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Wednesday February 20, 2013 - 11:25:03 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: BOE minutes come in more dovish than anticipated with Gov King in minority for the 4th time in his 10-year tenure EU Market Update: BOE minutes come in more dovish than anticipated with Gov King in minority for the 4th time in his 10-year tenure
Wed, 20 Feb 2013 5:49 AM EST

- Japan Jan Trade deficit is biggest on record
- FDI continues to fall in China despite signs of economic recovery
- Moody's says China avoided hard landing; Sees 2013 GDP at upper end of 7.5-8.5% range.
- Japan PM Abe: less need for the government and the private sector to jointly set up a fund to invest in foreign bonds
- Conservative front-runner Muto not named in the list of 4 finalists to replace outgoing BOJ Gov Shirakawa next month
- BOE minutes more dovish than expected; Vote on QE was 6-3; Gov King in the minority for only the fourth time in 10 years as BOE governor
- Spain said to Spain to impose caps on autonomous regions bond yields to a premium of 100bps
- EMU leaders said to be considering delaying France's 3% deficit target
- German 10-year Bund auction results seen weak, was almost technically uncovered; yield at highest level since April 2012

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Jan Final Consumer Price Index -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e

- (DE) Germany Jan Final CPI EU Harmonized -0.7% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (DE) Germany Jan Producer Prices M/M; 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.2%e
- (JP) Japan Jan Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -0.9% v -2.0% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI Hesse M/M: -0.5% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.7 v 2.2% prior
- (TH) Thailand Central left the Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 2.75%; as expected
- (FR) France Feb Business Confidence: 90 v 87e; Production Outlook: -36 v -34e ; Own-Company Production Outlook: +4 v -14 prior
- (FR) France Jan Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 124.36 v 124.6e

- (FR) France Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6%e ;
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI Saxony M/M: -0.5% v +1.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.2% prior
- (DK) Denmark Feb Consumer Confidence: -2.0 v -3.0e
- (ZA) South Africa Jan CPI (all items) M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.7%e
- (EU) ECB: 5.8B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 3.5B prior; 164.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 143,5B prior
- (SE) Sweden Q4 Total Number of Employees Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.9% prior
- (IT) Italy Dec Industrial Orders M/M: -1.8% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -15.3% v -9.5%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Industrial Sales M/M: +0.8% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -6.3% v -5.4% prior
- (MA) Malaysia Jan CPI Y/Y: 1.31.2%e
- (UK) BOE voted 9-0 to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%
- (UK) BOE voted 6-3 to maintain Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 375B; Gov King outvoted
- (UK) Jan Jobless Claims Change: -12.5K v -5.5Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.7% v 4.8%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +154K v +117Ke

- (UK) Dec Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e; Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e - (UK) Dec ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 7.7%e
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.5 v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.1% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.6 v +1.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.9% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI North Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: -0.6 v +1.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.9% prior
- (CH) Swiss Feb Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: +10.0 v -6.9 prior
- (MA) Malaysia Q4 GDP Y/Y: 6.4% v 5.5%e
- (MA) Malaysia Q4 Current Account: $22.8B v $9.5B prior

Fixed Income:
- (SE) Sweden to sell 5-year USD-denominated bond; guidance seen flat to mid-swaps
- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) 10-year Euro-denominated bond guidance seen at +125bps over mid-swaps
- (ES) Spain to sell 5-year USD-denominated bond; guidance seen +300bps over mid-swaps (implies a yield near 4.02%)
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B vs. SEK3.5B indicated in 1.5% 2023 Bonds; Yield 2.2102% v 1.9089% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.91x v 2.86x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $0M (nil) in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.65% vs. $1.0B prior
- (DE) Germany sold 4.04B in 1.5% 2023 Bunds; Avg Yield 1.66% v 1.56% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.2x v 1.7x prior
- (PT)) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total 1.5B vs. 1.5B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills

- Sold 345M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.737% v 0.667% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.4x v 3.8x prior
- Sold 1.155B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.277% v 1.609% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 2.3x prior


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.25% at 6,396
, DAX +0.20% at 7,765, CAC-40 -0.20% at 3,728, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 8,190, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 16,605, SMI +0.50% at 7,619, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,529

- European equity markets are currently mixed. The DAX, FTSE 100 and SMI have outperformed. The French CAC-40 has underperformed, as traders assess earnings reports from companies including Credit Agricole, Lafarge and France Telecom. European banks are mixed. Credit Agricole has outperformed the sector, following the release of its quarterly results. Barclays has been weighed down by analyst commentary. Resource-related firms are trading mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodities prices.

