Thursday February 28, 2013 - 03:44:37 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 28-Feb-2013 -0342 GMT
Huge rise in the Dow (14075.37, +175.24, +1.26%) last night, taking Tuesday's rally further up. The sideways range/ consolidation could be over and the Dow can rise even further now, if the rally sustains.
All of Asia-Pac is a bright light green, ranging from +0.22% (Taiwan) to +1.85% (Nikkei). Kuroda has been nominated as the BOJ governor. The Nikkei (11462) has reprised itself and might try to rise past 11600. The Shanghai (2324, +0.49%) has not risen much though and could be vulnerable to some more downside.
The Nifty (5796.90) had recovered a bit yesterday. It can rise further today based on the rise in global equities. A sensible Budget will help.
Apologies, we could not cover Commodities today.
Good recovery in the Euro (1.3145), trading above the crucial 1.3110 level. The rally in the Dow yesterday and the better than expected EU Business Climate have helped. The Italian 10-Yr (4.81%) also dipped a bit, helping the Euro. Still, there is Resistance in the 1.3200-50 region, which needs to be broken for fresh bullishness.
Dollar-Yen (92.38) rose well in the US session yesterday. The 91.80-00 region is a good Support now and the pair can rise going forward. The Euro-Yen Cross (121.39) also rose strongly and has good Support at 119.35 now.
The Pound (1.5176) recovered further as the UK GDP did not deteriorate further. A test of 1.5200-50 may be possible on further short-covering. Dollar-Swiss (0.9290) has dipped alongwith the rise in the Euro, but has Support near 0.9275. The Aussie (1.0280) has shot up strongly yesterday, not falling to 1.0130.
Dollar-Rupee has just opened lower near 53.65/66.
Apologies, we could not cover Bonds today.
0:01 GMT or 6:31 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -26 ...Previous -26
5:45 GMT or 12:15 IST CH GDP
4:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN GDP
10:00 GMT or 16:30 IST EU CPI (YoY)
...Expected 2.00 % ... Previous 2.22 %
12:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous -0.1 %
23:15 GMT or 5:45 IST JP PMI
...Actual -0.30 % ...Previous -0.30 %
EU Biz Climate
...Actual 91.10 ...Previous 89.50
US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual -5.15 % ...Previous 3.72 %
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