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Italian elections generating market turmoil. Bernanke testifies Tuesday and Wednesday. New BOJ head Kuroda?
|Italian elections generating market turmoil. Bernanke testifies Tuesday and Wednesday. New BOJ head Kuroda? |
26 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: No Major Data. Europe: GB- CBI Distributive Trades. North America: Case-Shiller, Richmond Fed, New Homes Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, 5-yr
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Case-Shiller, New Homes Sales, CB Consumer Confidence
- CURRENCY WARS: The "Currency Wars" continue as various officials do what they can to manipulate the value of their currencies in their self-interest. We don't think the JPY devaluation efforts have ended in Japan, although they might have paused for a short while.
- Tuesday and Wednesday will see key Congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Bond markets are looking for a clarifications of the latest Fed Minutes. Recall that Bernanke is in the "dove" camp at the Fed.
- Italian national elections have turned out to be much closer than most had expected and could result in a second vote if no government can be formed. The EUR does not like the prospect of an unsettled Italian government..
- In China the flash HSBC PMI was considerably weaker than forecast at 50.4. The Chinese economy is often seen as a AUD proxy figure.
- Late Friday Moody's lowered the coveted U.K. AAA sovereign debt rating and downgraded it to Aa1 with a stable outlook. A downgrade was not unexpected but it came earlier than forecast.
- In Japan a key item is who will be appointed the next BOJ Governor. There were rumors over the weekend that former FinMin Kuroda who favors PM Abe's aggressive stimulus will be getting the job. Some time after PM Abe returns from his U.S. visit.
USDJPY 20-day average is 92.91. EURJPY 20-day average is 124.58. 10-yr JGB: 0.71%, -2bp. Key Far East bourses: HIGHER..
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3407.10-yr bund is 1.56%, -1bp. European bourses: UP
U.S. 10-yr 1.90%, -7bp. U.S. shares: DOWN..
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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