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Thursday March 7, 2013 - 11:03:43 GMT
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The EUR/USD drifted higher during the European morning above the 1.30 handle ahead of the ECB rate decision. The pair failed to move below the March lows of 1.2963 in Asia as participants failed to el EU Market Update: Spanish auction results seen as solid; Markets eye key rate decisions from BOE and ECB
Thu, 07 Mar 2013 5:33 AM EST

- Fed's Beige Book reports "restrained hiring" amid modest growth
- U.K. Cameron: We Will Stick to Economic Plan
- U.K.'s Cable raises question of increasing government borrowing
- Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged (as expected; Shirakawa era ends.
- Australia Jan Trade Balance comes in as a bigger deficit than expected
- S&P revised Portugal Sovereign Outlook higher to stable from negative
Rating agency DBRS lowers Italy sovereign rating one notch to "A low" from "A"; affirms negative outlook
- S&P cuts ratings of Spain's Valencia Region one notch to BB- from BB; placed ratings on watch negative
- Greece PM Samaras meeting with troika this week has been moved to next week, with many issues remaining unresolved between the parties
- France Q1 ILO Unemployment Rate hits 13-year high at 10.6%
- Swiss Feb Unemployment in kline with expectations and steady from month-ago levels
- Greece Dec Unemployment Rate improves to 26.4%
- Spain bond auction results solid with higher bid-to-covers; lower yields and selling just above the top end of range
- France bond auction results mixed

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank leaves Reference Rate unchanged at 5.75%; as expected

- (ZA) South Africa Feb Gross Reserves: $50.4B v $50.5Be; Net Reserves: $47.2B v 47.5Be
- (FR) France Q4 ILO Unemployment Rate: 10.6% v 10.5%e; Mainland Unemployment Rate: 10.2% v 10.1%e; Mainland Unemployment Change: +124K v +29K prior
- (CH) Swiss Feb Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.4%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.1% v 3.1%e
- (FR) France Jan Trade Balance: - v -4.8Be

- (CH) Swiss Feb Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 427.0B v 427.0Be
- (DK) Denmark Jan Industrial Production M/M: +7.2% v -3.8% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: % v -14.4% prior
- (HU) Hungary Jan Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +2.9% v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.0%
- (TW) Taiwan Feb Total Trade Balance: $0.9B v $2.1Be; Total Exports Y/Y: -15.8% v -8.1%e; Total Imports Y/Y: -8.5% v -7.3%e
- (HU) Hungary Feb FX Reserves: 35.9B v 34.4B prior
- (EU) ECB: 48M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 3.5B prior; 139.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 146.7B prior - (AT) Austria Jan Producer Price Index M/M: +0.1% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb Average House Prices (SEK): 2.023M v 2.197M prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb Budget Balance (SEK): +15.6B v -96.3B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Feb CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.9%e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Foreign Currency Reserves: $304.8B v $321.0B
- (NO) Norway Jan Industrial Production M/M: -4.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -7.5% v 1.2% prior
- (NO) Norway Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.9% prior
- (NO) Norway Jan Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.4%e
- (IT) Italy Jan PPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 2.4% prior
- (SG) Singapore Feb Foreign Reserves: $259.2B v $258.8B prior
- (MA) Malaysia Feb Foreign Reserves: $140.3B v $140.3B prior
- (CZ) Czech Feb International Reserves: $ 45.4Bv $45.8B prior
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Feb Food Price Index: 210 v 210 prior
- (RU) Russia Feb Official Reserve Assets: $526.2B v $532.2B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Feb SACCI Business Confidence: 93.0 v 94.0 prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Mar 1st: $523.4B v $524.0B prior
- (MA) Malaysia Central Bank leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%, as expected
- (GR) Greece Dec Unemployment Rate: 26.4% v 26.6% prior

- (IT) Bank of Italy Feb Balance-Sheet: ECB funding to Italian banks at 281.0B v 279.3B prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.03B vs. 4.0-5.0B indicated range in 2015, 2018 and 2023 Bonds

- Sold 569M in 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 2.632% v 2.713% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.9x v 2.02x prior; Maximum Yield 2.68% v 2.770%; Tail 4.8bps v 5.7bps prior
- Sold 2.03B in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 3.572% v 4.123% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 2.24x prior; Maximum Yield 3.612% v 4.169%; Tail 4.0bps v 4.6bps prior
- Sold 2.435B in 5.4% 2023 bonds; Avg Yield 4.917% v 5.202% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 1.6x prior; Max Yield 4.957% v 5.222% prior; Tails 4.0bps v 2.0bps
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFTsold total 7.48B vs. 6.5-7.5B indicated range in 2018, 2022 and 2027 Oats
- Sold 2.354B in 4.25% Oct 2018 Oats, Avg Yield 1.02% v 1.01% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.44x v 3.38x prior
- Sells 3.495B in 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT; Avg Yield 2.10% v 2.30% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.20x v 3.09x prior
- Sells 1.635B in 2.75% 2027 Oats; Avg Yield 2.71% v 2.85% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.52x v 1.79x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF59.0B in 2016, 2018, and 2023 Bonds


