User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday July 14, 2005 - 14:10:01 GMT
INVESTICA Ltd - www.investica.co.uk

Share This Story:
| | Email

Dollar resistance likely to increase

The US trends suggest that dollar confidence should remain relatively firm in the short term with the US currency gaining further support from yield considerations. The US structural weaknesses have stabilised for now and the markets will be reluctant to give up on the dollar in the near term, but the underlying situation is still precarious, especially with the current account deficit heading towards 7.0% of GDP. Only a slight deterioration in US fundamentals could spark a substantial shift in sentiment towards the US currency.

The stabilisation in sentiment, together with the potential for central bank Euro buying, will curb selling pressure on the Euro and also suggests that the dollar will see selling interest on renewed rallies beyond 1.20. It is also the case that the markets have priced in favourable developments over the next few months and the US currency will be vulnerable on any setbacks to this optimistic scenario.

The underlying dollar risk profile is liable to increase during the second half of the year, especially if oil prices remain at high levels, and there will be strong selling interest if it appears that US interest rates have peaked. Uncertainty is liable to dominate initially with indecisive movements, especially with lower liquidity. Overall, a period of range trading is realistic in the short term with a still firm dollar bias. The US currency is, however, then likely to come under fresh selling pressure, especially during the fourth quarter of the year.

Questions over the dollar outlook

Following strong gains during June, the dollar is now at an important point against the US currency. The Euro rally from lows below 1.19 against the dollar to 1.2250 will inevitably jolt market confidence in the US currency even though the dollar has since rallied again back to around 1.21.

The US currency was due for a relapse after strong gains since May and the clear-out of long speculative positions could set the scene for renewed dollar gains during the remainder of the third quarter. The markets are, however, likely to pay close attention to near-term trends given that the weakness early this week has revived the underlying dollar fears to some extent.

Mixed fundamentals

The overall evidence on the US currency remains mixed. On the positive side, the US will maintain positive yield differentials relative to the Euro. The US Federal Reserve is likely to increase US rates to 3.5% in August and the yield spread on 10-year bonds over German bunds is still fluctuating close to the 90 basis point level.

The US employment data for June was weaker than expected, but the increase was still consistent with firm US growth. Retail sales rose strongly in June with a 1.7% monthly increase. The near-term data will still be important, especially with uncertainty over the impact of high oil prices on consumer and business spending. There will be a small risk of a sudden drop in consumer spending, especially if bond yields are forced higher.

Consumer prices were unchanged in June and the underlying increase was held to 0.1% and the annual core increase fell to 2.0% from 2.2%. The inflation data does not suggest that the Fed needs to tighten interest rates aggressively.

The US trade deficit for May was slightly better than expected at US$55.3bn from US$56.9bn the previous month. Oil prices however, have increased strongly since then and there will be increased fears over the third-quarter trade outlook. The current account deficit is liable to head towards 7.0% of GDP this year, reinforcing the huge demands for foreign capital.

The US trade deficit is slightly less of an issue than it was earlier this year, but there is no room for complacency, especially as recent capital inflows data have been generally disappointing. The budget position has shown some significant improvement this year as tax revenue has increased. The administration ahs cut the fiscal 2005 deficit forecast to US$333bn from US$425bn. Spending levels are, however, still too high for longer-term budget stability and there will be fresh deterioration if the US economy slows. The budget will also be very sensitive to only small changes in GDP growth rates.

Euro sentiment stabilises

Sentiment on the Euro appears to have stabilised even if confidence is still fragile at best. The Euro has also performed better on the crosses over the past two weeks which also suggests that confidence has recovered to some extent. There is evidence of a slightly improved economic performance, notably in Germany, and a slight reduction in pressure for an ECB interest rate cut. The political fears have also eased slightly, although the political and economic vulnerabilities are still evident.

It is potentially very important that there have been reports of central bank Euro buying close to the 1.20 level while the UAE central bank also suggested that it could consider a limited switch into the Euro at the lower levels seen over the past weeks. Structural Euro buying at low levels are likely to offer significant Euro support.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105