Friday February 15, 2013 - 03:35:03 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 15-Feb-2013 -0333 GMT
Dow Jones (13973.39, -0.07%) traded absolutely flat near the upper end of its 13850-14050 range. It is likely to stay flat for the week inside the range. US industrial production is expected to be 0.30% (YoY) which has to be watched today.
A-Pac is trading mixed with Australia (5054.40, -0.06%), Hang Seng (23387.15, -0.11%) and Taiwan (7906.65, +0.25%)
Shanghai (2432.40) is closed for the whole week on account of the Chinese New Year holidays
Nikkei (11202.21, -0.93%) is lower today and can trade in the sideways 11000-11475 range for some time now. Down side is safe till 11000 is held by the index.
Nifty (5896.95, -0.61%) ended lower and looked weak. It is now threatening to break its 5900-870 support region which can take it lower towards 5820-00 and even to 5750 in the coming days.
Oil looks ranged in the immediate term, medium term perspective is positive. Gold and Silver both are looking weak and can fall further while Copper needs to break its immediate resistance to move up.
Nymex Crude (97.39, +0.08%) continues to trade in its 95-98 sideways range within its overall uptrend which is targeting 103.00 in the coming days.
Brent (117.95, -0.04%) can also trade sideways in the 117-19 range. It is Likely to break the tight range on the upside for a target of 122-23 in the coming days.
Gold (1632.90, -0.16%) is trading lower in its 1700-1625 range. The weekly and the 3-Day charts are looking bearish to break below 1625 which can push it further lower towards 1575-50 in the coming days/weeks.
Silver (30.34, -0.04%) is looking bearish for a fall to 29.00 levels where it can get bought again. In the immediate term it looks negative though.
Copper (3.74, +0.21%) has to break 3.75-78 firmly to see a further rise towards 3.85-90.
The Euro is weak after the bad GDD data yesterday. Yen can strengthen a bit in the near term. The Pound and Swiss remains weak while the Aussie is consolidating. The Dollar-Index (80.39) has risen back above 80 and looks good for a rise to 80.70-80.
The Euro (1.3364) fell sharply on the weaker than expected Euro GDP data, instead of holding above 1.34. Important Support is there near 1.3300 and 1.3250 which can limit further downside. Dollar-Yen (92.85) has broken below 93.00 and can move down further towards 92.00-91.80. Weakness in the Euro has pushed Euro-Yen (124.08) lower and it may see 123.25 on the downside.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9216) has risen above 0.9200 and can target 0.9270-9300. The Pound (1.5514) has declined further and could be headed to much lower levels of 1.5300-5250. The Aussie (1.0359) remains above the 200-DMA (currently at 1.0314) and is consolidating sideways. Immediate outlook is not clear.
The Korean-Won (1078) has strengthened well over the last few days and can strengthen further towards 1075. USD-SGD (1.2359) is ranged between 1.2300 and 1.2450. Dollar-Rupee (53.92) had closed higher yesterday and looks mixed between 53.60 and 54.10. A breakout on either side will decide the further direction of move.
The Spanish 10Yr yield remains flat at its Support at 5.20%. Whether this Support holds or breaks will decide on whether the yield is rising back to 5.40%-5.50% or moving down to 5.00%. The Spain-German yield differential has bounced back a bit by 3bps to 3.56% and is mixed.
The US 10Yr yield has come off 5bps to 2%. We see very good chances of a rise to 2.20%-2.25%.
The BOJ left the interest rates unchanged at <0.10% and no further new stimulus was announced.
9:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU Trade Bal
...Expected 10.7 Bln ...Previous 11.0 Bln
13:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected 34.30 $ Bln ...Previous 52.30 $ Bln
13:15 GMT or 19:45 IST US Industrial Production
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.31 %
13:15 GMT or 19:45 IST US Capacity Utilization
...Expected 78.90 % ...Previous 78.80 %
BOJ Meeting (%)
...Actual <0.10% ...Previous <0.10%
...Actual -0.60% ...Previous -0.10%
...Actual -0.10 % ...Previous -1.00%
...Actual 6.62% ...Previous 7.18%
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