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Market sentiment shifts after better-than-expected U.S. February jobs. Canada jobs also strong
|Market sentiment shifts after better-than-expected U.S. February jobs. Canada jobs also strong|
11 March 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: JP- Machinery Orders, Parliament vote on BOJ Governor. Europe: CH- Retail Sales. North America: No Major Data
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JA- Machinery Orders, Parliament Vote on BOJ Governors
- February U.S.Non-farm payrolls increased by an unexpectedly strong 236K. Street estimates had been for jobs to increase by 167K in the month. Other job measures recently have been pointing to an improving employment picture, but there still is a very long way to go.
- Forex markets appear to be in transition. If true, this transition could mean that prices could start to behave differently to news than they have has for a long time and could force a change in trading strategies for many.
- What we feel could be happening is that the USD may be starting to become an asset play again as the economy improves. If foreign funds start to flow more heavily into U.S. shares, then investors often have to buy their dollars first. Markets will quickly pick up on this and then the USD will start to react positively to strong U.S. data and negatively to weak data.
- The big loser in this scenario is likely to be the JPY which could see a resurgence of its traditional role as the funding currency for positions of all types. There is no doubt that the Bank of Japan is going to keep liquidity loose for the next several years and the JPY weak. These policies will support the JPY in its funding currency role.
- The second week of the month tends to be active for U.K. data, and the GBP could be undermined if U.K. economic reports come in weak.
- The next key U.S. budget date is March 27 when the government's current funding authority runs out.
USDJPY 20-day average is 93.26. EURJPY 20-day average is 123.24. 10-yr JGB: 0.65%, -3bp. Key Far East bourses: MIXED.
EURUSD 20-day average:1.3214.10-yr bund is 1.53%, +4bp. European bourses: HIGHER.
U.S. 10-yr 2.05%, +6bp. U.S. shares: HIGHER.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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