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Monday March 11, 2013 - 10:34:35 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Italy yields creep higher following Friday's sovereign downgrade

Mon, 11 Mar 2013 6:03 AM EST

- China data highlights policy dilemma with economic data soft while CPI heats up to a 10-month high: China Jan-Feb retail sales y/y came in at a multi-year low of 12.3% v 15.0%e. Industrial Production for the same period y/y was 9.9% v 10.6%e. China Feb CPI y/y came in hotter than expected at 3.2% v 3.0%e
- Fitch cut Italy's sovereign rating by one notch to BBB+ from A- citing economic outlook and the uncertain political situation; outlook negative (*Note: catches up to S&P and Moody's)
- German Jan Trade Balance in line with expectations with improvements in export/Import components
- France headline production data worse than expected but has decent upward back-month revisions
- Italy Q4 Final GDP YoY revised a touch worse to -2.8%

- US time moved ahead by one hour over the weekend. There is currently 4 hour difference between ET and GMT

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Feb Trade Balance: -$14.9B v -$20.0B prior; Imports Y/Y: 2.6% v 6.1% prior; Exports Y/Y: 4.3% v 0.8% prior

- (JP) Japan Feb Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -21.5% v -26.4% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan Current Account: 11.3B v 10.5Be; Trade Balance: 13.7B v 13.9Be; Imports M/M: 3.3% v 0.7%e; Exports M/M: 1.4% v 0.5%e
- (DE) Germany Q4 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9% prior
- (FI) Finland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance: -425M v -772M prior
- (FR) France Jan Industrial Production M/M: -1.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.5% v -2.7%e
- (FR) France Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -4.5% v -3.3%e

- (HU) Hungary Jan Preliminary Trade Balance: 317.9M v 384.0Me
- (CZ) Czech Feb CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e
- (CZ) Czech Q4 Avg Real Wage Y/Y: +0.9%% v -0.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.7%e
- (DK) Denmark Jan Current Account (DKK) 4.7B v 5.0Be; Trade Balance (ex shipping): 6.6B v 6.0Be
- (DK) Denmark Feb CPI M/M: % v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (DK) Denmark Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (EU) ECB: 15M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 206M prior; 134.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 129.1B prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.9% v 5.1% prior
- (IT) Italy Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.9% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.7%e
- (NO) Norway Feb CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (NO) Norway Feb CPI Underlying M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (NO) Norway Feb Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: 0.5% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.4% prior
- (GR) Greece Q4 Final GDP Y/Y: -5.7% v -6.0% prior

Fixed Income:
- (UK) BOE to sell $2.0B in 3-year bond; guidance seen 3bps below the mid-swap


Indices: FTSE 100 Index flat at 6,483
, DAX -0.3% at 7,965, CAC-40 -0.4% at 3,824, IBEX-35 -1.0% at 8,543, FTSE MIB -0.7% at 16,092, SMI -0.1% at 7,737, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,542

- European equity indices are slightly weaker after Fitch downgraded Italy's sovereign rating one notch to BBB+ on Friday. Softer Chinese data showing slower levels of lending and higher than expected CPI weighed on export names. Stoxx 600 came off 4.5-yr highs after being boosted by strong US payrolls Friday falling under 295 early in the day. OMX 20 Index was higher by 0.5%, CAC 40 fell 0.3% back to pre-payroll Friday levels, while Madrid General was -0.4%. DAX is led higher by Henkel, Fresenius and Linde, while Continental, Deutsche Bank and Merck KGaA were biggest downside movers. CAC was led higher by ArcelorMittal, +2%, while BNP Paribas fell 0.75%.

- Austria movers: [OMV -4.1% (brokers cut)]
- Germany movers: [Nordex +6% (stronger FY12 Rev and positive outlook), Continental AG -2.1%, Elringklinger -2.3% (multiple downgrades)]
- UK movers [Sage Group -3.3% (MS re-iterates rating), Anite -8.4% (Sees FY profit in-line), Ladbrokes +6.7% (Partners with Playtech)]
- Italy movers [Seat Pagine Gialle -5.3% (earnings)]
- Switzerland movers [Helvetia +0.9% (earnings)]

- ECB's Constancio (Portugal) commented that banking union would lessen bank sovereign loop and stressed that market fragmentation was severely disrupting policy transmission

- France might have to pay 9.0B in taxes if it loses a series of disputes with EU. The cases included disputes over rules on mutual funds and a plan to tax internet service provider revenues
- Spain might cut 2013 GDP forecast to -1.0% from -0.5%
- Spain PM Rajoy reiterated the view that budget control was essential for economic recovery
- Poland Central Bank (NBP) Inflation Report mixed forecasts for growth and inflatin. The NBP cut 2013 CPI view to 1.6% from 2.5% prior while raised 2014 CPI to 1.6% from 1.5% prior. On growth had the central bank cut 2013 GDP to 1.3% v 1.5% prior but raised 2014 GDP to 2.6% v 2.3% prior
- Norway Fin Min Johnsen commented that the 2014 budget was challenging and stressed that it was important for the NOK currency exchange rate and its framework for exporters' would be an important 2014 budget theme
- BOJ Ishida commented that current asset buys were virtually open ended and saw no difference between current asset buying and open-ended purchases. BOJ has so far felt buying JGB's of 3 years or less good enough but personally believed open-ended buys had already begun. BOJ should decide whether to buy longer-term JGB's after examining pros and cons
- South Korea Fin Min nominee: Rapid Yen depreciation could increase volatility for the Won and other local assets
- PBoC's Yi Gang: Reiterates yuan trading band of 1.0% is appropriate
- Govt Spokesperson: China Central Banker Zhou elected to a senior post at the state advisory body CPPCC

- The major FX pairs began to session in consolidation mode following Friday USD rally. The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.30 handle with its price movement contained from option=related flows ahead of expiration.
- The peripheral yields saw a divergence between Italy and Spain. The Italian 10-year yield was edging to move above its Spanish counterpart, something that has not occurred in some time. On late Friday Fitch downgraded Italy's sovereign rating to BBB+ from A- with a negative outlook, The German Jun Bund contract was higher and said to be attributed to safe haven demand.

Political/In the Papers:
- Japan BoJ Gov nominee Kuroda said the size and type of assets that BOJ buys now is not enough to achieve 2% inflation and that they would need to examine more effective easing methods.
- The Fed's Duke (moderate, FOMC voter) speaking on Saturday said that it may be appropriate at some point to adjust Fed MBS purchases in response to market developments
- South Korea and the US began annual military drills over the weekend, in response North Korea followed through on prior threats cutting off a communications Red Cross hotline between the two countries.
- WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed officials likely to require several more upbeat employment reports before they can hint less concern over the health of the US labor market

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Foreign Ministers hold Meeting in Brussels
- Hungary parliament vote on amendments to the constitution.
- (ES) Spain Jan YTD Budget Balance: No est v -40.3B prior
- (PE) Peru Jan Trade Balance: No est v $679M prior
- (CY) Cyprus Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.1% prior
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 6-Month BuBills; avg yield % v +0.0203% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.9x prior
- 07:00 (PL) Portugal Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.8% prior

- 07:00 (IS) Israel to sell 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2023 and 2041 bonds
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey


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