- UK movers [Rexam +3.5% (FY profits and sales rose y/y); RSA -12% (cut dividend),BHP -2% (management change), Barclays -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Lafarge +6% (Q4 results above ests),Credit Agricole +2% (adj Q4 results above ests) ; Havas -3.5 (cautious commentary for 2013), Television Francaise -2.5% (downgraded after FY results),Accor -2% (swung to loss in FY12)]
- Germany movers [SMA Solar +3.5% (broker commentary), Kabel Deutscheland +3% (Q3 results above ests), Axel Springer +1.9% (broker commentary),MTU Aero Engines +1.8% (broker commentary),Hochtief +1.5% (Australian unit mulling asset sales) ; Lufthansa -5% (suspended dividend), Dialog Semiconductor -1.5% (FY margins declined)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia Media +5% (ongoing M&A speculation)]
- The Netherlands movers [KPN -5.5% (rights offering), DSM -4% (Q4 results below ests), Akzo Nobel -4% (Q4 results below ests)]
- Belgium movers [Ageas +4% (Q4 results above ests, raised dividend)]

- Bank of England Minutes came in extremely dovish with the QE vote showing the biggest split since June 2012.
Gov King and member Fisher and Miles voted for an additional 25B to 400B in asset purchases. Overall MPC did see the case more QE to help economy rebalance with a more targeted approach. MPC noted that QE remained effective tool to lower market interest rates but drawbacks to policy options remained. MPC reviewed case for rate cut and buying assets other than Gilts
- Spain to impose caps on autonomous regions bond yields to a premium of 100bps
- EMU leaders said to be considering delaying France's 3% deficit target and the country might face excess deficit status and closer controls. ESM aid said to be studied for Portugal's bond market return - US financial press
- Portugal Fin Min Gaspar stated that he would talk about extra contingency measures of 0.5% GDP at next troika review and might revise lower GDP forecast by 1% with 2013 GDP seem at -2% as the Q4 economic drop would have impact on 2013 output. He added that it was reasonable to expect Brussels to give Portugal one extra year to meet budget targets
- IMF official Brekk commented that the economic slowdown in Russia was result of domestic factors and the country should undertake more ambitious fiscal adjustment. IMF saw 6% annual GDP growth with more decisive measures from Govt
- Swedish Debt Office released borrowing Forecast
which maintained its issuance views from last Oct. Sweden plans to issue SEK74B in nominal debt in 2013 vs. SEK74B Oct view and issue SEK84B in nominal debt in 2014 vs. SEK84B Oct view. The 2014 Net borrowing requirement seen at SEK63B vs. SEK56B prior Oct view. It forecasted 2013 GDP at 1.4% and at 2.4% in 2014
- Poland Central Banker Zielinska-Glebocka commented that she was additional room to cut interest rates and supported another cut in March. She did note that rate moves after March were dependent on CPI and GDP forecasts. She did see Polish CPI slowing for a few more months
- India Commerce Ministry stated that it would not meet FY12/13 export target and hoped to achieve exports of about $300B vs $350B target.
- Thailand Central Bank commented after its rate decision that the vote was 6 to 1 to hold rates steady with dissenter seeking a cut. It reiterated that interest rates were appropriate for growth and that growth was going ahead higher than forecast with domestic demand a key driver and exports seen gradually recovering. Inflationary pressure had risen somewhat since Jan meeting due to oil prices. It would monitor financial stability closely and take action on inflows if necessary
- Thailand Fin Min official urged early debt repayment to ease THB currency (baht) strength
- India said to be planning to borrow approx INR6.0T in next fiscal year but numbers had yet to be finalized. India Fin Min to present the FY14 budget on Feb 28th
- China 2012 outstanding credit card overdue payment at CNY1.14T, +40.1% y/y with the amount overdue 6-months or more +33% at CNY14.66B
- BoC Gov Zhou said to keep position, to be exempt from mandatory retirement at age 65

