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Wednesday February 20, 2013 - 21:37:57 GMT
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Fed minutes hints roil markets. BOE minutes see a growing minority for additional QE. U.K. jobs data better. RBNZ talks down kiwi
|Fed minutes hints roil markets. BOE minutes see a growing minority for additional QE. U.K. jobs data better. RBNZ talks down kiwi|
21 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: No Major Data. Europe: CH- Trade, EZ- flash Mfg/Svc PMI's, GB- CBI Trends. North America: US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, Markit flash PMI, Philly Fed. Existing Homes Sales, LEI, Natural Gas, Weekly Crude
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: EZ- flash PMIs, US- CPI, weekly Jobs, Phiily Fed, Existing Homes Sales, Weekly Crude.
- Fed Minutes unexpectedly roiled the markets again this cycle as the FOMC sent a subtle signal that QE will not last forever. When it runs out remains to be seen, but this was the first shot across the bow for the markets.
- CURRENCY WARS: BOE meeting Minutes from two weeks ago saw support for an additional increase to QE, although the vote was only 6-3 in favor vs. 8-1 at the previous meeting. The GBPUSD fell on the news. January employment data released at the same time improved.Yesterday, S&P refused comment on market rumors about an impending downgrade of U.K. sovereign debt.
- The RBNZ talked down its currency on Wednesday and thus joined a long list of nations trying to manipulate the value of its unit. The NZDUSD was sharply lower on the day.
- In Europe, German Chancellor Merkel sounded off on the value of the EUR and sounded very similar to ECB President Draghi who seems at ease with current EURUSD levels.
- Thurs sees a number of key pieces of data from the various sources (see above).
- Mixed signals have been coming from Japan as PM Abe and his FinMin Aso do not appear to be on the same page on JPY policy. It may take a while to get the two on the same page. Perhaps that will come once the next BOJ is named after this coming weekend.
- Italy sees national elections on Sunday/Monday. Discontent with the status quo has seen a large number of undecided voters and a fragmentation of the electorate. Key is where austerity programs are headed.
USDJPY 20-day average is 92.60. EURJPY 20-day average is 124.56. 10-yr JGB: 0.75%, +1bp. Key Far East bourses were higher..
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3449.10-yr bund is 1.66%, +1 bp. European bourses: mixed.
U.S. 10-yr 2.02%, -1bp. U.S. shares down..
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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