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Tuesday March 5, 2013 - 03:38:36 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 05-Mar-2013 -0336 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Dow Jones (14127.82, +0.27%) ended slightly higher; it still is at the resistance near 14150 on the monthly charts. We would like to see a strong/confirm break to become bullish. We need to wait and watch for some time.

A-Pac is trading in the green with Australia (5099.70, +1.42%), Hang Seng (22569.32, +0.14%) and Taiwan (7906, +0.50%)

Shanghai (2290.33, +0.74%) is trading higher after a bad day yesterday. Further lower levels of 2200 cannot be ruled out in the index. It is experiencing some correction. China aims at 7.5% growth in 2013 with increased fiscal spending.

Nikkei (11739.12, +0.75%) is trading higher with trend support near 11500 levels a further rise towards 12000 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Nifty (5698.50, -0.37%) was lower yesterday but recovered from its lows. Some short covering can be seen towards 5750-800 in the markets now. The bigger trend still seems bearish.


COMMODITIES
Oil and Gold can see some short covering. Silver has over head resistance while Copper is at the support.

Nymex Crude (90.43, +0.34%) seems to have taken support near 90-89. Some short covering towards 92-93 cannot be ruled out where it is likely to find sellers again.

Brent (110.58, +0.45%) is also at the support and can see a small bounce/short covering. We need to see how far it will go. A break below 110-09 will be very bearish for a further fall towards 105.00.

Gold (1577, +0.29%) is under pressure but a small bounce towards 1585-1600 cannot be ruled out. The trend has been bearish for Gold and a further fall towards 1545 can be seen post the short covering rally.

Silver (28.65, +0.54%) is slightly higher today but the trend is down and a further down side towards 26.50 can be seen. Resistance is seen near 29.00 on the weekly charts.

Copper (3.52, +0.69%) is just above its 3.50 support on the weekly charts. A break will take it lower towards 3.30. An initial bounce from 3.50 cannot be ruled out.


CURRENCIES
Relatively good bounces have been seen in the Aussie (1.0199) and the Pound (1.5121) yesterday. The Aussie bounced from trendline Support on the Monthly chart. The Pound has bounced, perhaps on short-covering before the BOE Meeting on Thursday. There is hope for some more QE in the UK given that economic data has been bad. Both currencies can rise a bit more to test Resistances near 1.0250 and 1.5150 respectively. A rise past 1.5150 could be quite bullish for the Pound.

The Euro (1.3027) has also managed to climb back above 1.30, but faces an important Resistance at 1.3050. The EU Retail Sales data will be important today. An improvement there, after continuous fall over the last several months, would be welcomed by all. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euretail.shtml

Dollar-Yen (93.35) was relatively quiet yesterday and we expect to see sideways consolidation between 92-94 for the next several days. A small upward bias may be there immediately. The Euro-Yen (121.62) was also quiet. There are equal chances of a fresh rise towards 123.40 as of a fall towards 120.40. Perhaps today's EU Retail Sales data will move the market.

The USD-SGD (1.2445) has come off a bit from yesterday's high near 1.2486 but could move up further while above 1.2400. The USD-BRL (1.9790) trades below the important 8-week MA at 1.9900.

All the above put together suggests that Dollar-Rupee (54.8650) could dip towards 54.60 today.


INTEREST RATES
The Italian 10-Yr (4.88%) has moved up further, but the Spain 10-Yr (5.09%) has dipped a bit. So it seems that the markets are making a distinction between the two countries.

The Spain-Germany 10-Yr (3.67%) has been coming off from the the high of 3.92% seen on 26-Feb and has chances of dipping further towards 3.50%. That should be good for the Euro, as it is a little too Oversold compared to the Spain-Germany Spread.

The Australian rate decision is due at 9.00 AM today. The current rate is 3% and the market does not expect any change. The Bank of Canada meeting is due tomorrow, with rates expected to be unchanged at 1.0%. The important BOE and ECB meetings are on Thursday. There is some talk of QE by the BOE and a signal for a rate cut by the ECB.

The US 10-Yr (1.87%) has moved up 2bp from 1.85% earlier, while the 30-Yr (3.09%) has moved up 4 bp. The Yield Curve is steeper, as expected, and could steepen a little more in coming days.

In India, the 3-mth Mibor (9.36%) has risen strongly over the last few weeks. However, the 3-mth MIFOR (8.04%) is dipping a bit, down from levels near 8.4% earlier.


DATA TODAY
2:30 or 9:00 RBA Meeting
...Expected 3.00 % ...Previous 3.00%

9:00 or 15:30 EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.30% ...Previous -0.82 %


DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

 

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