- The European session built on some positive risk appetite from Asia which initially weighed on the USD. However, EUR/USD saw the bulk of its Far East gains evaporate as the NY morning approached. Reports that France might face excess deficit status from the EU coupled with closer controls was a headwind.
- Trade weighted GBP at lowest level since Oct 2011. GBP remained under pressure on weak fundamentals and persistent rumors of a pending sovereign downgrade. The BOE minutes provided another catalyst for losses after the vote to increase QE was 6-3 vs. the prior 8-1 over the past three months which highlighted an unexpected dissension in the ranks. MPC considered cutting the repo rate nearer to zero, buying other assets and changing the remuneration of banks' reserves. The vote put Gov King in the minority for only the fourth time in 10 years as BOE governor. The GBP/USD tested 1.5310 following the release of the minutes.
- JPY was trading on a supportive footing as reports suggest that Japan PM Abe and Fin Min Aso said to disagree over the candidates for thenext BoJ Governor. The weak JPY trend did hit some more headwinds after Abe noted that the need for govt-private fund to buy foreign bonds was declining
- The Gilts were quite choppy in its price action. Following the release of the BOE minutes the 10-year gilt fel to test 2.13% vs 2.22% before BOE. The yield recovered somewhat as was around 2.19% just ahead of the NY morning.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) EU legislators and officials have been unable to reach agreement on new Basel III law but will continue talks - financial press
- (FR) ECB's Noyer: Investors would understand if France misses deficit targets; France must make efforts regarding public spending; ECB statements helps currencies stay in line with fundamentals; Not interested in a slight rate cut if it only helps the core euro zone.
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen (Germany): Reiterates sees stronger Q1 euro zone economy compared to prior disappointing Q4 - financial press
- Moody's: Spanish Banks face liquidity and funding challenges despite positive signs
- (US) PBoC researcher Jin Zhongxia expects the US dollar to strengthen over time - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard; Jin believes the US dollar is more resilient to shocks than the euro.
- (US) Fed's Lockhart: Fed should continue to purchase assets through 2013; benefits of program continue to outweigh risks; Unlikely labor market will improve markedly in the short term
- (US) House Speaker Boehner: President Obama has provided no 'credible plan' on a budget; Any replacement for sequester should be made through spending cuts only
- (JP) Japan govt said to have narrowed its list of prospective BOJ Governor candidates to 4; Former BoJ Dep Gov Muto is not on the list - Yomiuri; Report noting the list includes president of the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) Iwata, Gakushuin University professor Kikuo Iwata, Asian Development Bank President Kuroda, and Tokyo University professor Takatoshi Ito.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (RU) Russia to sell RUB30B in 7-year OFZ Bonds
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Jan CPI Bavaria M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior
- 06:00 (ES) Spain PM Rajoy State of the Nation Debate
- 06:30 (DE) German Bundesbank's Dombret Speech on Euro Debt Crisis: Berlin
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2016 and 2018 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Economic Activity index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 2.8% prior
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 15th: No est v -6.4% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:30 (US) Jan Housing Starts: 920Ke v 954K prior; Building Permits: 920Ke v 909K prior (revised from 903K)
- 08:30 (US) Jan Producer Price Index M/M: +0.4%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 2.0% prior

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) EU's Barnier
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Jan Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: -0.2%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior; House Price Index: No est v 153.45 prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Feb Advanced Consumer Confidence: -23.2e v -23.9 prior
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 11:45 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel visits Oslo for talks with PM Stoltenberg
- 14:00 (US) Fed releases minutes from Jan 29-30 FOMC Meeting
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Trade Balance: No est v -$183.2M prior; Imports CIF: No est v $5.2B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories



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