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Tuesday March 12, 2013 - 10:37:38 GMT
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GBP hit fresh lows since summer 2010 below 1.4850 following disappointing industrial production data (and ignored better trade numbers) EU Market Update: GBP hits fresh 2 lows following disappointing production data; Spanish bill auction results were again solid
Tue, 12 Mar 2013 6:12 AM EST

- USD/JPY pair rose to 3.5 year highs on growing expectations for early BOJ easing actions; yen off worst level after DPJ opposition reiterated opposition to Iwati as Dep gov
- Japan Consumer Confidence at 5-year high
- F X dealer circulating of CNY band widening to 3% (**Note: current band is 1% and last widened back in April 2012)
- BoJ Minutes noted that some members suggested buying longer maturity bonds and more risk assets
- BoJ Nominee Iwata: Good to revise BoJ Law & add employment to mandate; inappropriate to set hard target; must proceed with QE to continue current trend of weak yen & stock rally
- BoJ Nominee Kuroda: repeats will do whatever it takes to beat deflation; more easing needed; wants debate on cutting IoER
- Dow Jones rose for the seventh consecutive session to close at a fresh record high
- Hungary lawmakers amend constitution to weaken democracy
- GBP at fresh 2 year lows following weaker Industrial and manufacturing production data;
- Italy and Spain tested markets with bill sales today; Spanish results were solid selling just above indicated range with lower yields
- Italy 12-month yields at highest level since Dec 2012 at 1.280%

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Feb Consumer Confidence: 44.3 v 43.0e
- (IN) India Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: +2.4% v +1.3%e
- (IN) India Feb CPI Y/Y:10.9% v 10.6%
- (DE) Germany Feb Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (DE) Germany Feb Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (DE) Germany Feb Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 2.3% prior
- (FR) France Jan Current Account: -5.0B v -3.8B prior
- (ES) Spain Jan House transactions Y/Y: 18.9% v 2.3% prior
- (HU) Hungary Feb Consumer Prices M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.1%e
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 Current Account Balance (ZAR): -212.6B v -203.1Be; Percentage to GDP: -6.5% v -6.3%e
- (TR) Turkey Jan Current Account: -$5.6B v -$5.3Be
- (EU) ECB: 24M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 15M prior; 131.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 134.1B prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb CPI Headline Rate M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%e; CPI Level: 313.39 v 313.14e
- (SE) Sweden Feb CPI Underlying Rate (CPIF) M/M:0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI (nic Tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9% prelim
- (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0% prelim
- (UK) Jan Industrial Production M/M: -1.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -1.1%e
- (UK) Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.5% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -1.0%e
- (UK) Jan Visible Trade Balance: -8.2B v -9.0Be; Total Trade Balance: -2.4B v -3.2Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -3.8B v -4.5Be
- (GR) Greece Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: -4.8% v -0.5% prior

Fixed Income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 3.48B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 0% 2016 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield 0.395% v 0.318% prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs.ZAR2.1B indicated in 2031, 2036 and 2041 bonds
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoso) sold total 5.83B vs. 4.5-5.5B indicated in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold 1.98B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.794% v 0.859% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.22x v 2.88x prior; Max Yield: 0.820% v 0.880% prior; Tail: 2.6bps v 2.1bps prior
- Sold 3.85B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.363% v 1.548% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.85x v 1.97x prior; Max Yield 1.400% v 1.580% prior; Tail: 3.7bps v 3.2bps prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 7.75B vs. 7.75B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.280% (highest since Dec vs. 1.094% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.50x v 1.38x prior


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,510
, DAX flat at 7,983, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,834, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 8,592, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 16,189, SMI +0.30% at 7,779, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,548

- European equity markets are mostly higher, led by gains in the Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX-35, which have tracked the gains in peripheral bond prices. European banks are mostly higher, led by Commerzbank. Later today, Italy's largest bank Intesa is due to report its FY earnings. Resource related firms are mostly lower, in line with the weakness in copper and oil prices.

- UK movers [Antofagasta +3% (special dividend), IG Group +6.5% (Q3 sales above expectations), St. Ives +1.5% (raised dividend) ;SDL -11% (FY profits declined y/y),St. James Place -2.5% (share placement), British Land -2.5% (share placement)]
- Germany movers [Commerzbank +2% (asset sale speculation),TUI AG +1.5% (broker commentary),Fraport -2.5% (FY sales and outlook below ests), Symrise -2.5% (margins declined y/y)]
- Switzerland movers [DKSH +2.5% (special dividend); Gurit -5% (FY profits declined y/y)]
- The Netherlands movers [SBM Offshore +16% (settlement agreement)]

