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Busy week in store as central banks meet. End of week sees critical monthly U.S. employment data
|Busy week in store as central banks meet. End of week sees critical monthly U.S. employment data.|
4 March 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: No Major Data. Europe: EZ- PPI. North America: No Major Data
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: No Major Data
- The outcome of national elections in Italy two weeks ago have raised fresh questions about the Euro experiment. It had been expected the parties who support Italian austerity would come to power, however voters sent the message that they are unhappy with the current austerity program that is in place. The fear is that voters in other countries under onerous austerity regimes will act in a similar manner and that one (or more) could eventually decide that the common currency experiment is not workable. Portugal saw large anti-austerity damonstrations this weekwns. Also a major fund manager has taken the unprecedented step of reclassifying Greece as an "emerging" market from a "developed" one.
- "Currency Wars" are certainly not over as Japanese PM Abe nominated former FinMin Kuroda to be the new BOJ Governor at the end of March. Kuroda and two new Deputy Governors are strongly supportive of PM Abe's program to reflate the economy through
additional Quantitative Ease and by weakening the JPY even further.
- Tokyo tends to think primarily in terms of the USDJPY and some are now talking about an eventual target of USDJPY 100-110 or even higher following the current pause.
- The week ahead sses central bank meetings for the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the European Central Bank. We favor additional ease. from the ECB and BOE. The BOJ is expected to keep policy on hold while its leadership is in transition.
- As we indicated last week, the U.S. budget sequester last Friday was a non-event. THe key data is now March 27 when the government's current funding authority runs out.
USDJPY 20-day average is 93.12. EURJPY 20-day average is 123.93. 10-yr JGB: 0.66%, 0bp. Key Far East bourses: MIXED.
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3307.10-yr bund is 1.43%, -2bp. European bourses: MIXED.
U.S. 10-yr 1.86%, -3bp. U.S. shares: UP.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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