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Thursday July 14, 2005 - 11:15:55 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD firm ahead of retail sales, but some apprehension will persist ahead of Monday TIC data.

• Confirmation of favourable fiscal trend allows lower official US deficit forecast.

• UK business survey mixed.

• US CPI, sales/inventories and BoC policy report also feature today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has not shown much in the way of recovery power overnight, with the market still being checked by yesterday’s lower than expected trade deficit. There are still likely to be some concerns about Monday’s TIC portfolio data in the US, but other data today and tomorrow is of a nature that has been more helpful to the USD in recent months. Retail sales today and the NY Fed index tomorrow should reaffirm the USD’s cyclical support in the face of ongoing structural uncertainties. Monday’s low at 1.1957 will probably need to break to suggest that a fresh test lower is the making, although below 1.2000 would also be a negative signal. The immediate level of interest today is the 1.2053 low from Tuesday. If the data over the next couple of days is in line with expectations and a net inflow of $50bn or more can be generated in the TIC data on Monday, there is every chance of more USD strength emerging.

Fiscal data released in the US yesterday was also favourable for the USD. The latest data for June showed the cumulative deficit for the current financial year (Oct 04-Sep 05) at $249.8bn compared $327.2bn in the first nine months of the previous year. This has prompted the government to cut its overall deficit forecast for this fiscal year to $333bn from the their previous forecast of $427bn issued in February (always generally considered as high) and $412bn for the previous year.

GBP has been uneven over the past day or so, with a false buy signal being sent on EUR-GBP on the move above 0.6900. Having subsequently failed on the topside yesterday there was a fairly prompt move back towards the bottom end of the current trading range, although a move below 0.6840 will be required to suggest a deeper pullback. GBP may also be hampered by the prospect of next week’s MPC minutes. The respected BCC survey this morning offered a mixed picture, with recoveries in manufacturing sales and orders being offset by a sharp downturn in service sector indicators.

Day Ahead
US – retail sales, CPI and business sales/inventories data features and it seems likely to support the current thesis of steady non-inflationary growth. Sales ex-autos have been a little choppy over the past couple of months, although averaging out +1.5% in April and -0.5% in May still leaves decent trend growth. Core CPI has become subdued again after the strength seen earlier in the year, while the sales/inventories mix (rising inventories and rising sales) has also been favourable recently.

Canada – the Bank of Canada release their Monetary Policy Report Update, where they will include their latest economic projections and advice on the likely direction of monetary policy. This has already been well set and should confirm that rates will be going up “in the near-term”. The statement should support the speculation about a September 7 rate hike that followed Tuesday’s post-BoC meeting statement. However, USD-CAD may continue to find it difficult to progress that much further in the very short-term, given how far it has come over the past week or so. Downside is still favoured eventually and in this regard there should be some comfort in being short USD-CAD, although there is a chance of a modest correction higher in the short-term (close to 1.22).

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Retail sales (Jun) m/m 08.30 +1.0%
US Retail sales ex-autos (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.6%
US CPI (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.3%
US CPI core (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Initial claims (w/e Jul 9) 08.30 323k
US Continuing claims (w/e Jul 2) 08.30 2581k last
CA Manu shipments (May) m/m 08.30 +0.4%
CA BoC Monetary Policy Report Update 10.30

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ CPI (Q2) q/q +0.9% +0.9%
ES CPI (Jun) y/y +3.1% +3.1%
EU GDP (Q1, final) q/q +0.5% +0.5%
GB BCC survey – manu sales (Q2) +19 +14 last
GB BCC survey – manu orders (Q2) +18 +11 last
GB BCC survey – serv sales (Q2) +12 +23 last
GB BCC survey – serv orders (Q2) +9 +18 last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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