- German Econ Min Roesler reiterated view that German economy was on the threshold towards recovery in spring
and expected exports to gradually pick up
- Chancellor Osborne and Liberal democrats seek to extend FLS beyond 2013 with reports that they would also like the amount increase and the focus put more on business lending vs. mortgages
- German Bundesbank 2012 Annual Report noting that the net profit was 664M vs. 643M y/y. Risk provision raised by 6.7B to 14.4B
- German Bundesbank President Weidmann: German economy still in good shape but the debt crisis remained biggest risk to domestic economy. Short term inflation risks declining
- Poland Central Bank Gov Belka commented that CPI could move below 1.5% and he did not exclude more monetary easing if economy performed worse than projections. He believes the central bank was not too late to begin its easing cycle and would not advise further Polish fiscal consolidation
- Hungary PM Orban: Hungary wants to cut foreign ownership of banks, wants min 50% of banking system in local hands
- Fitch affirmed Denmark AAA sovereign rating; outlook stable
- Hungary Party official Rogan: Germany and France are pressuring Hungary on utility price cuts
- India Govt official stated that there was space for monetary policy easing to support economic growth (*Note: The next RBI rate decision is on Tuesday, Mar 19th)
- Japan DPJ (opposition) member: To support nomination of Kuroda as BOJ Gov his time around but the party to oppose nominee Iwata for BOJ (**Insight: Kuroda is currently being nominated for the March 29th to April 8th period

- The session was quiet although concerns about economic trouble in Europe continued to beset sentiment coupled with Italy's political gridlock.
- The EUR/USD remained locked around the 1.30 handle with 1.2960 continued to be pivotal short-term support.
- GBP hit fresh lows since summer 2010 below 1.4850 following disappointing industrial production data (and ignored better trade numbers) Overall traders still salivated to sell cable on rallies but did not get an opportunity in the session
- The JPY was off its 3.5 year lows after Japan DPJ (opposition) member noted that the party to oppose nominee Iwata for BOJ. The USD/JPY tested
- ZAR currency at 4-year low against USD following current account data pair trade above 9.20

Political/In the Papers:
-(DE) Germany Econ Min Roesler: Govt has agreed on a structural balanced budget for 2014
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras to meet with troika officials later Tuesday to reach an agreement on structural reforms including civil servant layoffs - ekathimerini
- (CY) Cyprus won't ask Greece to cover any of the bank recap- Imerisia
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy to present a 100 step plan today to combat youth unemployment- Spanish Press
-(JP) Japan BoJ Gov-nominee Kuroda may deliver surprise policy easing measures as soon as he takes office, prior to the next regularly scheduled BOJ meeting April 3rd - Japanese press
-(JP) Japan Dep Gov Nominee Iwata: Not yet considering if interim policy meeting should be held; Thinks it is okay to scrap interest rate on excessive reserves; Does not see any reason to set 0.1% floor on money rates.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CN) China Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan to hold briefing
- (SY) Syrian National Coalition Meet in Turkey
- (MX) Mexico Feb ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- (PT) Bank of Portugal releases Data on Banks
- (PT) Portugal Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: % v 0.1%e; Y/Y: % v 0.1%e
- (PT) Portugal Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.0%e; Y/Y: % v 0.3%e
- (LX) Luxembourg to sell 15-year euro-denominated benchmark bond; Guidance seen mid-high single digits over mid-swaps
- 06:15 (EU) ECB announces allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 06:15 (EU) ECB announces allotment in 1-Month Refinancing Tender
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to Sell 3-Month Bills
- 06:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell up to 3.3B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- 06:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-Month Bills
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell an additional 1.0B in 0.1% I/L 2023 Bund
- 07:00 (IS) Israel Feb Trade Balance: No est v -$1.5B prior
- 07:00 (PT) Portugal Jan Trade Balance: No est v -934M prior
- 07:00 (PT) Portugal Jan Construction Works Index: No est v 47.7 prior
- 07:00 (EU) OECD Jan Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.0% prior
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey to sell New Zero 2014 Bonds
- 07:30 (US) Feb NFIB Small Business Optimism: 90.0e v 88.9 prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 07:30 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 07:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (EU) ECB Allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender
- 08:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin attending function
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 10:00 (US) Jan JOLTs Job Openings: No est v 3.617M prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Industrial Production M/M: +0.5%e v -2.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.3%e v -1.1% prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Jan CNU Capacity Utilization: 81.0%e v 80.9% prior
- 10:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:30 (FI) Bank of Finland Governor Liikanen Speaks
- 10:45 (UK) BOE to buy 1.1B in +15-year Gilts
- 11:00 (UK) Feb NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.0% prior
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (FI) ECB's Liikanen speaks on the ECB & Banking Union in Helsinki
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $45B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) Mar DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 12:30 IMF Dep Min Zhu
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 3-Year Notes
- 13:15 (CH) Swiss Finance Minister Widmer-Schlumpf speaks in Bern
- 14:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speech
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories




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