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Tuesday March 12, 2013 - 03:37:23 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 12-Mar-2013 -0334 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Dow Jones (14447.29, +0.35%) ended in the green at a record high. 14500 now is in touching distance. The rise from 13800 has been good without any profit booking.

A-Pac is mostly in the green with Australia (5149.30, -0.21%), Hang Seng (23203.37, +0.49%) and Taiwan (8058.98, +0.25%).

Shanghai (2322.84, +0.53%) is slightly higher but has resistance near current levels. Which if held can put some pressure for a break of 2300. It can also trade sideways in the 2375-2260 range.

Nikkei (12391.84, +0.35%) continues to rise and can see further higher levels of 12800 as well in the coming days. The uptrend continues, it seems that we will have to wait for some more time to see a correction in the index.

Nifty (5942.35, -0.06%) was flat yesterday. It has resistance at current levels on the daily line charts and the 21 Moving average resistance on the 3-Day line charts (Take a look http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/niftyma.shtml#ma). We need to break this resistance strongly to see further higher levels of 6000+.


COMMODITIES
Nymex can rise further while it holds it immediate support and Brent is at the support. Gold is flat, Silver is ranged while Copper can rise further.

Nymex Crude (92.20, +0.15%) is slightly above its 92.00 level. Having risen from an important support on the 3-Day and the weekly charts we can see it gaining further ground towards 98+ levels while it holds above 89-88. We need to be cautious on oil.

Brent (110.21, -0.01%) continues to stay flat near its support of 110-09. A failure to rise from this support will be a matter of concern for Brent. Hopefully it holds this support.

Gold (1583.00, +0.32%) has not moved much and it is trading flat/ranged. We will have to wait and watch as it is looking mixed currently.

Silver (28.98, +0.44%) seems to be trading in the 28-29.50 range. Silver is looking a bit mixed and we need to wait and watch.

Copper (3.52, +0.23%) seems to be holding its 3.50 support while that holds a further rise towards 3.70 is likely.


CURRENCIES
Important for the Rupee: the Brazilan central bank sold $1 bln worth of Reals yesterday to weaken the currency. The Real has weakened to 1.9569 from Friday's level of 1.9442. That could lead to some weakness for the Rupee, which closed near 54.4150 yesterday. Let's see.

The Euro (1.3030) is holding above the 1.2950 Support, but is not being able to rise much either. However, it looks strong on the Crosses, and that might limit its downside against the Dollar. The Euro-Yen (125.90) is testing Friday's high of 125.93 and can target 127.00-70. Dollar-Yen (96.60) inched higher through all of yesterday and has risen further today. We can target 97.50-97.90 on Dollar-Yen.

Weakness in the Yen is benefitting the Aussie (1.0293) which has gained strongly through yesterday. Rising yields are giving it an advantage against the US Dollar also. Further rise towards 1.0350/ 0400 might be possible.

The Pound (1.4905) continues to be in a downtrend with Resistance at 1.4965. But, there could be some Support near 1.4865, near yesterday's low on the Monthly Line chart. With consensus being totally bearish on the Pound, there is some chance it might spring a nasty surprise.

Dollar-Swiss (0.9488) has dropped from Friday's high near 0.9552, but might inch further up towards 0.9650 if it stays above 0.9400. The EURCHF (1.2365) is inching up slowly and that may help USDCHF move up as well.


INTEREST RATES
We mentioned rising Aussie yields above. The 10-Yr (3.58%) is higher than the US 10-Yr (2.07%). The Spread (1.41%) has risen slightly over the last six months, giving the Aussie a slight yield advantage over the US Dollar. That said, the Spread has been more or less stable for the last several months, explaing to some extent the ranged behaviour of the Aussie.

The US 10-Yr (2.07%) continues to rise. The Germany-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.17%) is managing to remain above -0.20% in the near term and the 10-Yr Spread (-0.55%) is close to a long-term Support near -0.65%. The Spain-Germany 10-Yr (3.24%) also continues to fall. All these factors could limit the Euro's fall.

The US Bond-JGB 10-Yr Spread (1.40%) continues to move higher, propelling Dollar-Yen higher. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdjpydiff.shtml#usdjpy

The European bond market situation continues to stabilise overall. The new action continues to be on the Japanese side.


DATA TODAY
5:30 or 11:00 IN IIP
...Previous -0.56 %

9:30 or 15:00 UK Trade Balance
...Expected -8.80 (Bln) ...Previous -8.90 (Bln)


DATA YESTERDAY

IN Trade bal
...Actual -14.92 $ Bln ...Previous -20.00 $ Bln

 

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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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John M. Bland, MBA
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