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Friday February 22, 2013 - 16:29:14 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Risk Back On Following H-P, European Rally US Market Update: Risk Back On Following H-P, European Rally
Fri, 22 Feb 2013 11:01 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IT) Italy Dec Retail Sales M/M: +0.2% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -3.8% v -3.2%e
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Feb 9th: $293.5B v $294.5B prior
- (BR) Brazil Feb IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (TR) Turkey Feb Industrial Confidence: 107.5 v 102.1 prior; Capacity Utilization: 72.2% v 72.4% prior
- (CA) Canada Jan Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Consumer Price Index: 121.1 v 121.5e
- (CA) Canada Jan CPI Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (CA) Canada Dec Retail Sales M/M: -2.1% v -0.3%e; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e
- (BR) Brazil Jan Current Account: -$11.4B v -$9.7Be; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $3.7B v $4.9Be
- (BE) Belgium Feb Business Confidence: -11.0 v -12.0e
- (MX) Mexico Jan Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 5.0%e

- Yesterday's hiccup of risk aversion is forgotten today as the European equity rally on lighter-than-expected LTRO repayments plus solid gains in tech thanks to H-P are driving things higher. The DJIA is up 0.39%, the S&P500 is up 0.35% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 0.43%.

- The euro plunged to six-week lows after the LTRO repayment announcement. Banks repaid 61.1B, which was below expectations of 130B. USD/CAD tested above the 1.0225 level after CPI and retail sales data came in light. Thi was the weakest level for CAD since last July.

- Investors are applauding Hewlett-Packard's surprisingly positive Q1 results. The firm topped consensus earnings and revenue expectations and its guidance for Q2 was strong. Multiple analysts raised ratings and PTs on the name overnight. Nevertheless, the firm continues to bleed revenue; on CNBC, CEO Whitman said that revenue would only return to growth in 2014. Shares of HPQ are up 10%.

- Newly-minted hedge fund darling AIG is up nearly 4% this morning after reporting earnings. On an operating basis, the firm widely beat expectations, however that is before factoring in the firm's $4B quarterly losss from the sale of ILFC and the Sandy storm impact.

- Abercrombie & Fitch is getting hammered today after earnings. The firm's Q4 performance met expectations and it raised the dividend 14%, however comps are still sliding lower and the firm's initial FY13 guidance was weighed down by a new method of accounting for inventory. In addition, its Q1 outlook was very weak. ANF is down 7.5%.

- Darden Restaurants offered very soft guidance halfway through its Q3. The firm's outlook for the quarter was terrible and it cut its FY13 forecast. The firm warned that prominent headwinds from "increased payroll taxes and rising gasoline prices put meaningful pressure on the discretionary purchasing power of our guests." Counterintuitively, DRI is up 3% on the news.

***Looking Ahead***
- (PT) Portugal releases Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (PE) Peru Q4 GDP Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.5% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Overnight Lending Rate by 25bps to 3.75%
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 15:00 (IT) Italy PM candidate press conferences
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.9%e v 6.7% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.3%e v -4.1% prior
- 18:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo speaks on regulations in NY


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Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
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