- Indices: FTSE 100 +0.40% at 6,455,
DAX +0.40% at 7,948, CAC-40 +0.70% at 3,798, IBEX-35 +0.80% at 8,427, FTSEMIB +0.60% at 15,995, SMI +0.20% at 7,715, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,542

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher. Spain's IBEX-35 has outperformed, as the country sold bonds. Banks are once again mixed on today's session. Underperformers include Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Lloyds and SocGen. Resource related firms are broadly higher, in line with the slight rebound in copper prices. Overall traders are focusing on today's central bank meetings (ECB and BOE) and Friday's US payrolls report.

- UK movers [IMI +6% (stock buyback), Aggreko +8.5% (positive on early 2013 trading); Aviva -14% (cut dividend), National Express -11% (share placement), Avocet Mining -3.5% (FY gold production -19% y/y), Inmarsat -2.5% (FY profits declined y/y), Balfour Beatty -2.5% (FY profits below ests)]
- Germany movers [Continental +3.8% (net debt below target, raised dividend), Adidas +2.5% (Q4 margins rose y/y), Merck +2.5% (Q4 results above ests), Porsche +2.5% (favorable court ruling), HannoverRe +2% (Q4 profits above ests), SAP +0.50% (broker commentary); Linde -1% (FY12 sales slightly below ests), Daimler -0.70% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Carrefour +5% (FY12 profits above ests), JC Decaux -5% (cautious on Q1), SocGen -0.70% (US money transfer probe)]
- Belgium movers [Delhaize -1.5% (cut dividend)]
- Italy moves [Geox -5% (FY profits declined y/y)]

- France Fin Min Moscovici commented that Euro growth outlook was very worrying and must react if new EMU recession occurred.
Needed to balance between austerity and growth policies. He noted that the existential crisis was over, but Euro zone problems remained
- Hungary Govt said to seek to convert FX mortgages into HUF currency (forint). The central bank would use FX Reserves for mortgage plan but would be unlikely before summer
- Former Italy PM Berlusconi said to be acquitted in Mediatrade case by Italy Supreme Court
- Sweden Central Banker (Riksbank)Gov Ingves commented that Interest rates likely to be unchanged in 2013 and saw inflation heading gradually towards 2% target. He reiterated his view that SEK currency (Krona) was about where it should be
- Germany VCI Chemical Group: Reaffirmed 2013 outlook for industrial sales growth of 2%
- Norway SSB Economic forecasts: cuts 2013, 2014 and 2015 GDP growth outlook
-BoJ Gov Shirakawa held his last post rate decision press conference and noted that the BOJ would pursue an aggressive monetary easing and would make utmost effort to achieve 2% inflation target but wider range of efforts were needed. Japan was moving in the right direction but uncertainty remained. Member Shiai proposal was to further strengthen BOJ's monetary policy to achieve price target. He expected a weak Yen would improve corporate and household sentiment but added cost push inflation caused by a weak Yen was not desirable. He cautioned that JGB yields could rise once central bank bond buying was viewed as final. QE has helped in the past to stabilize the financial system
- BOJ Deputy Gov Nishimura: Central bank would suffer 2.3T of unrealized losses if long-term rates rose by 1%
- Japan opposition leader Kaida (DPJ): Monetary easing has its side effects
- Former PBoC advisor Li Daokui commented that China should keep flexible monetary policy. He added that China was very concerned on Japan's monetary easing as it could hurt the yen international status but could also ease the country's deflation pressures
- Former PBoC Advisor Yu Yongding commented that the need to increase the flexibility of yuan currency and increase its trading band. He added that the Yuan would see bigger fluctuations in 2013
- China PBoC Dep Gov Yi Gang: CNY-Cross border flows are totally controllable
- China PBoC Nanjing branch manager Zhou Xuedong: Devaluation of JPY currency might impact China's exports and bring imported pressure
- India official commented that BRICS nations would likely to offer up to 45% stake in proposed development bank to non-members and likely to offer stake to US, UK and others. The BRICS Durban meeting might resolve funding voting rights
- North Korea to exercise right to preemptive nuclear attack to defend itself

