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Bernanke testimony seen as dovish. He resumes on Wednesday. The Italian political crisis continues
|Bernanke testimony seen as dovish. He resumes on Wednesday. The Italian political crisis continues|
27 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: JP- Retail Sales. Europe: CH- KOF Index, GB- GDP, EZ- Economic/Business Sentiment, Draghi, Consumer Sentiment. North America: US- Weekly Mortgage Stats, Durable Goods, Bernanke, Pending Homes Sales, Weekly Crude, 7-yr
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Retail Sales, GB- GDP, Draghi, US- Durable Goods, Bernanke, Weekly Crude
- Italian national elections ended with no clear result. Investors had hoped that difficult financial reforms would continue, but that is in doubt if a weak coalition government can be formed. If a government cannot be formed then there will have to be another round of elections and a caretaker government installed. It will take a while for the political wheels to turn.
- Worries Italian political uncertainty weighed on equity markets around the globe and given bond prices in major countries a lift (lower rates) on flight to safety demand.
- Wednesday sees the second round of key Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. As expected, markets read the Fed Chairman as dovish and this view saw gold prices spike higher. U.S. data release over the day were stronger than expected.
- In Japan a key item remains who will be appointed the next BOJ Governor. There were "leaked" over the weekend that former FinMin Kuroda who favors PM Abe's aggressive stimulus will be getting the job.We don't think the JPY devaluation efforts have ended, although they might have paused for a short while.
USDJPY 20-day average is 92.97. EURJPY 20-day average is 124.46. 10-yr JGB: 0.69%, -2bp. Key Far East bourses: LOWER.
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3386.10-yr bund is 1.48%, -8bp. European bourses: DOWN
U.S. 10-yr 1.88%, -2bp. U.S. shares: UP.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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