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Currency Wars continue. Italian elections through Monday. Bernanke Tuesday and Wednesday. New BOJ head Kuroda?
|Currency Wars continue. Italian elections through Monday. Bernanke Tuesday and Wednesday. New BOJ head Kuroda? |
25 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: CN- HSBC flash PMI. Europe: IT- Elections (final day). North America: US- 2-yr
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: IT- National Elections, CN- HSBC flash PMI
- CURRENCY WARS: The "Currency Wars" continue as various officials do what they can to manipulate the value of their currencies in their self-interest. We don't think the JPY devaluation efforts have ended in Japan, although they might have paused for a short while. Europe speaks with numerous voices, but Germany has been expressing satisfaction with the current level of the EUR and France wants it weaker. The U.S. doesn't say much these days but clearly would not be unhappy if the USD falls.
- Late on Friday Moody's took away the coveted AAA rating of the U.K. and downgraded it to Aa1 with a stable outlook. A downgrade was not unexpected but it came earlier than expected. The GBP fell on the news.
- Forex market sentiment has made a major shift in the latest week after Fed Meeting Minutes sent a hint that eventually there will be an end to Fed Quantitative Ease. This comes following a recent improvement in U.S. economic data, although latest data have turned a bit softer.
- Italian national elections started on Sunday and will continue through Monday. There has been a blackout on publishing election polls in the week before national elections in Italy. Markets do not have a good view what will happen with the electorate unhappy with the present state of the economy.
- In Japan a key item is is who will be appointed the next BOJ Governor. There were rumors over the weekend that former FinMin Kuroda will be getting the job some time after PM Abe returns from his U.S trip this weekend.
- Looking ahead, Tuesday and Wednesday will see key Congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Bond markets are looking for a clarifications of the latest Fed Minutes. Recall that Bernanke is in the "dove" camp at the Fed.
- The week ahead sees GDP data from the U.K., Switzerland, the U.S. and Canada, and the start of final February PMI releases on Friday.
USDJPY 20-day average is 92.88. EURJPY 20-day average is 124.71. 10-yr JGB: 0.73%, -1bp. Key Far East bourses: MIXED..
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3426.10-yr bund is 1.57%, -1bp. European bourses: UP
U.S. 10-yr 1.97%, -1bp. U.S. shares: UP..
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
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