- The EUR/USD drifted higher during the European morning above the 1.30 handle ahead of the ECB rate decision. The pair failed to move below the March lows of 1.2963 in Asia as participants failed to elect the large amount of Euro sell-stops lurking below. The EUR/USD further solidified a floor following a solid Spanish auction result.
- Dealers did not expect any change in rates form the ECB today, though some speculate on the possibility of a rate cut. Overall dealers believed that It seems hard to justify a cut when the EUR was down 2% from its level at the last meeting. There has also been a modest easing in short term EUR rates since the Feb meeting.
- The GBP was slightly lower ahead of the BOE rate decision. Dealers saw about a 30% that the BOE might again increase its asset purchase target (following the surprise 6-3 vote in the Feb minutes).
- USD/JPY continued to consolidated just of trend highs in a modest range centered just above the 94.00 handle. Outgoing BOJ Gov Shirakawa ended with no policy changes as expected. The next Governor (Kuroda) is expected to be approved next week.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Debt officials in France and Italy have raised concerns about the Tobin Tax - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- (EU) S&P: Euro Zone recession to end by end of year
-(GR) Greece PM Samaras meeting with troika this week has been moved to next week, with many issues remaining unresolved between the parties - ekathimerini
- (IT) Italy's Bersani: The PD Party has full confidence in Italy President Napolitano, debate today with other party members has been fruitful
-(IT) Italy PM Monti: Declines to comment on extension of his govt; leaders should let President evaluate the situation; New elections would be better than a govt that halted reforms
-Banca Monte Paschi [BMPS.IT]: Communications Chief David Rossi said to have committed suicide, dies falling from a window of the bank headquarters - Italian press
-(UK) PM Cameron is expected to say later today that the UK economy is "turning the corner" - Telegraph
-(UK) UK British Chambers of Commerce (BCC): Cuts 2013 GDP forecast to 0.6% from 1.0% prior in Dec; Sees BoE to expand QE by 50B in H1; Sees BoE key rate to remain unchanged at 0.5% until Q4 2014.
- (CN) For the week, the PBoC to drain a net of CNY5B from the financial system by selling 28-day repos at 2.75%
-(CN) China People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) Delegate Li Yining: Does not support an excessively loose policy - press
- BOJ: Keeps asset purchase program at 101T (no new easing); Upgrades economic assessment for 3rd consecutive meeting; Board member Shirai makes new proposal to begin its open-ended program immediately vs Jan 2014; proposal voted down 8-to-1; Board Member Miyao again voted in favor to continue with virtually zero interest rate policy until 2% y/y CPI is in sight; Also voted down 8

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Former Italy PM Berlusconi Wiretapping Case Sentencing
- (DE) ECB member Asmussen (Germany)
- (EG) Egypt Feb Net Reserves: No est v $13.6B prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Jan Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -3.8% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -2.8% prior
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Jan Factory Orders M/M: 0.6%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: +1.6%e v -1.8% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Industrial Production M/M: No est v 8.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior
- 06:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel hosts energy talks in Berlin
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Up to CZK9.0B in 6-month Bills
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 06:15 (IE)) Ireland PM Kenny speaks at Lisbon Council in Brussels
- 06:30 (NL) Netherlands Fin Min in debate with students UVA
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Feb Trade Balance: $500.0Me v $244.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $.6B prior; Total Imports: No est $6.7B prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Feb Copper Exports: No est v $3.5b prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Bank Of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Industrial Production M/M: 1.6%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: +4.6%e v -3.6% prior
- 07:30 (US) Feb Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 40.4K prior;Y/Y: No est v -24.4% prior
- 07:30 (US) Mar RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 49.5 prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Main 7-day Refi rate unchanged at 0.75%; expected to leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%
- 08:00 (SE) Sweden Fin Min Borg in Parliament
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Feb Total Official Reserves: No est v $108.0B prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Trade Balance: -$42.6Be v -$38.5B prior
-08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 355Ke v 344K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.120Me v 3.074M prior
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Final Nonfarm Productivity"-1.6%e v -2.0% prelim; Unit Labor Costs: 4.3%e v 4.5% prelim
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Building Permits M/M: +5.3%e v -11.2% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$0.6Be v -C$0.9B prior
- 08:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi holds post rate decision press conferenc
- 08:30 (US) Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Consumer Prices M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.3% prior; Core CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 09:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- 10:00 Fed's Powell on bank secrecy act
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Feb YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -2.5B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury refunding announcement
- 11:00 (US) fed to buy $3.00-3.75B in notes
- 12:00 (US) Q4 Net House Hold change: No est v $1.722T prior
- 15:00 (US) Jan Consumer Credit: $14.7Be v $14.6B prior
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Q4 Final GDP Annualized: -0.3%e v -0.4% prelim
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Jan Trade and Current Account balances




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