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Thursday February 21, 2013 - 21:40:09 GMT
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EZ and U.S. data softer than expected. Markets focus on latest Fed Minutes from Wednesday. German IFO and Canadian data Friday
|EZ and U.S. data softer than expected. Markets focus on latest Fed Minutes from Wednesday. German IFO and Canadian data Friday|
22 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: No Major Data. Europe: DE- IFo Survey. EZ- HICP (CPI). North America: CA- CPI, Retail Sales. US- COT Report
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFo Survey, EZ- HICP (CPI), CA- CPI, Retail Sales
- CURRENCY WARS: Key data from the Eurozone and the U.S. generally were on the soft side on Thursday Eurozone flash February PMI data today were weaker than expected and remain in contraction. Improvements in this series had been a source of hope for the EZ.
- U.S. data, especially the Philly Fed index were on the soft side as well. Markets just on Wednesday were upset by the latest Fed meeting minutes which were seen as a warning that the end to excessive central bank ease will come at some time in the future.
- A key focus for trade now are Italian national elections on Sunday and Monday. Discontent with the status quo has seen a large number of undecided voters and a fragmentation of the electorate. Key is where austerity programs are headed.
- Friday sees major German data (IFO Survey) and important Canadian statistics.
- A key item for Japan is who will be appointed the next BOJ Governor. Progress on this front will come some time after PM Abe returns from his U.S trip this weekend.
USDJPY 20-day average is 92.76. EURJPY 20-day average is 124.37. 10-yr JGB: 0.74%, -1bp. Key Far East bourses: down..
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3439.10-yr bund is 1.58%, -8bp. European bourses: down.
U.S. 10-yr 1.98%%, -4bp. U.S. shares down..
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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