Friday July 15, 2005 - 00:53:01 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 15th July 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2931 ... 1.2964 ... 1.2986 ... 1.3000
Support....: 1.2868 ... 1.2840 ... 1.2810 ... 1.2786
We feel that we should see direct losses with only minor risk of a spike to 1.2964 before lower
Sideways trading seen yesterday holding below our 1.2931 resistance. Indeed we prefer a more bearish stance today. However, until 1.2855-68 is broken we do see a small risk of an additional rally. For this we shall need a break above 1.2923-31 which would then produce a move to 1.2964 which we feel should hold. Thus only above this resistance would trigger follow-through to 1.3000-05 at least where a pullback is possible. Further resistance is at 1.3043-75.
We prefer a bearish stance today but require a break below the 1.2853-68 region first. Once seen we will look for losses to extend down to 1.2808-14 where a small correction is possible. Next support is between 1.2753-86.
Elliott Wave Comments:
14th July 2005
Back to the drawing board with the recovery much deeper than expected. The thing that concerns us here is that the 1.3075 high appears to be a daily Wave (iii) with Wave (ii) being at 1.1476. A 23.6% retracement implies support at 1.2698 from where we saw a recovery yesterday. In the Swissie this ratio does occur from time to time but we feel the pullback just isn't long enough on a time basis and thus we feel a more complex correction is likely.
Is the current pullback merely a Wave x? Or is it part of a triangle sideways pattern that will extend the time line of the retracement a bit longer? Well, we often see a pullback of 76.4% in the Swissie in a triangle and this lies at 1.2986. Thus only above here suggests a move to 1.3075 once again (in a possible flat?) However, as is quite clear, we need see a little more price development to try and judge the structure better.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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