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Tuesday February 26, 2013 - 10:34:03 GMT
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Italian election outcome unclear and upsetting markets. Bernanke testifies Today and Wednesday
|Italian election outcome unclear and upsetting markets. Bernanke testifies Today and Wednesday |
26 February 2013 11:00 gmt
CALENDAR- North America: Case-Shiller, Richmond Fed, New Homes Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, 5-yr
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Case-Shiller, New Homes Sales, CB Consumer Confidence
- Italian national elections have ended with the worst possible outcome, which is no clear result. Investors had hoped that difficult financial reforms would continue, but that is in doubt if a weak coalition government can be formed. If a government cannot be formed then there will have to be another round of elections and a caretaker government installed.
- Worries about the possible impact of Italian political uncertainty on the Euro experiment has weighed on equity markets around the globe and given bond prices in major countries a lift on flight to safety demand.
- Today and Wednesday will see key Congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Markets have been looking for a clarifications of the latest Fed Minutes. Recall that Bernanke is in the "dove" camp at the Fed. Markets will be looking for any reassuring comments he might have about the Italian crisis.
- In Japan a key item is who will be appointed the next BOJ Governor. There were rumors over the weekend that former FinMin Kuroda who favors PM Abe's aggressive stimulus will be getting the job. We don't think the JPY devaluation efforts have ended in Japan, although they might have paused for a short while.
USDJPY 20-day average is 92.91. EURJPY 20-day average is 124.58. 10-yr JGB: 0.69%, -2bp. Key Far East bourses: LOWER.
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3407.10-yr bund is 1.48%, -8bp. European bourses: DOWN
U.S. 10-yr 1.87%, -3bp. U.S. shares: UP.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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