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Thursday February 21, 2013 - 11:46:23 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Major European flash February PMI come in weaker than expected and remain in contraction territory

Thursday, February 21, 2013 5:40:16 AM EU Market Update: Major European flash February PMI come in weaker than expected and remain in contraction territory

- Hawkish FOMC minutes spark a massive profit-taking across asset classes as some members suggested there's a need to taper or vary pace of purchases
- China PBoC drained a net of
CNY910B (record) from the money market by selling 28-day and 91-day repos; Shanghai Composite falls 3.0% in session
- EU Commission said to issue worse outlook for France its winter update (**Note to be released on Friday, Feb 22nd)
- Major European advance PMI readings for France, Germany and Euro Zone miss expectations across the board </
>- Spain auction results healthy as it sells more than indicated in 3-tranche bond issuance
- French borrowing costs rise for its 2015 and 2018 issues
- BOE transfers of QE profits helps UK public finances in Jan
- USD Index at highest level since Sept 5th 2012

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Feb 15th: $529.5B v $532.5B prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan Trade Balance (CHF): 2.1B v 1.7Be; Real Exports M/M: 3.7% v 0.3%e; Real Imports M/M: -0.5 v +5.1% prior
- (FR) France Feb Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 43.6 v 43.8e; PMI Services: 42.7 v 44.4e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 4.9% v 3.9%e
- (DK) Denmark Jan Retail Sales M/M: -0.8% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.6 v -3.5% prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.2 v 9.8% prior
- (CH) Swiss Q4 Real Estate Index Family Homes: 419.3 v 412.9 prior
- (EU) ECB: 3.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 5.8B prior; 165.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 164.5B prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 50.1 v 50.5e; PMI Services: 54.1 v 55.5e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb Consumer Confidence: -44 v -35 prior
- (NL) Netherlands Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.2% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Jan House Price Index M/M: -2.9% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -9.6% v -6.3% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 47.8 v 48.5e; PMI Services: 47.3 v 49.0e; PMI Composite: 47.3 v 49.0e </
>- (UK) Jan Public Finances (PSNCR): -35.6B v -35.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: -11.4B v -8.7Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: -9.9B v -9.5Be
- (UK) Jan Car Production at 129.1K, +1.2% y/y - SMMT
- (PL) Central/Eastern European Feb ZEW Indicator: +36.3 v +27.0 prior

Fixed Income: </
>- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.23B vs.3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2015, 2019 and 2023 bond
- Sold 1.112B in March 2.75% 2015 Bono bond; Avg Yield 2.540% v 2.823% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.69x v 2.21x prior; Maximum Yield 2.570% v 2.889% prior; Tail 3.0bps v 6.6bps prior
- Sold 548M in 4.3% 2019 Bono bond; Avg Yield 4.275% v 6.701% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.54x v 2.94x prior; Max Yield 4.294% v 6.798% prior; Tail 1.9bps v 9.7bps prior
- Sold 2.568B in 2023 bonds; Avg Yield 5.202% v 5.290% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.6x v 2.29x prior; Max Yield 5.222% v 5.322% prior; Tails 2.0bps v 3.2bps prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.98B vs. 7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2015, 2017 and 2018 BTANs/OATs
- Solds 1.89B in 2.0% 2015 BTAN; Avg Yield 0.41% v 0.34% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.31x v 3.45x prior
- Sold 1.75B in 4.25% in Oct 2017 OAT; avg yield 0.95% v 1.05% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.57x v 2.73x prior
- Sold 4.34B in 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 1.12% v 1.06% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.995x v 1.90x prior
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold 500M vs. 500M indicated in 3-month bills; Avg Yield 0.240% v 0.200% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.28x v 3.79x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 2.25B in 1.75% 2022 Gilts ; Avg Yield 2.147% v 1.803% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.25x v 1.69x prior; Tail 0.1bps v 0.3bps prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF48B vs.
HUF43B indicated in 2016, 2018 and 2028 Bonds


***Equities*** </
>Indices: FTSE 100 -1.4% at 6,303, DAX -1.5% at 7,616, CAC-40 -1.4% at 3,658, IBEX-35 -1.2% at 8,058, FTSE MIB -2.4% at 16,132, SMI -1% at 7,542, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1,503

- European equity markets are broadly lower, tracking Wednesday's declines in the US markets, which came following the release of the Fed FOMC minutes. Today's weakness has been led by Italian equities (FTSE MIB down over 2%). Additionally, weaker than expected PMI data has weighed on the German DAX and French CAC-40. European banks are mostly lower, as traders assess recent commentary out of the US Fed. The weakness in commodity prices has led to declines in most resource-related companies. In terms of earnings, today's corporate reporting was dominated by French and
UK companies. US firms due to report later today include large retailer Wal-Mart.

- UK movers [CSR +12.5% (guided Q1 results above ests), RM Plc +12% (CEO change), Sports Direct +4.5% (Q3 sales rose y/y), BAE Systems +4% (raised dividend, announced buyback), Premier Foods +3.5% (FY sales above ests); New World Resources -5.5% (swung to FY12 net loss),Tullow Oil -1% (unfavorable drilling results in Kenya), Kingfisher -0.80% (Q4 sales declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Grenkeleasing -5% (capital raise), Bertrandt -3% (ex-dividend),ThyssenKrupp -2% (cost concerns)]
- France movers [Technip +1% (Q4 results above ests), Axa -2.5% (FY12 results below ests)]
- Italy movers [Italian banks have underperformed the EU banking sector ahead of elections (Feb 24-25th)]
- Switzerland movers [SwissRe +1.4% (Q4 results above ests, special dividend); Straumann -2.5% (FY12 results below ests)]

