Wednesday March 6, 2013 - 19:34:42 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Thursday 7 March 2013
Global market sentiment: The S&P500 initially rose to a fresh five-year high but then fell 0.5% to be unchanged currently. A strong private sector (ADP) payrolls report, used by some for guidance on the broader payrolls report which is released this Friday, was the main positive catalyst. Commodities were generally weaker, though, the CRB index down 0.7%%, Brent oil -1.0%, copper -0.6% but iron ore up 0.4%. Canada’s central bank softened its tightening bias even further, cited by some as a catalyst for the risk averse turn. The Beige Book of US regional economic conditions, just released, reiterated modest to moderate growth.
Interest rates: US 10yr treasury yields rose from 1.90% to 1.94% before consolidating, the 2-10yr curve steepening from 166bp to 169bp. Eurozone peripheral yields continued to slip, Italy’s 10yr down 8bp. Australian 3yr bond yields found an overnight base at 2.83%, peaking at 2.87% following the ADP release.
Currencies: Risky currencies weakened. The US dollar index (DXY) is around 0.5% higher. EUR fell early London from 1.3080 to 1.2983. USD/JPY rose from 93.20 to 93.93. AUD could not regain its Sydney afternoon peak of 1.0302, falling to 1.0233. The ADP report provided only brief support. NZD did spike higher on the ADP, to 0.8350, but then fell to 0.8276. AUD/NZD continued to consolidate between 1.2310 and 1.2370.
US ADP private payrolls rose 198k in Feb, with Jan revised up by 23k to 215k. On this measure jobs growth has slowed since Nov’s 276k gain, indeed a year ago ADP recorded four straight gains of 255k to 294k between Nov-Feb, so the jobs profile is not as buoyant as it was back then, and of course later in 2012 ADP was regularly printing gains below 100k. These swings from turn of year strength to mid year weakness then back again are probably related to distorted seasonal factors. ADP averaged 151k monthly gains over the latest year (to Feb); BLS private payrolls averaged 166k in the 11 months to Jan 2013 so a soft Feb BLS result could help bring these two measures of the same thing more into line; one reason (of a few) we won’t revise our 130k payrolls forecast.
US factory goods orders fell 2% in Jan, with the previously reported 4.9% fall in durables (mostly due to aircraft) partially offset by a 0.6% rise in non-durables. Factory inventories rose 0.5% in Jan.
Bank of Canada on hold at 1.0%. The statement advised that “the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required”., That replaced January’s “While some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time... the timing of any such withdrawal is less imminent than previously anticipated.”
Canadian Ivey PMI fell from 58.9 to 51.1 in Feb, its fifth lowest reading since the recession ended in 2009.
Euroland GDP growth confirmed at –0.6% in Q4; revised data now make it clear the recession is five quarters long, with Q1 2012 now rounding to –0.1% rather than up to flat as was previously the case (masking the harsh reality for some). Household consumption fell 0.4% in Q4 indeed its has fallen every quarter for two years except Q3 2011.
UK house prices rose 0.5% in Feb to be up 1.9% yr according to the Halifax. The BRC reported shop prices accelerated from 0.6% yr to 1.1% yr in Feb.
Event risk today: NZ has Q4 wholesale trade and QV house prices (neither are market movers), while Australia releases January’s trade balance. The BOJ meeting shouldn’t produce any fireworks, being the Governor’s last. More important will be tonight’s ECB announcement and press conference, the market looking for a dovish signal from Draghi. The BOE meeting, on the other hand, should be uneventful
NZD/USD 1 day: 0.8340 should provide a cap today, 0.8280 vulnerable.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The positive trend since May has been broken and we now target around 0.8100 during the month ahead. Our view of a fresh high later in 2013 remains intact though.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening today unchanged at 2.99%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: Following this downward correction, which could yet extend to the 2.80%-2.90% area, a rise above 3.20% should ensue.
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0290 should provide a cap today, 1.0200 vulnerable.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle, which should see it reach at least 1.0100 before an eventual break above 1.0600.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 7 March 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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