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Friday March 8, 2013 - 10:56:41 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk appetite holds firm into US payroll data

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk appetite holds firm into US payroll data
Fri, 08 Mar 2013 5:34 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China Feb trade balance showed unexpected surplus at $15.3B -$6.9Be; Exports rose more than expected (21.8% v 8.1%e) while imports fell by more (-15.2% v-8.5%e)
- Japan final Q4 GDP unrevised at +0.2% annualised
- Japan Jan Current Account deficit smaller than expect at -365B vs -612Be
- Fed Stress Tests showed 17 of 18 banks passed stress test; Ally Financial failed as tier 1 cap ratio fell below 5% (at 1.5%)
- French indicators point to Q1 growth of 0.1%
- Swiss Feb CPI fell -0.3% y/y, the same as in January as country remains mired in deflation.
- Primary focus today is the release of February US jobs data; "whisper number" looking for a gain around +200K.


***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Jan Industrial Production M/M: -3.6 v +1.6% prior; Y/Y: -4.8% v -1.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb PES Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 4.8%e
- (FR) Bank of France Feb Business Sentiment: 96 v 96e
- (FR) France Jan Central Govt. Balance: -12.8B v -87.2B prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -3.6% v -8.5% prior; Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -5.0% v -6.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.9 v -0.9% prelim; Y/Y: -2.7 v -2.7% prelim
- (TR) Turkey Jan Industrial Production WDA M/M: +2.3 v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: +1.9 v -1.8% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.6%e
- (CZ) Czech Feb Share of Unemployed 15-64 Age Group: 8.1% v 8.1%e
- (CZ) Czech Jan Trade Balance (CZK): 31.5B v 29.6Be
- (AT) Austria Q4 Final WIFO GDP: 0.1% v % prior
- (EU) ECB: 206M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 48M prior; 129.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 139.4B prior
- (CH) Swiss Feb CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (CH) Swiss Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.3% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Industrial Orders M/M: -3.1% v 7.7% prior; Y/Y: -5.4% v -2.8% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Industrial Production M/M: -2.0% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -7.8% v -4.8%e
- (CZ) Czech Q4 Current Account: -1.4B v -1.7Be
- (IC) Iceland Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 4.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 2.2% prior
- (UK) Feb BOE/GFK Inflation Next 12-month: 3.6% v 3.5% prior
- (UK) Jan Construction Output M/M: -6.3%; Y/Y: -7.9%
- (GR) Greece Feb CPI Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2022, 2025 and 2050 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,458,
DAX +0.50% at 7,982, CAC-40 +0.70% at 3,820, IBEX-35 +1.2% at 8,493, FTSE MIB +0.90% at 16,085, SMI +0.40% at 7,739, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,542

- European equity indices are broadly higher, ahead of the release of the US monthly payrolls report. Today's gains have been led by the Spanish IBEX-35 and Italian FTSE MIB. Earlier during the session, Germany's DAX tested the 8,000 level for the first time since early 2008 (In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 also traded at levels not seen since 2008). European banks are broadly higher, led by shares of BNP, Credit Suisse, HSBC and Unicredit. Resource-related companies are mostly lower, tracking the weakness in copper prices.

- UK movers [Centrica -1.5% (broker commentary),Marks & Spencer -0.70% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Hochtief +4% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Lagardere +3.5% (planning to sell EADS stake), Veolia Environmental +1% (asset sale)]
- Spain movers [Vueling +4.5% (rejected IAG's offer),Telefonica +1.7% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Saipem +2% (Eni is not seeking to spin-off stake in company)]
- Switzerland movers [Gate Group +5% (contract award), Credit Suisse +2% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [Fugro +10% (FY results above ests, raised dividend)]
- Belgium movers [Galapagos -6% (FY loss wider than ests)]