Speakers: </
>- German Chancellor Merkel addressed her Parliament in regards to the recent agreement of the EU 7-year budget. She noted that the EU budget agreement allowed for Euro stability and more economic growth as it improves competitiveness in the trade bloc
- Poland Fin Min Rostowski: Economic slowdown to last between 12-18 months
- EU Commission said to see Italy 2012 Deficit to
GDP ratio at 2.9% and falling to 2.0% in 2013. The 2011 deficit to GDP ratio was 3.9%
- EU Commission might approve Spain 2012 deficit noting that a Budget Deficit below 7% of GDP (ex bank aid) was seen as reasonable
- Poland Central Bank's Hausner: Central Bank should consider ending monetary easing cycle
- Poland Central Bank member Glapinski reiterated that Poland should stop rate cuts and enter a pause period; Polish outlook improved on better German data and the recent Jan CPI should not boost rate cut expectations
- Japan Econ Min Amari: To take steps to ease import rise impact if necessary- Parliament comments
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Sharp rise in import prices would pose a big problem for Japan
- Japan Senior Finance Ministry Official Yamaguchi: Foreign-bond buying by government and BoJ not likely to be a topic of the US-Japan Summit

Currencies: </
>- Risk aversion theme continued in Asia and Europe following the FOMC minutes which painted a picture of hawkish undertones and possible early end to QE3. The USD benefited from the sentiment and was bid across the board following FOMC minutes. USD Index at highest level since
Sept 5th 2012
- The EUR/USD hit a 6-week low at 1.3174 in the session following weaker Euro zone flash February PMI readings which remained in contraction territory. Improvements in this series had been a source of hope for the EMU.
- GBP continued its soft tone following the Wed release of the BoE minutes. During the Asian session Cable elected stops in thin trade which fueled a push under 1.5135. The diverging Fed/BOE QE expectations sent GBP/USD to its lowest level since July 2010 during
Asia. The GBP managed to find some steady footing during the European session and climbed back above the 1.52 handle following surpluses registered in the January UK public finance data (**Note aided by BOE transfers of QE profits to UK Treasury)
- The JPY was slightly firmer in the session. Dealers continue to note mixed signals coming from
Japan as PM Abe and his Fin Min Aso did not appear to be on the same page on JPY policy. USD/JPY remained within recent range and at 93.30 area entering the NY morning.
- Dealers noted that caution in markets would likely to prevail as several key events still loom over the next week including the weekend Italian election, US sequester concerns and uncertainty of the naming of BOJ candidates.

Political/In the Papers:
- (FR) EU forecasts France 2013
GDP at flat-0.1%; deficit at 3.6%/GDP; (**Reminder: European Commission is expected to revise its GDP forecasts on Feb 22nd)
- (DE) German Finance Ministry: Still expects 2013 GDP at 0.4% - financial press; Jan tax revenue is down 6.4% y/y.
- (GR) EC Spokesperson O'Connor (for Rehn): Denies press reports that the troika is pressuring Greece to layoff 25,000 public sector workers - ekathimerini
- (EU) Norway PM Stoltenberg: Euro debt crisis is now an employment crisis, acute danger in Europe has been tamped down - joint press conference with German Chancellor Merkel
- (US) Fed's Rosengren (moderate, FOMC voter in 2013) said aggressive FOMC policies are appropriate; Fisher and Stein are concerned about risks related to the growth in the credit markets - financial press; Also, Kansas City Fed official George said the Fed's bond buying programs could lead to imbalances; The Fed is expected to review its bond buying program at its March meeting (March 19-20th)
- (CN) PBoC drained a net of CNY910B (record) from the money market by selling 28-day and 91-day repos; Ahead of the Lunar New Year Holiday (Feb 10-16th), the PBoC injected a record CNY662B into the money market.
- (CN) China top four banks' new yuan loans in Feb 1-17th were CNY250B v CNY180B for all of Feb 2012 - China press
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: To speak with New Komeito party about appointment of the next BOJ Gov after returning from US on Sunday
- (JP) Japan Public Pension fund (
GPIF) to consider possible asset reallocation; may increase domestic stocks weighting - Nikkei News

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) NATO Defense Ministers begin 2-day meeting in Brussels
- (PT) Portugal Dec Current Account: No est v -290.3M prior
- 06:00 (UK) Feb CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -15e v -20 prior; Selling Prices: +15e v +21 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan CPI M/M; No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M; No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan PPI M/M; No est v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 1.5-2.5B in 0.25% 2024 OATei
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic. to sell CZK8.0B in 9-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble
- 08:30 (US) Jan Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.7% prior </
>- 08:30 (US) Jan CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Consumer Price Index NSA: 230.304e v 229.601 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 231.938e v 231.475 prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 355Ke v 341K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.150Me v 3.115M prior
- 08:58 (US) Feb Preliminary Markit PMI Manufacturing: 55.5e v 55.8 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Retail Sales: 2.0%e v 3.5% prior
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2016 Bills
- 09:30 (US) Weekly Commercial Paper stats
- 10:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 10:00 (US) Feb Philadelphia Fed: +1.1e v -5.8 prior </
>- 10:00 (US) Jan Existing Home Sales: 4.90Me v 4.94M prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan Leading Indicators: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Inventories
- 11:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency Releases Safety Decisions
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.00-3.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 2-year, 5-year and 7-year Note announcement
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks About Monetary Policy in New York
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $9.0B in 30-Year TIPS
- 13:15 (UK) BOE member Miles
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Trade Balance: $450Me v $529M prior
- (AR) Argentina Feb Consumer Confidence: No est v 46.9 prior
- 17:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti
- 17:30 (AU) Austral Central Bank (RBA) Gov Stevens semi-annual testimony to panel in Canberra




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