Min Yamaguchi commented that its domestic economy was looking up and the BOJ economic assessment was in line with Govt views. He noted that the JPY currency weakness, rise in equities and Govt stimulus would all help support its domestic economy
- ECB Publishes Monthly Report noted that early LTRO repayments might contribute to further reduction of excess liquidity expectations; but currently too low to affect short term money market rates. It added that the pace of further early LTRO repayments "should be limited". Weaker than expected economic activity in 4Q was behind downward 2013 GDP revision while the outlook for price developments was broadly balanced
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters cut 2013 and 2014 GDP outlook and trimmed inflation expectations
- ECB member Constancio (Portugal) reiterated the view that OMT bond buying scheme was available as a backstop. He also noted that it was seeing a return of capital into stressed countries during Q4; bank deposits have started to increase. He reiterates ECB view that it did not target exchange rates but did concede that ECB noted policies do affect FX levels. He also noted that the Euro has been volatile.
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov commented ahead of G20 that Russia sought specific language against Fx intervention. He noted that major economies must have a predictable fiscal policy. On Cyprus he noted that bail-in risked social tensions and stressed that Europe must lead Cyprus rescue. Russia was not considering buying debt of new countries
- Poland Central Bank member Glapinski commented that the March rate meeting will be a difficult debate and a close call. He believed policy should pause at this time for remainder of 2013. Any CPI drop below 1.5% was seen as temporary and rate disparity needed to avoid bond selloff
- Fitch Sovereign Director Parker: Turkey stats revision won't affect sovereign rating
- India PM Economic Adviser Rangarajan commented that easing inflation to give central bank greater room to cut interest rates although retail inflation remained high. He reiterated that FY GDP growth will be above the advanced reading of 5.0%
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Talks with Iran have yet to reach any agreement
- Iran President Ahmandinejad: Will not react to pressure on nuclear program

- The negative GDP data across Europe put into question whether the worst of the EMU crisis was behind us.
- The EUR/USD began the session just above the 1.34 handle following weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP readings from both France and Germany and slumped further after Italy and Euro Zone GDP data disappointed. The weaker data prompted speculation that perhaps the ECB might position itself for a rate cut at some point although European officials and central bankers have noted that economic prospects had improved since beginning of 2013. German Econ Min Roesler reiterated that weakness in German economy was only temporary. However ECB Professional Forecasters cut their CPI and growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 for the EMU. The EUR/USD tested 3-week lows of 1.3335 just ahead of the NY morning. ECB's Constancio also commented again on possible negative rates again (same as its December comments)
- USD/JPY was steady in the session around the 93.50 area as the G20 meeting likely reduced appetite for speculative positioning.
- GBP continues to trade heavily after yesterday's BoE Inflation Report and moved below the 1.55 handle for fresh 6-month lows
Political/ In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB Nowotny (Austria): No need to act now on exchange rates; may need to discuss the issue if the currency situation becomes more accentuated
- (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium): Non standard measures should only be temporary
- (EU) S&P sovereign analysis chief Kraemer: Still a challenging outlook for euro zone peripheral nations; Do not believe LTRO repayments are a game changer for euro zone.
- (EU) EU sets out financial tax proposal for 11 willing nations - financial press; EU sees tax plan to generate 30-35B/yr
- (EU) EU's Rehn: Ongoing economic weakness in Europe is related to the continuing deleveraging process; must continue fiscal consolidation; Countries may be awarded longer periods to fix deficit problems if growth unexpectedly declines
- (FR) France PM Ayrault: Unlikely France will meet its deficit target of 3% in 2013
- (US) Fed's Bullard: May slow bond purchases if economic news is strong

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (1st of two days)
- 06:00 (EU) EU to proposed financial transaction tax (tobin tax) for 11 member States
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Feb 8th: No est v $ prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jan M3 Money Supply M/M: -1.0%e v +2.2% prior; M3 Money Supply Level: 912.8Be v 921.8B prior
- 08:30 (US) Grain Net Export data
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 360Ke v 366K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.205Me v 3.224M prior
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo before Senate
- 10:00 (US) Philly Fed Survey for GDP, inflation and employment
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 30-year TIPS refunding announcement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $4.75-5.75B in notes
- 12:50 (US) Fed member Bullard speaks on economy in Mississippi
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Exports FOB: No est v $4.7B prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q: No est v -0.4% prior




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