Speakers:
- ECB members Praet
(Belgium) commented that the role of the taxpayer in bank bailouts needed to be talked about as it was currently unclear. The SSM was very crucial
- Ireland Deputy PM Gilmore noted that he discussed with IMF about measures to exit bailout conditions and saw challenges to secure smooth bailout exit. Second bailout was no longer in question
- IMF's Lagarde noted that Ireland had set the standard for bailout countries and added that more work needed to be done on the Irish banking sector, 2/3 of the work was done, IMF would remain on call for Ireland
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Talks on bailout exit going well
- France PM Ayrault confirmed the need to find 5.0B in new savings in 2014 and to be accomplished through spending cuts. Savings will exclude measures linked to jobs and to come from ambitious structural reforms for each ministry
- Bank of Italy Visco commented that financial stability was now a fundamental policy goal in which central banks played crucial role
- Goldman senior strategist Jim O'Neil believed Italy did not need more austerity measures but should to implement reform. He noted that the UK looked similar to weaker EU countries
- Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund 2012 overall return was 13.4%. Continued to reduce its exposure to Europe as it cut its holdings in Europe to 48% from 53% y/y. The fund reduced government debt holdings in Britain and France; purchased Japanese, Mexican, Italian and German bonds
- Norway Central Bank survey: Sees estimated annual wage growth of 4% in 2013
- South Africa Central Bank Gov Marcus commented that 2013 GDP growth was seen around 2.6% as labor market issues had impacted economic growth. She did note that global economy was recovering slowly. Weaker ZAR currency weakness was overdone and could impact inflation (**Note rand is at 4-year lows). CPI could breach target temporarily and was concerned at outlook for commodities
- Japan Vice Fin Min Nakao commented that there was limited emerging market impact from advanced nation easing and that capital flow to developing nation from monetary easing was good. He also reiterated that Japan policies have domestic goal of beating deflation
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga reiterated that excessive JPY currency strength was correcting and expected corporate profits to beat forecasts
- Japan Fin Min Aso said to hold phone conversation with US Treasury Sec Lew on Friday
- RBA Gov Stevens to seek a second term (**Note: scheduled to end in Sept)
- India PM Singh: To use all policy steps to increase economic growth to 7-8% over the next few years
- PBoC expanded its currency swap agreement with Singapore to CNY300B from CNY150B prior
- China MOF official Miao: Govt looking to strengthen debt management; Will try to introduce amended policy in H1 for non plug in hybrid subsidies

Currencies:
- Risk on as equity markets rallied Friday due to China's stronger-than-expected export data. The EUR/USD hovered under the 1.31 handle in the session but dealers felt that the market was still likely caught short the Euro in the aftermath of the ECB press conference and good chance it gets cleansed a little further.
- The Yen was at its weakest level against the USD since Aug 2009; pair traded above 95.50. Dealers noted that the Japanese currency now tends to correlate inversely with risk-on lsentiment
- The GBP currency was steady despite commentary from Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem that a "a new sterling crisis could happen again" due to the state of public finances in a recent speech. Dealers noted that recent weakness in the GBP over the past few weeks was probably already driven by such sentiment
- All on now on the monthly US jobs report. the initial jobless claims data of the past two weeks strongly suggest that labor market conditions have improved further at the end of the winter
Political/In the Papers:
-(BE) Belgium govt looking to find 2.8B in savings otherwise they will need to implement new/higher taxes to reach deficit target set by EU this year - De Tijd
-(EU) Some analysts believe that deflation is a risk for the euro zone - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Note: On Thursday's session, Draghi downplayed deflation concerns.
-(CY) Euro zone officials calling on Cyprus to introduce a capital gains tax and a financial transactions tax as well as requesting a raise in the corp tax rate by 2.5pts to 12.5% - financial press; Noting Russia would consider taking part in bailout if it had similar status as euro zone lenders; Holding talks with Russia to buy Cyprus popular bank.
-(PT) Portugal construction companies can now borrow directly from the govt, as Portugal reserves 200M in a credit facility- Economico
-(CN) Shanghai Daily citing analysts suggesting PBoC may have to suspend easy policies or even tighten later this month if CPI in Jan-Feb period expected this weekend rises above expectations

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes
- 06:00 (EU) ECB members Praet and Coene speak at Conference in Brussels
- 06:00 (CL) Chile Feb CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.6% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Feb FGV Preview Inflation IGP-M: No est v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Jan Industrial Production M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.2%e v -1.1% prior
- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell Bonds (OLO ORI)
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly repayment in 3-Year LTRO Tender
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 4.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Mar 8th: No est v $291.9B prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Feb IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.5%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 6.2%e v 6.2% prior
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Feb Housing Starts: 175.0Ke v 160.6K prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +163Ke v +157K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +170Ke v +166K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +9Ke v +4K prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.9%e v 7.9% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 14.4% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +17K prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.4e v 34.4 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Net Change in Employment: +8.0Ke v -21.9K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.1%e v 7.0% prior;
Full Time Employment Change: No est v -20.6K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -1.4K prior; Participation Rate: 66.7%e v 66.6% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q4 Labor Productivity Q/Q: 0.0%e v -0.5% prior
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Jan CNI Capacity Utilization: 81.0%e v 80.9% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Gross Fixed Investment: -0.7%e v +5.4% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.50% **Note: 65 % chance of hold and 35% chance of a cut
- 10:00 (US) Jan Wholesale Inventories: +0.3%e v -0.1% prior
- 12:00 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
- 20:30 (CN) China Feb Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.0% prior; Producer Price Index Y/Y: -1.5%e v -1.6% prior

Weekend
Saturday
- 00:30 (CN) China Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.3%e v 10.3% prior; Industral Production YTD Y/Y: 10.6%e v 10.0% prior
- 00:30 (CN) China Feb Fixed Urban Assets: Y/Y: 20.7%e v 20.6% prior
- 00:30 (CN) China Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 15.2%e v 15.2% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 15.0%e v 14.3% prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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