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Friday U.S. sequester day? ADB Chief Kuroda next BOJ Governor. Italian leadership crisis drags on
|Friday U.S. sequester day? ADB Chief Kuroda next BOJ Governor. Italian leadership crisis drags on|
1 March 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: JP- Unemploy, CPI, CN- PMI's. Europe: DE- Retail Sales, CH- PMI. EZ- Mfg PMI, flash HICP (CPI) GB- PMI. North America: CA- GDP, US- Pers Income, PCE Deflator, Markit PMI, University of Michigan Survey, ISM PMI, Construction Spending, COT Report
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- PMIs, JP- CPI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- final mfg PMi, flash HICP, GB mfg PMI, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Markit PMI, University of Michigan, ISM PMI
- Data from the U.S. Thursday were mixed, although tradres tended to focuson the disappointing modest upward revision to 4Q12 U.S. GDP.
- U.S. budget sequester is scheduled to come into effect on Friday, This is more theater than something catastrophic. Both sides are hoping to use it to their political advantage. Most citizens will not even be aware of the shut down, although the administration will be trying to create as much disruption as it can to make political gains. A last minute face-saving compromise is always possible. If necessary, Obama would until midnight on Friday to put the sequester into effect.
- Japanese Prime Minister Abe formally nominated former FinMin Kuroda to be the next BOJ Governor and Iwata and Nakaso to be deputy governors. No surprises and this suggests that Aso's pro-growth agenda and weaker JPY policy be the main agenda of the new leadership of the BOJ. "independent" central bank. Parliamentary approval of the candidates is asured.
- JPY devaluation efforts not have ended, although they might have paused for a short while.
- Italian political uncertainty persists, and is unlikely to be resolved immediately as the various parties jockey for position amid effort to form a new government.
USDJPY 20-day average is 93.09. EURJPY 20-day average is 124.18. 10-yr JGB: 0.66%, -1bp. Key Far East bourses: HIGHER.
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3338.10-yr bund is 1.45%, 0bp. European bourses: HIGHER
U.S. 10-yr 1.89%, -1bp. U.S. shares: HIGHER.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
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