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Sunday March 10, 2013 - 19:26:57 GMT
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Forex - Morning Report

Morning Report Monday 11 March 2013



Market wrap
Global market sentiment: US markets were buoyed by a strong payrolls report. The outturn easily beat consensus, and included a fall in the unemployment rate from 7.9% to 7.7%, encouraging speculation the Fed may withdraw from its stimulus programs earlier than previously signalled. US equities pushed higher on the improvement to the economy, the Dow Jones index making a fresh all-time high and the S&P500 up 0.5% to a fresh five –year high. The CRB commodities index closed up 0.6%.

Interest rates: US interest rates rose after the US payrolls release, 10yr treasury yields gapping from 2.00% to 2.05% (an 11-month high) immediately and continuing to 2.08% before closing at 2.04%.The 2-10yr curve steepened from 175bp to 182bp - also an 11-month high. German yields followed US yields slightly higher, while Spain’s 10yr fell on the improved sentiment by 13bp to 4.75% - a 28-month low. Italian bonds were hurt by a Fitch rating downgrade from A- to BBB+. Australian 3yr bond yields rose from 2.92% to 3.00% (a 10-month high) and settled around 2.95%.

Currencies: The US dollar outperformed most currencies, the DXY index surging to a seven-month high after the US payrolls release. EUR conversely fell from 1.3134 to 1.2955, forming a technically bearish outside-down reversal. USD/JPY rose from 95.20 to 96.55 (a post-2009 high), closing at 96.00. Risky currencies suffered from USD strength, AUD falling from 1.0283 to 1.0211, and NZD falling from 0.8295 to 0.8188 (two-month low). AUD/NZD rose from 1.2385 to 1.2485. Speculative futures positioning showed AUD and NZD longs were reduced last week, while EUR, GBP and JPY shorts were increased

Economic wrap
US non-farm payrolls rose 236k in Feb, double the 119k Jan gain but still a little behind the 247k increase recorded in Nov and well down on the 311k increase in Jan last year. We continue to warn that flawed seasonal adjustment factors tend to boost jobs (and other indicators) around the turn of the year, before delivering softer outcomes around the middle of the year (as happened in 2010, 2011 and 2011. But as the data stand, they show a 3 month average jobs gain of 191k in Dec Feb, up from 181k in Sep-Nov; solid hours worked growth of 0.5%, which along with hourly earnings up 0.2% will support household income growth; and broadbased gains across construction, factories and all services sectors except government. The unemployment rate fell to a new post recession low of 7.7%, despite less impressive jobs growth of 170k in the separate household survey - the lower jobless rate was also due to 300k people without jobs leaving the workforce altogether. That survey shows jobs growth averaging just 72k in Dec-Feb, from 371k in the previous three months. US wholesale inventories jumped 1.2% in Jan, most of it durable goods, and the fastest rise in over a year.

Canadian employment rose 51k in Feb, more than recovering the 22k loss in Jan, for a 20k 3 month average jobs gain, down from 38k in the previous 3 month period. The jobless rate was unchanged at 7% in Feb, its post recession low. Meanwhile in Q4 labour productivity grew just 0.1% after a 0.4% fall in Q3 - these weak outcomes reflect strong hiring but weak GDP growth in H2 2012. Canadian housing starts rebounded 13.7% in Feb after a cumulative 30% fall in between Sep and Jan. The gain was driven by both single family and multiple housing.

German industrial production flat in Jan. IP fell each month from Aug to Nov, one of the drivers of the Q4 slump in GDP, but in Dec production rose 0.6% and it stabilised at that low level at the start of this year. Production was down –1.3% yr in Jan.

Event risk today: China’s batch of economic data released during the weekend (higher CPI, lower industrial production) should be bearish for risk sentiment today. NZ electronic spending is minor for markets.

NZD/USD 1 day: Friday’s break below (neckline) support at 0.8265 suggests 0.8188 below is vulnerable, 0.8155 the next downside target.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The positive trend since May has been broken and we now target around 0.8100 during the month ahead. Our view of a fresh high later in 2013 remains intact though.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening today up 2bp at 3.02%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: Following the current consolidation, which could yet extend lower to the 2.80%-2.90% area, a rise above 3.20% should ensue.
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0250 should cap the day, 1.0180 below the next target.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle, which should see it reach at least 1.0100 before an eventual break above 1.0600.




Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 11 March  2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



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